Block Models of Lithosphere Dynamics and Seismicity

The necessity of catastrophe modeling is stipulated both by the essential increase of losses due to recent natural and anthropogenic hazards and by a lack of reliable real observation data. This paper focuses on risks of earthquakes. The region of Italy is considered as an example. A brief overview of different approaches in mathematical modeling of the lithosphere dynamics is presented. A model of the block structure dynamics and seismicity is described in detail and used for the analysis of the Vrancea (Romania) seismoactive region. The corresponding synthetic earthquake catalog is viewed as a basis for a possible generator of catastrophic events for estimating the seismic risks in the region

Time-optimal algorithms focused on the search for random pulsed-point sources

The article describes methods and algorithms related to the analysis of dynamically changing discrete random fields. Time-optimal strategies for the localization of pulsed-point sources having a random spatial distribution and indicating themselves by generating instant delta pulses at random times are proposed. An optimal strategy is a procedure that has a minimum (statistically) average localization time. The search is performed in accordance with the requirements for localization accuracy and is carried out by a system with one or several receiving devices. Along with the predetermined accuracy of localization of a random pulsed-point source, a significant complicating factor of the formulated problem is that the choice of the optimal search procedure is not limited to one-step algorithms that end at the moment of first pulse generation. Moreover, the article shows that even with relatively low requirements for localization accuracy, the time-optimal procedure consists of several steps, and the transition from one step to another occurs at the time of registration of the next pulse by the receiving system. In this case, the situation is acceptable when during the process of optimal search some of the generated pulses are not fixed by the receiving system. The parameters of the optimal search depending on the number of receiving devices and the required accuracy of localization are calculated and described in the paper.This work was supported in part by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (projects no 18-51-00001 and 19-01-00128), and Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (project no. № AAA-A17-117052410034-6)

Early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms based on observations of space monitoring systems

We address the problem of early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms based on the use of models of coordinates of movements of centers of solar coronal mass ejections (CME) and observations of their angular positions obtained from space monitoring systems. We propose a method for early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms, introduce a function to predict the distance between Earth and CME centers, and establish a decision-making procedure. We give an example of calculating the distance prediction function and implement the diagnostic decision-making procedure based on coordinate models and model observations of angular positions of CME centers. We determine the efficiency of the decision-making procedure for the algorithm for early diagnostics of geomagnetic storms

現行民法典を創った人びと（3）起草委員 : 穂積陳重・富井政章・梅謙次郎

Aim Over the last two decades, thousands of northward migrating ruffs (Philomachus pugnax) have disappeared from western European staging sites. These migratory ruffs were partly temperate breeding birds, but most individuals head towards the Eurasian Arctic tundras where 95% of the global population breeds. This regional decline may represent either: (1) local loss of breeding birds in western Europe, (2) a global decline, (3) shift(s) in distribution or (4) a combination of these.Location Northern Eurasia.Methods To put the declines in western Europe in context, we analysed Arctic monitoring data from the last two decades (Soloviev & Tomkovich, 2009) to detect changes in regional breeding densities across northern Eurasia. We used a novel approach applying generalized additive modelling (GAM) and generalized estimations equations (GEE).Results We show that the global breeding population of ruffs has made a significant eastwards shift into the Asian part of the breeding range. In the European Arctic, ruffs decreased during the last 18 years. At the same time, in western Siberia, ruffs increased. In eastern Siberia, no significant population changes could be detected. These changes corroborate the finding that during northward migration, growing numbers of ruffs avoided staging areas in the Netherlands and Sweden and started migrating along a more easterly route leading into western Siberia.Main conclusions We detected an unprecedented large-scale population redistribution of ruffs and suggest that this is a response to loss of habitat quality at the traditional staging site in the Netherlands

Development of a Momentum Determined Electron Beam in the 1 -45 GeV Range

A beam line for electrons with energies in the range of 1 to 45 GeV, low contamination of hadrons and muons and high intensity up to 10^6 per accelerator spill at 27 GeV was setup at U70 accelerator in Protvino, Russia. A beam tagging system based on drift chambers with 160 micron resolution was able to measure relative electron beam momentum precisely. The resolution sigma_p p was 0.13% at 45 GeV where multiple scattering is negligible. This test beam setup provided the possibility to study properties of lead tungstate crystals (PbWO_4) for the BTeV experiment at Fermilab.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures; work done by the BTeV Electromagnetic Calorimeter grou

Performance of a fine-sampling electromagnetic calorimeter prototype in the energy range from 1 to 19 GeV

The fine-sampling electromagnetic calorimeter prototype has been experimentally tested using the 1-19 GeV/c tagged beams of negatively charged particles at the U70 accelerator at IHEP, Protvino. The energy resolution measured by electrons is Delta{E}/E=2.8%/\sqrt{E} + 1.3%. The position resolution for electrons is Delta{x}=3.1 + 15.4/sqrt{E} mm in the center of the cell. The lateral non-uniformity of the prototype energy response to electrons and MIPs has turned out to be negligible. Obtained experimental results are in a good agreement with Monte-Carlo simulations.Comment: Article is prepared for pdflatex using the class elsart. 13 pages, 9 figures in 11 PDF file

Comparison of Radiation Damage in Lead Tungstate Crystals under Pion and Gamma Irradiation

Studies of the radiation hardness of lead tungstate crystals produced by the Bogoroditsk Techno-Chemical Plant in Russia and the Shanghai Institute of Ceramics in China have been carried out at IHEP, Protvino. The crystals were irradiated by a 40-GeV pion beam. After full recovery, the same crystals were irradiated using a $^{137}Cs$ $\gamma$-ray source. The dose rate profiles along the crystal length were observed to be quite similar. We compare the effects of the two types of radiation on the crystals light output.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, Latex 2e, 28.04.04 - minor grammatical change

Correlation of Beam Electron and LED Signal Losses under Irradiation and Long-term Recovery of Lead Tungstate Crystals

Radiation damage in lead tungstate crystals reduces their transparency. The calibration that relates the amount of light detected in such crystals to incident energy of photons or electrons is of paramount importance to maintaining the energy resolution the detection system. We report on tests of lead tungstate crystals, read out by photomultiplier tubes, exposed to irradiation by monoenergetic electron or pion beams. The beam electrons themselves were used to measure the scintillation light output, and a blue light emitting diode (LED) was used to track variations of crystals transparency. We report on the correlation of the LED measurement with radiation damage by the beams and also show that it can accurately monitor the crystals recovery from such damage.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, LaTeX2

LED Monitoring System for the BTeV Lead Tungstate Crystal Calorimeter Prototype

We report on the performance of a monitoring system for a prototype calorimeter for the BTeV experiment that uses Lead Tungstate crystals coupled with photomultiplier tubes. The tests were carried out at the 70 GeV accelerator complex at Protvino, Russia.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, LaTeX2e, revised versio

Design and performance of LED calibration system prototype for the lead tungstate crystal calorimeter

A highly stable monitoring system based on blue and red light emitting diodes coupled to a distribution network comprised of optical fibers has been developed for an electromagnetic calorimeter that uses lead tungstate crystals readout with photomultiplier tubes. We report of the system prototype design and on the results of laboratory tests. Stability better than 0.1% (r.m.s.) has been achieved during one week of prototype operation.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, LaTeX2