Educational data mining for students’ academic performance analysis in selected Ethiopian universities

Universities are working in a very dynamic and powerfully viable environment today. Due to the advent of information technology, they gather large volumes of data related to their students in electronic form in various formats like records, files, documents, images, sound, videos, scientific data and many new data formats. This study focuses on predicting performance of student at an early stage of the degree program, in order to help the university not only to focus more on bright students but also to initially identify students with low academic achievement and find ways to support them. The knowledge is hidden among the educational data set and it is extractable through data mining techniques. The aim of this paper is to use data mining methodologies to design and develop a Data Mining model to predict academic performance of students at the end of first year degree program in selected Ethiopian higher educational institutions (universities).The data of different undergraduate students has been mined with decision tree classifiers. A model is built using C4.5 Decision tree learning algorithm – generates five classification rule set classifiers (predictors) in an experiment. The experiment using a test data set produces 81.4% accuracy.Keywords: Educational Data, Educational Data mining, Decision tree, Classification rule, C4.

Grain-supply response in Ethiopia: An error-correction approach

This paper quantifies the responsiveness of producers of teff, wheat, maize and sorghum to incentives using an error-correction model (ECM). It is found that planned supply of these crops is positively affected by own price, negatively by prices of substitute crops and variously by structural breaks related to policy changes and the occurrence of natural calamities. It has found significant long-run price elasticities for all crop types and insignificant short-run price elasticities for all crops but maize. Higher and significant long-run price elasticities as compared to lower and insignificant short-run price elasticities are attributable to various factors, namely structural constraints, the theory of supply and the conviction that farmers respond when they are certain that price changes are permanent. The paper concludes that farmers do respond to incentive changes. Thus attempts, which directly or indirectly tax agriculture with the belief that the sector is non-responsive to incentives, harm its growth and its contribution to growth in other sectors of the economy.Crop Production/Industries,

Byssinosis and other respiratory symptoms among factory workers in Akaki textile factory, Ethiopia

Background: Textile cotton workers are at risk for occupational lung disease, including Byssinosis and chronic Bronchitis. Byssinosis is primarily associated with exposure to cotton dust.Objectives: To determine the prevalence of and factors associated with byssinosis and respiratory symptoms among workers in cotton mills of Akaki textile factory.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 417 randomly selected factory workers. Information was collected through interview using the modified American Thoracic Society standard respiratory symptoms questionnaires. Forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC ratio were measured using portable medical spirometers. Area sampling for cotton dust concentration in the work environment was measured using Data RAM 4 real time measurement for 8 hours during a day shift.Results: The highest prevalence of respiratory symptoms was found in the carding section - cough 77%, phlegm 62%, chest tightness 46% and dyspnea 62%. The Overall prevalence of chronic bronchitis was 32%. Those working in the carding section appeared 13 times more likely to have chronic bronchitis compared to other sections (Adjusted OR=13.4, 95% CI 3.43-52.6). The prevalence of byssinosis was 38%; the highest being recorded in the carding section at 84.6%. High exposure to cotton dust was noted among those in the blowing and carding section at mean dust levels of 32.2 mg/m3 and 8 mg/m3, respectively. About 11% of byssinotics developed severe chronic FEV1 changes. Conclusion: This study provides evidence of a strong relationship between exposure to cotton dust and byssinosis and other respiratory impairments, which is mediated through chronic ventilator impairments. Preventive measures are warranted in order to reduce the high prevalence of byssinosis and other respiratory disorders in textile manufacturing. [Ethiop. J .Health Dev. 2010;24(2):133-139

Evaluation of disease incidence and severity and yield loss of finger millet varieties and mycelial growth inhibition of Pyricularia grisea isolates using biological antagonists and fungicides in vitro condition.

