Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models.

BACKGROUND: Serological data are increasingly being used to monitor malaria transmission intensity and have been demonstrated to be particularly useful in areas of low transmission where traditional measures such as EIR and parasite prevalence are limited. The seroconversion rate (SCR) is usually estimated using catalytic models in which the measured antibody levels are used to categorize individuals as seropositive or seronegative. One limitation of this approach is the requirement to impose a fixed cut-off to distinguish seropositive and negative individuals. Furthermore, the continuous variation in antibody levels is ignored thereby potentially reducing the precision of the estimate. METHODS: An age-specific density model which mimics antibody acquisition and loss was developed to make full use of the information provided by serological measures of antibody levels. This was fitted to blood-stage antibody density data from 12 villages at varying transmission intensity in Northern Tanzania to estimate the exposure rate as an alternative measure of transmission intensity. RESULTS: The results show a high correlation between the exposure rate estimates obtained and the estimated SCR obtained from a catalytic model (r = 0.95) and with two derived measures of EIR (r = 0.74 and r = 0.81). Estimates of exposure rate obtained with the density model were also more precise than those derived from catalytic models. CONCLUSION: This approach, if validated across different epidemiological settings, could be a useful alternative framework for quantifying transmission intensity, which makes more complete use of serological data

Preventing the Reintroduction of Malaria in Mauritius: A Programmatic and Financial Assessment

Sustaining elimination of malaria in areas with high receptivity and vulnerability will require effective strategies to prevent reestablishment of local transmission, yet there is a dearth of evidence about this phase. Mauritius offers a uniquely informative history, with elimination of local transmission in 1969, re-emergence in 1975, and second elimination in 1998. Towards this end, Mauritius's elimination and prevention of reintroduction (POR) programs were analyzed via a comprehensive review of literature and government documents, supplemented by program observation and interviews with policy makers and program personnel. The impact of the country's most costly intervention, a passenger screening program, was assessed quantitatively using simulation modeling

Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens

Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various “Ross-Macdonald” mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention

Global warming and malaria: knowing the horse before hitching the cart

Speculations on the potential impact of climate change on human health frequently focus on malaria. Predictions are common that in the coming decades, tens – even hundreds – of millions more cases will occur in regions where the disease is already present, and that transmission will extend to higher latitudes and altitudes. Such predictions, sometimes supported by simple models, are persuasive because they are intuitive, but they sidestep factors that are key to the transmission and epidemiology of the disease: the ecology and behaviour of both humans and vectors, and the immunity of the human population. A holistic view of the natural history of the disease, in the context of these factors and in the precise setting where it is transmitted, is the only valid starting point for assessing the likely significance of future changes in climate

Marked variation in MSP-119 antibody responses to malaria in western Kenyan highlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Assessment of malaria endemicity at different altitudes and transmission intensities, in the era of dwindling vector densities in the highlands, will provide valuable information for malaria control and surveillance. Measurement of serum anti-malarial antibodies is a useful marker of malaria exposure that indicates long-term transmission potential. We studied the serologic evidence of malaria endemicity at two highland sites along a transmission intensity cline. An improved understanding of the micro-geographic variation in malaria exposure in the highland ecosystems will be relevant in planning effective malaria control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Total IgG levels to <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>MSP-1₁₉were measured in an age-stratified cohort (< 5, 5-14 and ≥ 15 years) in 795 participants from an uphill and valley bottom residents during low and high malaria transmission seasons. Antibody prevalence and level was compared between different localities. Regression analysis was performed to examine the association between antibody prevalence and parasite prevalence. Age-specific MSP-1₁₉seroprevalence data was fitted to a simple reversible catalytic model to investigate the relationship between parasite exposure and age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Higher MSP-1₁₉seroprevalence and density were observed in the valley residents than in the uphill dwellers. Adults (> 15 years) recorded high and stable immune response in spite of changing seasons. Lower responses were observed in children (≤ 15 years), which, fluctuated with changing seasons particularly in the valley residents. In the uphill population, annual seroconversion rate (SCR) was 8.3% and reversion rate was 3.0%, with seroprevalence reaching a plateau of 73.3% by age of 20. Contrary, in the valley bottom population, the annual SCR was 35.8% and the annual seroreversion rate was 3.5%, and seroprevalence in the population had reached 91.2% by age 10.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study reveals the micro-geographic variation in malaria endemicity in the highland eco-system; this validates the usefulness of sero-epidemiological tools in assessing malaria endemicity in the era of decreasing sensitivity of conventional tools.</p

Molecular identification of Palearctic members of Anopheles maculipennis in northern Iran

BACKGROUND: Members of Anopheles maculipennis complex are effective malaria vectors in Europe and the Caspian Sea region in northern Iran, where malaria has been re-introduced since 1994. The current study has been designed in order to provide further evidence on the status of species composition and to identify more accurately the members of the maculipennis complex in northern Iran. METHODS: The second internal transcribed spacer of ribosomal DNA (rDNA-ITS2) was sequenced in 28 out of 235 specimens that were collected in the five provinces of East Azerbayjan, Ardebil, Guilan, Mazandaran and Khorassan in Iran. RESULTS: The length of the ITS2 ranged from 283 to 302 bp with a GC content of 49.33 – 54.76%. No intra-specific variations were observed. Construction of phylogenetic tree based on the ITS2 sequence revealed that the six Iranian members of the maculipennis complex could be easily clustered into three groups: the An. atroparvus – Anopheles labranchiae group; the paraphyletic group of An. maculipennis, An. messeae, An. persiensis; and An. sacharovi as the third group. CONCLUSION: Detection of three species of the An. maculipennis complex including An. atroparvus, An. messae and An. labranchiae, as shown as new records in northern Iran, is somehow alarming. A better understanding of the epidemiology of malaria on both sides of the Caspian Sea may be provided by applying the molecular techniques to the correct identification of species complexes, to the detection of Plasmodium composition in Anopheles vectors and to the status of insecticide resistance by looking to related genes

How absolute is zero? An evaluation of historical and current definitions of malaria elimination

Decisions to eliminate malaria from all or part of a country involve a complex set of factors, and this complexity is compounded by ambiguity surrounding some of the key terminology, most notably "control" and "elimination." It is impossible to forecast resource and operational requirements accurately if endpoints have not been defined clearly, yet even during the Global Malaria Eradication Program, debate raged over the precise definition of "eradication." Analogous deliberations regarding the meaning of "elimination" and "control" are basically nonexistent today despite these terms' core importance to programme planning. To advance the contemporary debate about these issues, this paper presents a historical review of commonly used terms, including control, elimination, and eradication, to help contextualize current understanding of these concepts. The review has been supported by analysis of the underlying mathematical concepts on which these definitions are based through simple branching process models that describe the proliferation of malaria cases following importation. Through this analysis, the importance of pragmatic definitions that are useful for providing malaria control and elimination programmes with a practical set of strategic milestones is emphasized, and it is argued that current conceptions of elimination in particular fail to achieve these requirements. To provide all countries with precise targets, new conceptual definitions are suggested to more precisely describe the old goals of "control" - here more exactly named "controlled low-endemic malaria" - and "elimination." Additionally, it is argued that a third state, called "controlled non-endemic malaria," is required to describe the epidemiological condition in which endemic transmission has been interrupted, but malaria resulting from onwards transmission from imported infections continues to occur at a sufficiently high level that elimination has not been achieved. Finally, guidelines are discussed for deriving the separate operational definitions and metrics that will be required to make these concepts relevant, measurable, and achievable for a particular environment