Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures. Language modified in order to make it more 'bayesian'. No change in results. Version published in JHE

Maze solvers demystified and some other thoughts

There is a growing interest towards implementation of maze solving in spatially-extended physical, chemical and living systems. Several reports of prototypes attracted great publicity, e.g. maze solving with slime mould and epithelial cells, maze navigating droplets. We show that most prototypes utilise one of two phenomena: a shortest path in a maze is a path of the least resistance for fluid and current flow, and a shortest path is a path of the steepest gradient of chemoattractants. We discuss that substrates with so-called maze-solving capabilities simply trace flow currents or chemical diffusion gradients. We illustrate our thoughts with a model of flow and experiments with slime mould. The chapter ends with a discussion of experiments on maze solving with plant roots and leeches which show limitations of the chemical diffusion maze-solving approach.Comment: This is a preliminary version of the chapter to be published in Adamatzky A. (Ed.) Shortest path solvers. From software to wetware. Springer, 201

Unsupervised Analysis of Classical Biomedical Markers: Robustness and Medical Relevance of Patient Clustering Using Bioinformatics Tools

Motivation: It has been proposed that clustering clinical markers, such as blood test results, can be used to stratify patients. However, the robustness of clusters formed with this approach to data pre-processing and clustering algorithm choices has not been evaluated, nor has clustering reproducibility. Here, we made use of the NHANES survey to compare clusters generated with various combinations of pre-processing and clustering algorithms, and tested their reproducibility in two separate samples. Method: Values of 44 biomarkers and 19 health/life style traits were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The 1999–2002 survey was used for training, while data from the 2003–2006 survey was tested as a validation set. Twelve combinations of pre-processing and clustering algorithms were applied to the training set. The quality of the resulting clusters was evaluated both by considering their properties and by comparative enrichment analysis. Cluster assignments were projected to the validation set (using an artificial neural network) and enrichment in health/life style traits in the resulting clusters was compared to the clusters generated from the original training set. Results: The clusters obtained with different pre-processing and clustering combinations differed both in terms of cluster quality measures and in terms of reproducibility of enrichment with health/life style properties. Z-score normalization, for example, dramatically improved cluster quality and enrichments, as compared to unprocessed data, regardless of the clustering algorithm used. Clustering diabetes patients revealed a group of patients enriched with retinopathies. This coul

Does vancomycin prescribing intervention affect vancomycin-resistant enterococcus infection and colonization in hospitals? A systematic review

BACKGROUND: Vancomycin resistant enterococcus (VRE) is a major cause of nosocomial infections in the United States and may be associated with greater morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs than vancomycin-susceptible enterococcus. Current guidelines for the control of VRE include prudent use of vancomycin. While vancomycin exposure appears to be a risk factor for VRE acquisition in individual patients, the effect of vancomycin usage at the population level is not known. We conducted a systematic review to determine the impact of reducing vancomycin use through prescribing interventions on the prevalence and incidence of VRE colonization and infection in hospitals within the United States. METHODS: To identify relevant studies, we searched three electronic databases, and hand searched selected journals. Thirteen studies from 12 articles met our inclusion criteria. Data were extracted and summarized for study setting, design, patient characteristics, types of intervention(s), and outcome measures. The relative risk, 95% confidence interval, and p-value associated with change in VRE acquisition pre- and post-vancomycin prescription interventions were calculated and compared. Heterogeneity in study results was formally explored by stratified analysis. RESULTS: No randomized clinical trials on this topic were found. Each of the 13 included studies used a quasi-experimental design of low hierarchy. Seven of the 13 studies reported statistically significant reductions in VRE acquisition following interventions, three studies reported no significant change, and three studies reported increases in VRE acquisition, one of which reported statistical significance. Results ranged from a reduction of 82.5% to an increase of 475%. Studies of specific wards, which included sicker patients, were more likely to report positive results than studies of an entire hospital including general inpatients (Fisher's exact test 0.029). The type of intervention, endemicity status, type of study design, and the duration of intervention were not found to significantly modify the results. Among the six studies that implemented vancomycin reduction strategies as the sole intervention, two of six (33%) found a significant reduction in VRE colonization and/or infection. In contrast, among studies implementing additional VRE control measures, five of seven (71%) reported a significant reduction. CONCLUSION: It was not possible to conclusively determine a potential role for vancomycin usage reductions in controlling VRE colonization and infection in hospitals in the United States. The effectiveness of such interventions and their sustainability remains poorly defined because of the heterogeneity and quality of studies. Future research using high-quality study designs and implementing vancomycin as the sole intervention are needed to answer this question

Associations of homelessness and residential mobility with length of stay after acute psychiatric admission

Background: A small number of patient-level variables have replicated associations with the length of stay (LOS) of psychiatric inpatients. Although need for housing has often been identified as a cause of delayed discharge, there has been little research into the associations between LOS and homelessness and residential mobility (moving to a new home), or the magnitude of these associations compared to other exposures. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 4885 acute psychiatric admissions to a mental health NHS Trust serving four South London boroughs. Data were taken from a comprehensive repository of anonymised electronic patient records. Analysis was performed using log-linear regression. Results: Residential mobility was associated with a 99% increase in LOS and homelessness with a 45% increase. Schizophrenia, other psychosis, the longest recent admission, residential mobility, and some items on the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS), especially ADL impairment, were also associated with increased LOS. Informal admission, drug and alcohol or other non-psychotic diagnosis and a high HoNOS self-harm score reduced LOS. Including residential mobility in the regression model produced the same increase in the variance explained as including diagnosis; only legal status was a stronger predictor. Conclusions: Homelessness and, especially, residential mobility account for a significant part of variation in LOS despite affecting a minority of psychiatric inpatients; for these people, the effect on LOS is marked. Appropriate policy responses may include attempts to avert the loss of housing in association with admission, efforts to increase housing supply and the speed at which it is made available, and reforms of payment systems to encourage this

Development and evaluation of a quality score for abstracts

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of abstracts for scientific meetings has been shown to suffer from poor inter observer reliability. A measure was developed to assess the formal quality of abstract submissions in a standardized way. METHODS: Item selection was based on scoring systems for full reports, taking into account published guidelines for structured abstracts. Interrater agreement was examined using a random sample of submissions to the American Gastroenterological Association, stratified for research type (n = 100, 1992–1995). For construct validity, the association of formal quality with acceptance for presentation was examined. A questionnaire to expert reviewers evaluated sensibility items, such as ease of use and comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The index comprised 19 items. The summary quality scores showed good interrater agreement (intra class coefficient 0.60 – 0.81). Good abstract quality was associated with abstract acceptance for presentation at the meeting. The instrument was found to be acceptable by expert reviewers. CONCLUSION: A quality index was developed for the evaluation of scientific meeting abstracts which was shown to be reliable, valid and useful