Objective: The aim of this study was to conduct a survey on the disease incidence and severity at 5 agroecological zones of Ethiopia. Moreover, the study was also designed to carry out pathogenicity test, estimate yield losses caused by test pathogen and in vitro evaluation of fungicides and biocontrol agents against finger millet blast isolates. Methodology and Results: The incidence of finger millet blast was assessed as the percentage of plants with visible symptoms in a field and greenhouse. Blast severity was also evaluated as the percentage of leaf area with symptoms. From the surveyed areas, maximum disease incidence and severity were recorded in west Wollega zone with 63.03 and 34.60%, and lowest disease incidence and severity was recorded in Awi zone with 46.7 and 15.7%, respectively. A total of 42 isolates of P. grisea were collected and isolated from infected finger millet plants and wild relatives from five agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia. The pathogenicity test conducted in greenhouse on three finger millet varieties also indicated that among P. grisea isolates, Pg.11, Pg.41 and Pg.40 showed the highest disease incidence on all the three varieties with 74.8, 69.5 and 66.5%, respectively. Moreover, the highest disease severity with 27.7 and 27.8% were observed by isolates Pg.11 and Pg.41, respectively. In vitro evaluation and testing of Trichoderma viride have showed maximum mycelial growth inhibition with 77.1% and 74.1% by isolates Pg.41 and Pg.22, respectively; while Pseudomonas fluorescens showed maximum mycelial growth inhibition by isolates Pg.40 (57.2%), followed by Pg.26 (56.1%). The efficacy tests of four fungicides evaluated for their antifungal activity showed Sancozeb (85.50- 88.40%) as the most effective fungicide to inhibit mycelial growth of P. grisea.Conclusion and application of findings: The highest percent of mycelial growth inhibition of P. grisea isolates was observed by T.harzianum and T. viride and followed by Pseudomonas fluorescens. Sancozeb was the most effective fungicide and also showed the highest mycelial growth inhibition on the isolate of P. grisea and followed by ridomil, bayleton, and curzate. From in vitro evaluation of the effectiveness of biological agents and fungicides against the mycelia growth of P.grisea isolates, fungicides were most effective for the control of blast disease of finger millet than biological agents.Keywords: Biocontrol, Blast disease, Eleusine coracana, Fungicide, Pyricularia grisea

Experience of stigma and discrimination and the implications for healthcare seeking behavior among people living with HIV/AIDS in resource-limited setting

Background: Stigma and discrimination can limit access to care and treatment services. Stigma hides HIV from the public, resulting in reduced pressure for behavioral change. For effective behavior change, empirically grounded and theory-based behavioral change approaches are fundamental as a prevention interventions directed on decreasing stigma and discrimination. The objective of the study was to assess the experience of stigma and discrimination on the psychosocial and health care seeking behavior of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) in Arba Minch, Ethiopia.Methods: This study uses qualitative methods involving focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews conducted in Arba Minch town and nearby Kebeles. Our sample consisted of PLHIV and other key informants who were purposively selected. Data were analyzed manually using thematic content analysis framework.Results: It appears that the magnitude of stigma and discrimination in the area has decreased to a considerably lower level, however, the problem’s severity is still being influenced by various factors including: current residence, disclosure status and level of community’s awareness about HIV/AIDS. Care and support services provided to PLHIV were well accepted by the respondents and the majority of them were willing to make use of any service available. Health information messages that have been disseminated to the public through mass media since the start of the epidemic in 1984 and AIDS cases in 1986 have played a significant role regarding the current prevailing problem of stigma and discrimination of PLHIV.Conclusion: Stigma and discrimination have come to a level that can be tolerated by most PLHIV that live in this region, especially those who have disclosed their HIV status and were living in urban areas. This calls for a strategy that improves the rates of serostatus disclosure after HIV counseling and testing and strengthens and integrates activities in the task of expanding care and support activities.Keywords: HIV/AIDS, stigma, discrimination, EPPM, Ethiopi

Improvement of sheep skin quality after treatment with diazinon against cockle

Cockle, otherwise known as ekek locally, has been economically the most important skin defect among the tanneries in Ethiopia for the last three decades. The disease has been experimented on since 1996 when FAO sponsored the trials on sheep and goat skin improvement trial (TCP/ETH/4558&6712) and found that diazinon improved the skin quality of treated sheep at least by 1 grade. However, the trials had not been sustainable to find out what the skin quality of the lambs of the dams that had been treated with diazinon would look like. The trial carried out at Debre Birhan Agriculture Research Centre filled this gap and showed repeatedly that sheep treated against lice and keds with diazinon improved the skin quality of the adult by 1 grade and those of their lambs by 3-5 grades. It started with 367 Menz and 265 Horro sheep in October 2009 and completed in January 2011. Lice and keds count of the trial sheep was carried out before and after treatment with diazinon. After the treatment, the parasite count dropped to 0 and there was a significant difference between the skin grades of the sheep before and after treatment with diazinon at 95% confidence level. The dramatic skin quality improvement appeared in the lambs which, compared to the adult sheep skins, had improved by 89% to 90%

