Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

A semi-Markov model for stroke with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring.

This paper presents a parametric method of fitting semi-Markov models with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring. We investigate transition intensities in a three-state illness-death model with no recovery. We relax the Markov assumption by adjusting the intensity for the transition from state 2 (illness) to state 3 (death) for the time spent in state 2 through a time-varying covariate. This involves the exact time of the transition from state 1 (healthy) to state 2. When the data are subject to left or interval censoring, this time is unknown. In the estimation of the likelihood, we take into account interval censoring by integrating out all possible times for the transition from state 1 to state 2. For left censoring, we use an Expectation-Maximisation inspired algorithm. A simulation study reflects the performance of the method. The proposed combination of statistical procedures provides great flexibility. We illustrate the method in an application by using data on stroke onset for the older population from the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study

COVID-19 Mortality Risk in Down Syndrome: Results From a Cohort Study Of 8 Million Adults

Background: At the start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, many national health organizations emphasized nonpharmacologic interventions, such as quarantining or physical distancing. In the United Kingdom, strict self-isolation (“shielding”) was advised for those deemed to be clinically extremely vulnerable on the basis of the presence of selected medical conditions or at the discretion of their general practitioners. Down syndrome features on neither the U.K. shielding list nor the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention list of groups at “increased risk.” However, it is associated with immune dysfunction, congenital heart disease, and pulmonary pathology and, given its prevalence, may be a relevant albeit unconfirmed risk factor for severe COVID-1

Automated annotation and visualisation of high-resolution spatial proteomic mass spectrometry imaging data using HIT-MAP.

Spatial proteomics has the potential to significantly advance our understanding of biology, physiology and medicine. Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionisation mass spectrometry imaging (MALDI-MSI) is a powerful tool in the spatial proteomics field, enabling direct detection and registration of protein abundance and distribution across tissues. MALDI-MSI preserves spatial distribution and histology allowing unbiased analysis of complex, heterogeneous tissues. However, MALDI-MSI faces the challenge of simultaneous peptide quantification and identification. To overcome this, we develop and validate HIT-MAP (High-resolution Informatics Toolbox in MALDI-MSI Proteomics), an open-source bioinformatics workflow using peptide mass fingerprint analysis and a dual scoring system to computationally assign peptide and protein annotations to high mass resolution MSI datasets and generate customisable spatial distribution maps. HIT-MAP will be a valuable resource for the spatial proteomics community for analysing newly generated and retrospective datasets, enabling robust peptide and protein annotation and visualisation in a wide array of normal and disease contexts

Sliding charge density wave in manganites

The so-called stripe phase of the manganites is an important example of the complex behaviour of metal oxides, and has long been interpreted as the localisation of charge at atomic sites. Here, we demonstrate via resistance measurements on La_{0.50}Ca_{0.50}MnO_3 that this state is in fact a prototypical charge density wave (CDW) which undergoes collective transport. Dramatic resistance hysteresis effects and broadband noise properties are observed, both of which are typical of sliding CDW systems. Moreover, the high levels of disorder typical of manganites result in behaviour similar to that of well-known disordered CDW materials. Our discovery that the manganite superstructure is a CDW shows that unusual transport and structural properties do not require exotic physics, but can emerge when a well-understood phase (the CDW) coexists with disorder.Comment: 13 pages; 4 figure

The role of Comprehension in Requirements and Implications for Use Case Descriptions

Within requirements engineering it is generally accepted that in writing specifications (or indeed any requirements phase document), one attempts to produce an artefact which will be simple to comprehend for the user. That is, whether the document is intended for customers to validate requirements, or engineers to understand what the design must deliver, comprehension is an important goal for the author. Indeed, advice on producing ‘readable’ or ‘understandable’ documents is often included in courses on requirements engineering. However, few researchers, particularly within the software engineering domain, have attempted either to define or to understand the nature of comprehension and it’s implications for guidance on the production of quality requirements. Therefore, this paper examines thoroughly the nature of textual comprehension, drawing heavily from research in discourse process, and suggests some implications for requirements (and other) software documentation. In essence, we find that the guidance on writing requirements, often prevalent within software engineering, may be based upon assumptions which are an oversimplification of the nature of comprehension. Hence, the paper examines guidelines which have been proposed, in this case for use case descriptions, and the extent to which they agree with discourse process theory; before suggesting refinements to the guidelines which attempt to utilise lessons learned from our richer understanding of the underlying discourse process theory. For example, we suggest subtly different sets of writing guidelines for the different tasks of requirements, specification and design

Yours ever (well, maybe): Studies and signposts in letter writing

Electronic mail and other digital communications technologies seemingly threaten to end the era of handwritten and typed letters, now affectionately seen as part of snail mail. In this essay, I analyze a group of popular and scholarly studies about letter writing-including examples of pundits critiquing the use of e-mail, etiquette manuals advising why the handwritten letter still possesses value, historians and literary scholars studying the role of letters in the past and what it tells us about our present attitudes about digital communications technologies, and futurists predicting how we will function as personal archivists maintaining every document including e-mail. These are useful guideposts for archivists, providing both a sense of the present and the past in the role, value and nature of letters and their successors. They also provide insights into how such documents should be studied, expanding our gaze beyond the particular letters, to the tools used to create them and the traditions dictating their form and function. We also can discern a role for archivists, both for contributing to the literature about documents and in using these studies and commentaries, suggesting not a new disciplinary realm but opportunities for new interdisciplinary work. Examining a documentary form makes us more sensitive to both the innovations and traditions as it shifts from the analog to the digital; we can learn not to be caught up in hysteria or nostalgia about one form over another and archivists can learn about what they might expect in their labors to document society and its institutions. At one time, paper was part of an innovative technology, with roles very similar to the Internet and e-mail today. It may be that the shifts are far less revolutionary than is often assumed. Reading such works also suggests, finally, that archivists ought to rethink how they view their own knowledge and how it is constructed and used. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V