Cohabitation : the Pan-America View

In this concluding chapter we reflect on a series of issues of both a methodological and substantive nature encountered in this research project. Firstly, we must realize that the use of individual census records not only opened vast possibilities, but also entails a number of limitations. Secondly, the very large sample sizes allowed for the disaggregation of national trends into far more detailed spatial, ethnic and educational patterns. This, in its turn, allowed us to adopt a "geo-historical" view of the rise of cohabitation for almost the entire American continent, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego. Furthermore, statistical analyses could be performed at the individual and contextual levels simultaneously. Results show that the effects of social stratification, religion and ethnicity are continuing to be of major importance. This not only holds at the individual level, but at the contextual level as well. Nevertheless, an entirely new wave of change started rolling over the pre-existing patterns from the 1970s onward. These trends are following a firm course, irrespective of the economic ups and downs. The Americas, as opposed to many Asian societies and Africa, are now following in the European footsteps, be it with their own distinct and path-dependent characteristics associated with regionally varying historical antecedents

How are time-dependent childbearing intentions realized? Realization, postponement, abandonment, bringing forward

Our study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit the realization of fertility intentions. The analysis uses data collected in the first two waves of a Hungarian longitudinal survey. Fertility intentions recorded at the first wave pertain to the subsequent 3-year period, just similar to the behavior variable measuring the realization of intentions, i.e., a birth within the 3-year period in question. For this analysis, we used the respondents’ demographic, socio-structural, and orientational traits recorded at the first interview. Our findings show that age, parity, and partnership play a determining role in the realization of fertility intentions, but employment status, religious affiliation, and overall life satisfaction all exhibit significant effects. A marked gender difference was detected not only with regard to employment status but in the area of values and orientations as well.L’objectif de notre étude est d’identifier les facteurs qui facilitent ou inhibent la réalisation des intentions de fécondité. L’analyse s’appuie sur les deux premières vagues d’une enquête longitudinale menée en Hongrie. Les intentions de fécondité recueillies dans le cadre de la première vague concernent la période des trois années à venir, de la même façon que la variable de comportement mesurant la réalisation des intentions, à savoir, une naissance survenue au cours de cette même période. Les caractéristiques démographiques et socio-structurelles, de même que certaines dispositions personnelles recueillies lors du premier entretien ont été utilisées dans l’analyse. Nos résultats indiquent qu’à la fois l’âge, la parité, et la situation de couple jouent un rôle capital dans la réalisation des intentions et aussi que la situation d’emploi, l’appartenance religieuse et le niveau de satisfaction par rapport à la vie exercent une influence significative. Une différence prononcée entre hommes et femmes est mise en évidence en matière de situation d’emploi et également dans le domaine des valeurs et des dispositions personnelles

Fertility Ideals of Women and Men Across the Life Course

This paper explores the stability of women’s and men’s fertility preferences across the life course. The data come from the first six waves of the German Family Panel (pairfam), which span the period from 2008/2009 until 2013/2014. In our analysis, fertility preferences are measured using the following question: “Under ideal circumstances, how many children would you like to have?” The average number cited by both women and men is 2.2. With rising age, this number declines modestly. Relying on fixed-effects modelling, we find that neither partnership status nor economic circumstances have any causal effect on fertility preferences. However, as the number of children a respondent has increases, his or her ideal number of children is also likely to grow. Thus, fertility ideals appear to undergo changes over time, and are adjusted in line with the size of the respondent’s own family

Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention-Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel.

How do changes in employment uncertainty matter for fertility? Empirical studies on the impact of employment uncertainty on reproductive decision-making offer a variety of conclusions, ranging from gender and socio-economic differences in the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions and behaviour, to the effect of employment on changes in fertility intentions. This article analyses the association between a change in subjective employment uncertainty and fertility intentions and behaviour by distinguishing male and female partners' employment uncertainty, and examines the variation in these associations by education. Using a sample of men and women living in a couple from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP 2002-2011), we examine through multinomial analysis how changes in employment uncertainty and selected socio-demographic factors are related to individual childbearing decisions. Our results show strong gendered effects of changes in employment uncertainty on the revision of reproductive decisions among the highly educated population

Uncertainty and Narratives of the Future. A Theoretical Framework for Contemporary Fertility

Explanations for fertility decisions based on structural constraints—such as labor, housing condition, or income—do not account for the contemporary fertility downturn faced by many countries in Europe. In this paper, we posit that the rise of uncertainty is central for understanding contemporary fertility dynamics. We propose a theoretical framework (the Narrative Framework) for the study of fertility decisions under uncertain conditions based on expectations, imaginaries and narratives. Relying on the idea of future–oriented action, we argue that uncertainty needs to be conceptualized and operationalized taking into account that people use works of imagination, producing their own narrative of the future. Narratives of the future are potent driving forces helping people to act according to or despite uncertainty. We present the different elements of the Narrative Framework and address its causal validity. We conclude by highlighting the advantages of taking into account the narratives of the future in fertility research