Inferring Population Preferences via Mixtures of Spatial Voting Models

Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.Comment: To be published in the 8th International Conference on Social Informatics (SocInfo) 201

What two models may teach us about duality violations in QCD

Though the operator product expansion is applicable in the calculation of current correlation functions in the Euclidean region, when approaching the Minkowskian domain, violations of quark-hadron duality are expected to occur, due to the presence of bound-state or resonance poles. In QCD finite-energy sum rules, contour integrals in the complex energy plane down to the Minkowskian axis have to be performed, and thus the question arises what the impact of duality violations may be. The structure and possible relevance of duality violations is investigated on the basis of two models: the Coulomb system and a model for light-quark correlators which has already been studied previously. As might yet be naively expected, duality violations are in some sense "maximal" for zero-width bound states and they become weaker for broader resonances whose poles lie further away from the physical axis. Furthermore, to a certain extent, they can be suppressed by choosing appropriate weight functions in the finite-energy sum rules. A simplified Ansatz for including effects of duality violations in phenomenological QCD sum rule analyses is discussed as well.Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures; version to appear in JHE

New mutations at the imprinted Gnas cluster show gene dosage effects of Gsα in postnatal growth and implicate XLαs in bone and fat metabolism, but not in suckling

The imprinted Gnas cluster is involved in obesity, energy metabolism, feeding behavior, and viability. Relative contribution of paternally expressed proteins XLαs, XLN1, and ALEX or a double dose of maternally expressed Gsα to phenotype has not been established. In this study, we have generated two new mutants (Ex1A-T-CON and Ex1A-T) at the Gnas cluster. Paternal inheritance of Ex1A-T-CON leads to loss of imprinting of Gsα, resulting in preweaning growth retardation followed by catch-up growth. Paternal inheritance of Ex1A-T leads to loss of imprinting of Gsα and loss of expression of XLαs and XLN1. These mice have severe preweaning growth retardation and incomplete catch-up growth. They are fully viable probably because suckling is unimpaired, unlike mutants in which the expression of all the known paternally expressed Gnasxl proteins (XLαs, XLN1 and ALEX) is compromised. We suggest that loss of ALEX is most likely responsible for the suckling defects previously observed. In adults, paternal inheritance of Ex1A-T results in an increased metabolic rate and reductions in fat mass, leptin, and bone mineral density attributable to loss of XLαs. This is, to our knowledge, the first report describing a role for XLαs in bone metabolism. We propose that XLαs is involved in the regulation of bone and adipocyte metabolism

The South, the suburbs, and the Vatican too: explaining partisan change among Catholics

This paper explains changes in partisanship among Catholics in the last quarter of the 20th Century using a theory of partisan change centered on the contexts in which Catholics lived. Catholics were part of the post-New Deal Democratic coalition, but they have become a swing demographic group. We argue that these changes in partisanship are best explained by changes in elite messages that are filtered through an individual’s social network. Those Catholics who lived or moved into the increasingly Republican suburbs and South were the Catholics who were most likely to adopt a non-Democratic partisan identity. Changes in context better explain Catholic partisanship than party abortion policy post Roe v. Wade or ideological sorting. We demonstrate evidence in support of our argument using the ANES cumulative file from 1972 through 2000

Bartenders

Skin problems in bartenders are mostly Irritant Contact Dermatitis Occasionally there is (contact) allergy to flavorings, fruits, metals, and even alcohol.</p

The Acceptability of Internet-Based Treatment and Characteristics of an Adult Sample with Obsessive Compulsive Disorder: An Internet Survey

Background: Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a disabling anxiety disorder, but most individuals delay seeking treatment. Internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) is an innovative service delivery method that may help to improve access to care, but the acceptability to consumers of such programs has not yet been established. Methodology: People with symptoms of OCD were invited to complete an online survey enquiring about demographic characteristics, symptom severity, and acceptability of Internet-based treatment. Demographic and symptom severity data were compared with people with OCD identified in a national epidemiological survey and with a sample of patients with OCD from a specialist outpatient anxiety clinic. Participants: 129 volunteers to an online Internet survey, 135 patients at a specialist anxiety disorders outpatient clinic, and 297 cases identified in a national epidemiological survey. Main Measures: Demographic characteristics, and severity of symptoms as measured by the Kessler 10-Item scale, the 12-item World Health Organisation Disability Assessment Schedule - Second Edition and the Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale - Self Report Version. Principal Findings: The Internet sample was similar demographically but reported more severe symptoms than the comparison groups, although had similar severity of symptoms of OCD compared with other clinical samples reported in the literature. Participants reported Internet-based treatment for OCD would be highly acceptable. Conclusions: Internet-based treatment may reduce barriers to accessing treatment to people with OCD. Individuals in this study were similar demographically to other samples and had similar severity of symptoms as those identified in other clinical samples, suggesting that Internet-based treatment using techniques employed in face-to-face treatment may be effective in this group. Internet-based treatments for OCD need to be developed and evaluated