Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

A reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) for the period 1959–2006 has been derived from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. The reconstruction shows a wide range of time-variability, including a downward trend. At 26N, both the MOC intensity and changes in its vertical structure are in good agreement with previous estimates based on trans-Atlantic surveys. At 50N, the MOC and strength of the subpolar gyre are correlated at interannual time scales, but show opposite secular trends. Heat transport variability is highly correlated with the MOC but shows a smaller trend due to the warming of the upper ocean, which partially compensates for the weakening of the circulation. Results from sensitivity experiments show that although the time-varying upper boundary forcing provides useful MOC information, the sequential assimilation of ocean data further improves the MOC estimation by increasing both the mean and the time variability

How is a global sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale, distributed pesticide transfer model performed? Application to the PESHMELBA model

Pesticide transfers in agricultural catchments are responsible for diffuse but major risks to water quality. Spatialized pesticide transfer models are useful tools to assess the impact of the structure of the landscape on water quality. Before considering using these tools in operational contexts, quantifying their uncertainties is a preliminary necessary step. In this study, we explored how global sensitivity analysis could be applied to the recent PESHMELBA pesticide transfer model to quantify uncertainties on transfer simulations. We set up a virtual catchment based on a real one, and we compared different approaches for sensitivity analysis that could handle the specificities of the model: a high number of input parameters and a limited size of sample due to computational cost and spatialized output. After a preliminary screening step, we calculated Sobol' indices obtained from polynomial chaos expansion, Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC) dependence measures and feature importance measures obtained from random forest surrogate model. Results from the different methods were compared regarding both the information they provide and their computational cost. Sensitivity indices were first computed for each landscape element (site sensitivity indices). Second, we proposed to aggregate them at the hillslope and the catchment scale in order to get a summary of the model sensitivity and a valuable insight into the model hydrodynamic behaviour. Conclusions about the advantages and disadvantages of each method may help modellers to conduct global sensitivity analysis on other such modular and distributed hydrological models as there has been a growing interest in these approaches in recent years.</p

An empirical approach towards the efficient and optimal production of influenza-neutralizing ovine polyclonal antibodies demonstrates that the novel adjuvant CoVaccine HT(TM) is functionally superior to Freund's adjuvant

Passive immunotherapies utilising polyclonal antibodies could have a valuable role in preventing and treating infectious diseases such as influenza, particularly in pandemic situations but also in immunocompromised populations such as the elderly, the chronically immunosuppressed, pregnant women, infants and those with chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to optimise current methods used to generate ovine polyclonal antibodies. Polyclonal antibodies to baculovirus-expressed recombinant influenza haemagglutinin from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 H1N1 (PR8) were elicited in sheep using various immunisation regimens designed to investigate the priming immunisation route, adjuvant formulation, sheep age, and antigen dose, and to empirically ascertain which combination maximised antibody output. The novel adjuvant CoVaccine HT™ was compared to Freund’s adjuvant which is currently the adjuvant of choice for commercial production of ovine polyclonal Fab therapies. CoVaccine HT™ induced significantly higher titres of functional ovine anti-haemagglutinin IgG than Freund’s adjuvant but with fewer side effects, including reduced site reactions. Polyclonal hyperimmune sheep sera effectively neutralised influenza virus in vitro and, when given before or after influenza virus challenge, prevented the death of infected mice. Neither the age of the sheep nor the route of antigen administration appeared to influence antibody titre. Moreover, reducing the administrated dose of haemagglutinin antigen minimally affected antibody titre. Together, these results suggest a cost effective way of producing high and sustained yields of functional ovine polyclonal antibodies specifically for the prevention and treatment of globally significant diseases.Natalie E. Stevens, Cara K. Fraser, Mohammed Alsharifi, Michael P. Brown, Kerrilyn R. Diener, John D. Haybal

Synthesis of Ocean Observations Using Data Assimilation for Operational, Real-Time and Reanalysis Systems: A More Complete Picture of the State of the Ocean

Ocean data assimilation is increasingly recognized as crucial for the accuracy of real-time ocean prediction systems and historical re-analyses. The current status of ocean data assimilation in support of the operational demands of analysis, forecasting and reanalysis is reviewed, focusing on methods currently adopted in operational and real-time prediction systems. Significant challenges associated with the most commonly employed approaches are identified and discussed. Overarching issues faced by ocean data assimilation are also addressed, and important future directions in response to scientific advances, evolving and forthcoming ocean observing systems and the needs of stakeholders and downstream applications are discussed

gp100/pmel17 and tyrosinase encode multiple epitopes recognized by Th1-type CD4+T cells

CD4+ T cells modulate the magnitude and durability of CTL responses in vivo, and may serve as effector cells in the tumour microenvironment. In order to identify the tumour epitopes recognized by tumour-reactive human CD4+ T cells, we combined the use of an HLA-DR4/peptide binding algorithm with an IFN-γ ELISPOT assay. Two known and three novel CD4+ T cell epitopes derived from the gp 100/pmel17 and tyrosinase melanocyte-associated antigens were confirmed or identified. Of major interest, we determined that freshly-isolated PBMC frequencies of Th1-type CD4+ T recognizing these peptides are frequently elevated in HLA-DR4+ melanoma patients (but not normal donors) that are currently disease-free as a result of therapeutic intervention. Epitope-specific CD4+ T cells from normal DR4+ donors could be induced, however, after in vitro stimulation with autologous dendritic cell pulsed with antigens (peptides or antigen-positive melanoma lysates) or infected with recombinant vaccinia virus encoding the relevant antigen. Peptide-reactive CD4+ T cells also recognized HLA-DR4+ melanoma cell lines that constitutively express the relevant antigen. Based on these data, these epitopes may serve as potent vaccine components to promote clinically-relevant Th1-type CD4+ T cell effector function in situ. http://www.bjcancer.com © 2001 Cancer Research Campaig

NEMOTAM: tangent and adjoint models for the ocean modelling platform NEMO

Tangent linear and adjoint models (TAMs) are efficient tools to analyse and to control dynamical systems such as NEMO. They can be involved in a large range of applications such as sensitivity analysis, parameter estimation or the computation of characteristic vectors. A TAM is also required by the 4D-Var algorithm, which is one of the major methods in data assimilation. This paper describes the development and the validation of the tangent linear and adjoint model for the NEMO ocean modelling platform (NEMOTAM). The diagnostic tools that are available alongside NEMOTAM are detailed and discussed, and several applications are also presented