Strong paleoearthquakes along the Talas-Fergana Fault, Kyrgyzstan

The Talas-Fergana Fault, the largest strike-slip structure in Centred. Asia, forms an obliquely oriented boundary between the northeastern and southwestern parts of the Tianshan mountain belt. The fault underwent active right-lateral strike-slip during the Paleozoic, with right-lateral movements being rejuvenated in the Late Cenozoic. Tectonic movements along the intracontinental strike-slip faults contribute to absorb part of the regional crustal shortening linked to the India-Eurasia collision; knowledge of strike-slip motions along the Talas-Fergana Fault are necessary for a complete assessment of the active deformation of the Tianshan orogen. To improve our understanding of the intracontinental deformation of the Tianshan mountain belt and the occurrence of strong earthquakes along the whole length of the Talas-Fergana Fault, we identify features of relief arising during strong paleoearthquakes along the Talas-Fergana Fault, fault segmentation, the length of seismogenic ruptures, and the energy and age of ancient catastrophes. We show that during neotectonic time the fault developed as a dextral strike-slip fault, with possible dextral displacements spreading to secondary fault planes north of the main fault trace. We determine rates of Holocene and Late Pleistocene dextral movements, and our radiocarbon dating indicates tens of strong earthquakes occurring along the fault zone during arid interval of 15800 years. The reoccurrence of strong earthquakes along the Talas-Fergana Fault zone during the second half of the Holocene is about 300 years. The next strong earthquake along the fault will most probably occur along its southeastern chain during the next several decades. Seismotectonic deformation parameters indicate that M > 7 earthquakes with oscillation intensity I > IX have occurred

Tectonic and gravity-induced deformation along the active Talas-Fergana Fault, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan

This paper shows, by field palaeoseismological data, the Holocene activity of the central segment of the intracontinental Talas-Fergana Fault (TFF), and the relevance of possible future seismic shaking on slope stability around a large water reservoir. The fault, striking NW-SE, is marked by a continuous series of scarps, deflected streams and water divides, and prehistoric earthquakes that offset substrate and Holocene deposits. Fault movements are characterised by right-lateral strike-slip kinematics with a subordinate component of uplift of the NE block. Structural, geological and geomorphological field data indicate that shallow and deep landslides are aligned along the TFF, and some of them are active. Where the TFF runs close to the reservoir, the fault trace is obscured by a series of landslides, affecting rock and soil materials and ranging in size from small slope instabilities to deep-seated gravity-induced slope deformations (DGSDs). The largest of these, which does not show clear evidence of present-day activity, involves a volume of about 1km3 and is associated with smaller but active landslides in its lower part, with volumes in the order of 2.5 7104m3 to 1 7106m3. Based on the spatial and temporal relations between landslides and faults, we argue that at least some of these slope failures may have a coseismic character. Stability analyses by means of limit equilibrium methods (LEMs), and stress-strain analysis by finite difference numerical modelling (FDM), were carried out to evaluate different hazard scenarios linked to these slope instabilities. The results indicate concern for the different threats posed, ranging from the possible disruption of the M-41 highway, the main transportation route in central Asia, to the possible collapse of huge rock masses into the reservoir, possibly generating a tsunami