Towards an Integrated Spatial Dynamic Model for Amsterdam

Contribution to the Metropolitan Study: 18 -- The project "Nested Dynamics of Metropolitan Processes and Policies" started as a collaborative study in 1983. The Series of contributions is a means of conveying information between the collaborators in the network of the project. This report gives an overview of the structure of a dynamic model built for the Amsterdam Metropolitan Region. The study concentrates on problems of analyzing and predicting the developments in the housing market to which demographic changes are explicitly related in a suggested model

Пространственный компонент в структуре глаголов физического действия

Цель данной статьи – определить роль пространственного компонента в семантической структуре глаголов физического действия

Can changes in education alter future population ageing in Asia and Europe?

While population ageing is rising, the educational composition of elderly is rather heterogeneous. We assess educational differences in future population ageing in Asia and Europe and how future population ageing in Asia and Europe would change if the educational composition of its populations would change. We do so using a comparative population ageing measure that recalculates old-age thresholds after accounting for differences in life expectancy, and the likelihood of adults surviving to higher ages. We construct projected life-tables (2015-2020, …, 2045-2050) by educational level and sex for different regions of Asia and Europe. Based on these life-tables we calculated the future comparative prospective old-age thresholds by educational level and sex. We find that in both Asia and Europe and among both men and women, the projected old-age thresholds are higher for higher educated people than for less educated people. While Europe has a larger projected share of elderly in the population than Asia, Europe’s older population is better educated. In alternate future scenarios in which populations hypothetically have higher levels of education, the projected shares of elderly in the population decrease across all regions of Asia and Europe, but more so in Asia. Our results highlight the effectiveness of investing in education as a policy response to the challenges associated with population ageing in Asia and Europe. Such investments are more effective in the Asian regions, where the educational infrastructure is less developed

Theory-based Habit Modeling for Enhancing Behavior Prediction

Psychological theories of habit posit that when a strong habit is formed through behavioral repetition, it can trigger behavior automatically in the same environment. Given the reciprocal relationship between habit and behavior, changing lifestyle behaviors (e.g., toothbrushing) is largely a task of breaking old habits and creating new and healthy ones. Thus, representing users' habit strengths can be very useful for behavior change support systems (BCSS), for example, to predict behavior or to decide when an intervention reaches its intended effect. However, habit strength is not directly observable and existing self-report measures are taxing for users. In this paper, built on recent computational models of habit formation, we propose a method to enable intelligent systems to compute habit strength based on observable behavior. The hypothesized advantage of using computed habit strength for behavior prediction was tested using data from two intervention studies, where we trained participants to brush their teeth twice a day for three weeks and monitored their behaviors using accelerometers. Through hierarchical cross-validation, we found that for the task of predicting future brushing behavior, computed habit strength clearly outperformed self-reported habit strength (in both studies) and was also superior to models based on past behavior frequency (in the larger second study). Our findings provide initial support for our theory-based approach of modeling user habits and encourages the use of habit computation to deliver personalized and adaptive interventions

Perfil del sistema alimentario de Honduras. Entendiendo mejor los sistemas alimentarios a nivel de país

Los perfiles de país son más que una simple compilación de indicadores nacionales. Se construyen y diseñan en torno a un marco y una metodología comunes para identificar los puntos críticos de insostenibilidad en los sistemas alimentarios de los países y priorizar las intervenciones a múltiples escalas, para abordarlos mediante acciones e inversiones específicas. Una característica importante de estos perfiles nacionales es que se elaboran juntamente con las principales partes interesadas públicas y privadas de los sistemas alimentarios, quienes participan tanto en la identificación de los datos como en la validación de los resultados y los mensajes clave que surgen. El uso de un marco común ofrece una nueva oportunidad para realizar un análisis comparativo global de las transiciones y transformaciones del sistema alimentario, generando así ideas y lecciones para los responsables de la toma de decisiones no sólo a nivel nacional sino también internacional. Esperamos que estos perfiles contribuyan a los procesos internacionales pertinentes, a raíz de la Cumbre de las Naciones Unidas sobre Sistemas Alimentarios de 2021. El presente perfil del sistema alimentario hondureño está conformado por tres grandes bloques de información: (a) los motores del sistema; (b) los componentes del sistema, y (c) los resultados del sistema

Nevirapine, stavudine and lamivudine pharmacokinetics in African children on paediatric fixed-dose combination tablets.

