Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Capacity of health facilities for diagnosis and treatment of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia

Background: There are dearth of literature on the capacity of the health system to diagnose and treat HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia. In this study we evaluated the capacity of health facilities for HIV/AIDS care, its spatial distribution and variations by regions and zones in Ethiopia. Methods: We analyzed the Service Provision Assessment plus (SPA+) survey data that were collected in 2014 in all regions of Ethiopia. We assessed structural, process and overall capacity of the health system based on the Donabedian quality of care model. We included 5 structural and 8 process indicators and overall capacity score was constructed by taking the average of all indicators. Multiple linear regression was done using STATA 14 to assess the association of the location and types of health facilities with overall capacity score. Maps displaying the average capacity score at Zonal level were produced using ArcGIS Desktop v10.3 (Environmental Systems Research Institute Inc., Redlands CA, USA). Results: A total of 873 health facilities were included in the analysis. Less than 5% of the private facilities provided antiretroviral therapy (ART); had national ART guideline, baseline CD4 count or viral load and tuberculosis screening mechanisms. Nearly one-third of the health centers (34.9%) provided ART. Public hospitals have better capacity score (77.1%) than health centers (45.9%) and private health facilities (24.8%). The overall capacity score for urban facilities (57.1%) was higher than that of the rural (38.2%) health facilities (β = 15.4, 95% CI: 11.7, 19.2). Health centers (β = − 21.4, 95% CI: -25.4, − 17.4) and private health facilities (β = − 50.9, 95% CI: -54.8, − 47.1) had lower overall capacity score than hospitals. Facilities in Somali (β = − 13.8, 95% CI: -20.6, − 7.0) and SNNPR (β = − 5.0, 95% CI: -9.8, − 0.1) regions had lower overall capacity score than facilities in the Oromia region. Zones located in emerging regions such as Gambella and Benishangul Gumz and in remote areas of Oromia and SNNPR had lower capacity score in terms of process indicators. Conclusions: There is a significant geographical heterogeneity on the capacity of health facilities for HIV/AIDS care and treatment in Ethiopia. Targeted capacity improvement initiatives are recommended with focus on health centers and private health facilities, and emerging Regions and the rural and remote areas

Risk, reassurance and routine: a qualitative study of narrative understandings of the potential for HIV self-testing among men who have sex with men in England

BACKGROUND: HIV testing has seen a rapid evolution over the last decade with multiple modalities now in use globally. In recent years HIV self-testing (HIVST) has been legalised in the UK paving the way for further expansion of testing. Interventions are delivered in particular social contexts which shape uptake. It is therefore important to understand how novel interventions are likely to be received by their intended users. This study aims to understand how HIVST compliments existing testing strategies considered or adopted by men who have sex with men (MSM). We do this by analysing normative discourses surrounding HIV testing and their perceptions of HIVST's potential future roles. METHODS: Six focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with 47 MSM in London, Manchester and Plymouth. One focus group included only MSM who reported higher risk behaviours and one with those who had never tested for HIV. Data were analysed through a thematic framework analysis. RESULTS: Three main narratives for testing for HIV were identified: (i) testing in response to a specific risk event; (ii) as reassurance when there was a small amount of doubt or anxiety related to HIV; and (iii) in response to social norms perpetuated through peers, HIV community groups and the medical establishment to test regularly for HIV. HIVST had limited utility for men when testing in response to specific risk events except in the case of significant structural barriers to other testing opportunities. HIVST was considered to have utility when seeking reassurance, and was thought to be very useful when testing to satisfy the needs and expectations of others around regular testing. There was some ambivalence about the incursion of a clinical intervention into the home. CONCLUSIONS: HIVST following risk events will likely be limited to those for whom existing service provision is insufficient to meet immediate needs based on structural or personal barriers to testing. Obligations of biological citizenship are central to MSM's understanding of the utility of HIVST. In the context of discourses of biocitizenship, men perceive HIVST to have dual roles: firstly as a tool to manage (mild) anxiety around one's HIV status based on an acknowledgment of HIV vulnerability arising from being homosexually active. Secondly, HIVST is useful in complying with social norms and meeting the perceived demands of biomedicine

Medical Pluralism Predicts Non-ART Use among Parents in Need of ART: A Community Survey in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Despite documented common use of traditional healers and efforts to scale up antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, evidence on whether medical pluralism predicts ART use is inconclusive and restricted to clinic settings. This study quantitatively assesses whether medical pluralism predicts ART use among parents in need of ART in South Africa. 2,477 parents or primary caregivers of children were interviewed in HIV-endemic communities of KwaZulu-Natal. Analysis used multiple logistic regression on a subsample of 435 respondents in need of ART, who reported either medical pluralism (24.6 %) or exclusive public healthcare use (75.4 %). Of 435 parents needing ART, 60.7 % reported ART use. Medical pluralism emerged as a persistent negative predictor of ART utilization among those needing it (AOR [95 % CI] = .556 [.344 - .899], p = .017). Use of traditional healthcare services by those who need ART may act as a barrier to treatment access. Effective intersectoral collaboration at community level is urgently needed