Predicting attitudinal and behavioral responses to COVID-19 pandemic using machine learning

At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 became a global problem. Despite all the efforts to emphasize the relevance of preventive measures, not everyone adhered to them. Thus, learning more about the characteristics determining attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic is crucial to improving future interventions. In this study, we applied machine learning on the multinational data collected by the International Collaboration on the Social and Moral Psychology of COVID-19 (N = 51,404) to test the predictive efficacy of constructs from social, moral, cognitive, and personality psychology, as well as socio-demographic factors, in the attitudinal and behavioral responses to the pandemic. The results point to several valuable insights. Internalized moral identity provided the most consistent predictive contribution-individuals perceiving moral traits as central to their self-concept reported higher adherence to preventive measures. Similar results were found for morality as cooperation, symbolized moral identity, self-control, open-mindedness, and collective narcissism, while the inverse relationship was evident for the endorsement of conspiracy theories. However, we also found a non-neglible variability in the explained variance and predictive contributions with respect to macro-level factors such as the pandemic stage or cultural region. Overall, the results underscore the importance of morality-related and contextual factors in understanding adherence to public health recommendations during the pandemic.Published versio

Immunoglobulin, glucocorticoid, or combination therapy for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: a propensity-weighted cohort study

Background Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a hyperinflammatory condition associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, has emerged as a serious illness in children worldwide. Immunoglobulin or glucocorticoids, or both, are currently recommended treatments. Methods The Best Available Treatment Study evaluated immunomodulatory treatments for MIS-C in an international observational cohort. Analysis of the first 614 patients was previously reported. In this propensity-weighted cohort study, clinical and outcome data from children with suspected or proven MIS-C were collected onto a web-based Research Electronic Data Capture database. After excluding neonates and incomplete or duplicate records, inverse probability weighting was used to compare primary treatments with intravenous immunoglobulin, intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, or glucocorticoids alone, using intravenous immunoglobulin as the reference treatment. Primary outcomes were a composite of inotropic or ventilator support from the second day after treatment initiation, or death, and time to improvement on an ordinal clinical severity scale. Secondary outcomes included treatment escalation, clinical deterioration, fever, and coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN69546370. Findings We enrolled 2101 children (aged 0 months to 19 years) with clinically diagnosed MIS-C from 39 countries between June 14, 2020, and April 25, 2022, and, following exclusions, 2009 patients were included for analysis (median age 8·0 years [IQR 4·2–11·4], 1191 [59·3%] male and 818 [40·7%] female, and 825 [41·1%] White). 680 (33·8%) patients received primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin, 698 (34·7%) with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, 487 (24·2%) with glucocorticoids alone; 59 (2·9%) patients received other combinations, including biologicals, and 85 (4·2%) patients received no immunomodulators. There were no significant differences between treatments for primary outcomes for the 1586 patients with complete baseline and outcome data that were considered for primary analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for ventilation, inotropic support, or death were 1·09 (95% CI 0·75–1·58; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids and 0·93 (0·58–1·47; corrected p value=1·00) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Adjusted average hazard ratios for time to improvement were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91–1·20; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, and 0·84 (0·70–1·00; corrected p value=0·22) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Treatment escalation was less frequent for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids (OR 0·15 [95% CI 0·11–0·20]; p<0·0001) and glucocorticoids alone (0·68 [0·50–0·93]; p=0·014) versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Persistent fever (from day 2 onward) was less common with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids compared with either intravenous immunoglobulin alone (OR 0·50 [95% CI 0·38–0·67]; p<0·0001) or glucocorticoids alone (0·63 [0·45–0·88]; p=0·0058). Coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution did not differ significantly between treatment groups. Interpretation Recovery rates, including occurrence and resolution of coronary artery aneurysms, were similar for primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin when compared to glucocorticoids or intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids. Initial treatment with glucocorticoids appears to be a safe alternative to immunoglobulin or combined therapy, and might be advantageous in view of the cost and limited availability of intravenous immunoglobulin in many countries. Funding Imperial College London, the European Union's Horizon 2020, Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Foundation, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and National Institutes of Health

Physicochemical characterization of nopal pads (Opuntia ficus indica) and dry vacuum nopal powders as a function of the maturation

This paper presents the physicochemical and nutrimental characterization of fresh nopal (Opuntia ficus indica, Redonda variety) and nopal powder produced at different stages of development. Nopal powder was obtained by dry vacuum technique using 10(2) Torr and low temperature (40 degrees C). The results showed that the nutrimental and mineral composition of nopal changes as a function of the maturation as follow: The ash content increases from 18.41 for nopalitos (60 g of weight) to 23.24% (nopal pads 200 g

Análise espaço-temporal da doença de Chagas e seus fatores de risco ambientais e demográficos no município de Barcarena, Pará, Brasil

To the Federal University of Pará (UFPA), to the Laboratory of Epidemiology and Geoprocessing (EpiGeo) of the University of the State of Pará (UEPA), to the Laboratory of Geoprocessing of the Evandro Chagas Institute (LabGeo/IEC), to the Health Department of the Municipality of Barcarena (SESMUB), to the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) and the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq).Universidade do Estado do Pará. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade do Estado do Pará. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade do Estado do Pará. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade do Estado do Pará. Belém, PA, Brazil.Ministério da Saúde. Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brasil.Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Barcarena. Barcarena, PA, Brazil.Universidade do Estado do Pará. Belém, PA, Brazil.Universidade do Estado do Pará. Belém, PA, Brazil.Introduction: Chagas disease is a parasitosis considered a serious problem of public health. In the municipality of Barcarena, Pará, from 2007 to 2014, occurred the highest prevalence of this disease in Brazil. Objective: To analyze the disease distribution related to epidemiological, environmental and demographic variables, in the area and period of the study. Methods: Epidemiological and demographic data of Barcarena Health Department and satellite images from the National Institute For Space Research (INPE) were used. The deforestation data were obtained through satellite image classification, using artificial neural network. The statistical significance was done with the χ2 test, and the spatial dependence tests among the variables were done using Kernel and Moran techniques. Results: The epidemiological curve indicated a disease seasonal pattern. The major percentage of the cases were in male, brown skin color, adult, illiterate, urban areas and with probable oral contamination. It was confirmed the spatial dependence of the disease cases with the different types of deforestation identified in the municipality, as well as agglomerations of cases in urban and rural areas. Discussion: The disease distribution did not occur homogeneously, possibly due to the municipality demographic dynamics, with intense migratory flows that generates the deforestation. Conclusion: Different relationships among the variables studied and the occurrence of the disease in the municipality were observed. The technologies used were satisfactory to construct the disease epidemiological scenarios