OBJECTIVE: Triomune Baby and Junior have been developed in response to the urgent need for appropriate paediatric fixed-dose combination antiretroviral tablets, with higher nevirapine to stavudine and lamivudine ratios than adult tablets, in accordance with paediatric recommendations. We determined whether this ratio results in optimal exposure in the target population. METHODS: Seventy-one Zambian children were treated with Triomune Baby or Junior dosed according to weight bands. After 4 weeks or more, a 12-h pharmacokinetic curve was recorded. Antiretroviral plasma concentrations were assayed by high-performance liquid chromatography. RESULTS: Six children were excluded because of poor adherence. Of the remaining 65, 24 (37%) were female, 24 (37%) weighed less than 15 kg and most were malnourished. Mean (range) nevirapine C12h, Cmax and AUC12h of 6.0 (1.4, 16.9) mg/l, 10.0 (3.8, 22.5) mg/l and 94.4 (32.1, 232) mg/l per hour were higher than those reported in adults. Nevirapine C12h was subtherapeutic (< 3.0 mg/l) in four children (6%). Mean stavudine and lamivudine C12h, Cmax, AUC12h (< 0.015 mg/l, 0.45 mg/l, 1.05 mg/l per hour and 0.09 mg/l, 1.33 mg/l, 5.42 mg/l per hour) were comparable to adults. There was no evidence of a difference in nevirapine AUC12h across weight bands (P = 0.2), whereas the difference in stavudine (P = 0.0003) and lamivudine AUC12h (P = 0.01) was driven by the single weight band with unequal dosing. CONCLUSION: Nevirapine concentrations were higher but more variable than in adults; the pharmacokinetic parameters of stavudine and lamivudine were comparable to adults. As nevirapine underdosing is of greater concern than overdosing, the Triomune Baby and Junior ratio appears to be appropriate for children weighing 6 kg and over. Further research is required for children under 6 kg

The Effect of Aggressive Versus Conventional Lipid-lowering Therapy on Markers of Inflammatory and Oxidative Stress

Purpose Recent trial results are in favor of aggressive lipid lowering using high dose statins in patients needing secondary prevention. It is unclear whether these effects are solely due to more extensive lipid lowering or the result of the potentially anti-inflammatory properties of statins. We aimed to determine whether aggressive compared with conventional statin therapy is more effective in reducing systemic markers of inflammation and oxidative stress. Materials and methods This was a multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Patients with previous cardiovascular disease, who did not achieve low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels <2.6 mmol/l on conventional statin therapy (simvastatin 40 mg) were randomized to continue with simvastatin 40 mg or to receive atorvastatin 40 mg for 8 weeks and thereafter atorvastatin 80 mg for the final 8 weeks (aggressive treatment). Lipids, C-reactive protein, soluble cellular adhesion molecules, neopterin, von Willebrand Factor, and antibodies against oxidized LDL were measured at baseline and after 16 weeks. Results Lipid levels decreased significantly in the aggressive treatment group (LDL-C reduction 20.8%; P <0.001), whereas a slight increase was observed in the conventional group (LDL-C increase 3.7%; P = 0.037). A significant reduction in antibodies against oxidized LDL was seen in the aggressive (13.4%; P <0.001) and the conventional (26.8%; P <0.001) group, but there was no difference between groups (P = 0.25). Furthermore, no significant differences in change in other biomarkers was observed between both groups. Conclusions This study does not support the hypothesis that a more profound reduction in inflammatory and oxidative stress contributes to the benefits of aggressive statin therapy