Effects of Drought and Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Seed Nutrition and 15N and 13C Natural Abundance Isotopes in Soybean Under Controlled Environments

The objective of the current research was to evaluate the effects of drought and elevated CO2 on seed production and seed nutrition under controlled conditions in soybean. Soybean plants were subjected to ambient and elevated CO2 and under irrigated and drought conditions. The results showed that drought or drought with elevated CO2 resulted in high protein and oleic acid, but low in oil and linoleic and linolenic acids. Significant decrease of sucrose, glucose, and fructose concentrations was noticed, but high content of raffinose and stachyose was observed. Nutrients such as N, P, K, and some micro-nutrients were reduced under drought or drought with normal or elevated CO2 concentrations. Seed δ15N (15N/14N ratio) and δ13C (13C/12C ratio) natural abundance isotopes were also altered under drought or drought with ambient or elevated CO2 concentrations, reflecting nitrogen and carbon metabolism changes. The current research demonstrated that global climate changes may lead to changes in seed nutrition, and nitrogen and carbon metabolism. Efforts of breeders to select for these traits will sustain food source and food security for humans and livestock as soybean is a major source for protein and oil for human consumption and soymeal for animals

Haplotype-tagged SNPs improve genomic prediction accuracy for Fusarium head blight resistance and yield-related traits in wheat

Genomic prediction is a powerful tool to enhance genetic gain in plant breeding. However, the method is accompanied by various complications leading to low prediction accuracy. One of the major challenges arises from the complex dimensionality of marker data. To overcome this issue, we applied two pre-selection methods for SNP markers viz. LD-based haplotype-tagging and GWAS-based trait-linked marker identification. Six different models were tested with preselected SNPs to predict the genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) of four traits measured in 419 winter wheat genotypes. Ten different sets of haplotype-tagged SNPs were selected by adjusting the level of LD thresholds. In addition, various sets of trait-linked SNPs were identified with different scenarios from the training-test combined and only from the training populations. The BRR and RR-BLUP models developed from haplotype-tagged SNPs had a higher prediction accuracy for FHB and SPW by 0.07 and 0.092, respectively, compared to the corresponding models developed without marker pre-selection. The highest prediction accuracy for SPW and FHB was achieved with tagged SNPs pruned at weak LD thresholds (r

Spatial and temporal variability of groundwater recharge in Geba basin, Northern Ethiopia

This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This author accepted manuscript is made available following 24 month embargo from date of publication (July 2017) in accordance with the publisher’s archiving policyWetSpa, a physically based, spatially distributed watershed model, has been used to study the spatial and temporal variation of recharge in the Geba basin, Northern Ethiopia. The model covers an area of about 4, 249 km2 and integrates elevation, soil and land-use data, hydrometeorological and river discharge data. The Geba basin has a highly variable topography ranging from 1000 to 3280 m with an average slope of 12.9%. The area is characterized by a distinct wet and long dry season with a mean annual precipitation of 681 mm and temperatures ranging between 6.5 °C and 32 °C. The model was simulated on daily basis for nearly four years (January 1, 2000 to December 18, 2003). It resulted in a good agreement between measured and simulated streamflow hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of almost 70% and 85% for, respectively, the calibration and validation. The water balance terms show very strong spatial and temporal variability, about 3.8% of the total precipitation is intercepted by the plant canopy; 87.5% infiltrates into the soil (of which 13% percolates, 2.7% flows laterally off and 84.2% evapotranspired from the root zone), and 7.2% is surface runoff. The mean annual recharge varies from about 45 mm (2003) to 208 mm (2001), with average of 98.6 mm/yr. On monthly basis, August has the maximum (73 mm) and December the lowest (0.1 mm) recharge. The mean annual groundwater recharge spatially varies from 0 to 371 mm; mainly controlled by the distribution of rainfall amount, followed by soil and land-use, and to a certain extent, slope. About 21% of Geba has a recharge larger than 120 mm and 1% less than 5 mm