Electrical load forecasting

Some long-term design activities are based on electrical load forecasting. Forecasting errors result in the wrong decisions being made in the future. At present there are three widely used methods of forecasting: the method based on enlarged specific indexes (ESI), the econometric method and the self-sufficient method. All of these methods have their own disadvantages and errors in estimation. The main reasons for errors in areas such as objective reasoning, changes in production technology, the lack of reliable long-term forecasting for economy development and consumer infraction of load schedule are determined in this paper and an objective estimation for the forecasted error of different spheres of application is made. This work aims to determine a sphere of application for each of these methods and to develop a principal of combined application, so that they may decrease forecasting error. The purpose of this work consists of the creation of an electrical load forecasting method to obtain more reliable data for the different time periods and territory. A new method is presented, based on calculations carried out. Recommendations for all existing methods are given with reference to the calculations and the way that the combined application of several methods was introduced to increase the reliability of a forecast. © 2014 WIT Press.International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering;International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning;WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environmen

Cross-relaxation and phonon bottleneck effects on magnetization dynamics in LiYF4:Ho3+

Frequency and dc magnetic field dependences of dynamic susceptibility in diluted paramagnets LiYF$_4$:Ho$^{3+}$ have been measured at liquid helium temperatures in the ac and dc magnetic fields parallel to the symmetry axis of a tetragonal crystal lattice. Experimental data are analyzed in the framework of microscopic theory of relaxation rates in the manifold of 24 electron-nuclear sublevels of the lowest non-Kramers doublet and the first excited singlet in the Ho$^{3+}$ ground multiplet $^5I_8$ split by the crystal field of S$_4$ symmetry. The one-phonon transition probabilities were computed using electron-phonon coupling constants calculated in the framework of exchange charge model and were checked by optical piezospectroscopic measurements. The specific features observed in field dependences of the in- and out-of-phase susceptibilities (humps and dips, respectively) at the crossings (anti-crossings) of the electron-nuclear sublevels are well reproduced by simulations when the phonon bottleneck effect and the cross-spin relaxation are taken into account

Naturally derived nano- and micro-drug delivery vehicles: halloysite, vaterite and nanocellulose

Recent advances in drug delivery and controlled release had a great impact on bioscience, medicine and tissue engineering. Consequently, a variety of advanced drug delivery vehicles either have already reached the market or are approaching the phase of commercial production. Progressive growth of the drug delivery market has led to the necessity to earnestly concern about economically viable, up-scalable and sustainable technologies for a large-scale production of drug delivery carriers. We have identified three attractive natural sources of drug carriers: aluminosilicate clays, minerals of calcium carbonate, and cellulose. Three classes of drug delivery carriers derived from these natural materials are halloysite nanotubes, vaterite crystals and nanocellulose. These carriers can be produced using “green” technologies from some of the most abundant sources on the Earth and have extremely high potential to meet all criteria applied for the manufacture of modern delivery carriers. We provide an up-to-date snapshot of these drug delivery vehicles towards their use for bioapplications, in particular for drug delivery and tissue engineering. The following research topics are addressed: (i) the availability, sources and methodologies used for production of these drug delivery vehicles, (ii) the drug loading and release mechanisms of these delivery vehicles, (iii) in vitro, in vivo, and clinical studies on these vehicles, and (iv) employment of these vehicles for tissue engineering. Finally, the prospects for vehicles’ further development and industrialisation are critically assessed, highlighting most attractive future research directions such as the design of third generation active biomaterials

Mjerenje linearne polarizacije realnih fotona

A survey of known methods of analyzing linear polarization of high-energy photons is presented. The methods of pair photoproduction in single crystals and in amorphous targets are briefly discussed. The method of measurement of photon linear polarization using azimuthal asymmetry of the recoil electrons from pair photoproduction on electron (triplet photoproduction process) is considered in details. The optimum region of kinematic parameters of emitted particles in which analyzing power increases is discussed. Possibility of using CLAS for the measurement of linear photon polarization by analyzing the recoil-electron distribution in triplet photoproduction process (when shielding magnet is turned off) is considered.Daje se pregled poznatih metoda za određivanje linearne polarizacije visokoenergijskih fotona. Raspravlja se kratko tvorba parova u monokristalima i amorfnim metama. Podrobno se razmatra metoda mjerenja polarizacije određivanjem azimutalne asimetrije elektrona od fototvorbe na elektronima (trojna fototvorba). Raspravlja se najpovoljnije područje kinematičkih parametara izlaznih čestica. Izlaže se mogćcnost primjene CLASa za određivanje linearne polarizacije fotona mjerenjem raspodjele odbijenih elektrona iz trojnog fototvorbenog procesa (za vrijeme mjerenja CLASov magnet bi se isključio)

Discovery of an unusual bright eclipsing binary with the longest known period: TYC 2505-672-1 / MASTER OT J095310.04+335352.8

We report on the MASTER Global Robotic Net discovery of an eclipsing binary, MASTER OT J095310.04+335352.8, previously known as unremarkable star TYC 2505-672-1, which displays extreme orbital parameters. The orbital period P=69.1 yr is more than 2.5 times longer than that of epsilon-Aurigae, which is the previous record holder. The light curve is characterized by an extremely deep total eclipse with a depth of more than 4.5 mag, which is symmetrically shaped and has a total duration of 3.5 yrs. The eclipse is essentially gray. The spectra acquired with the Russian 6 m BTA telescope both at minimum and maximum light mainly correspond to an M0-1III--type red giant, but the spectra taken at the bottom of eclipse show small traces of a sufficiently hot source. The observed properties of this system can be better explained as the red giant eclipsed by a large cloud (the disk) of small particles surrounding the invisible secondary companion.Comment: 8 figures, 9 pages, Astronomy and astrophysics in prin

Mjerenje linearne polarizacije realnih fotona

A survey of known methods of analyzing linear polarization of high-energy photons is presented. The methods of pair photoproduction in single crystals and in amorphous targets are briefly discussed. The method of measurement of photon linear polarization using azimuthal asymmetry of the recoil electrons from pair photoproduction on electron (triplet photoproduction process) is considered in details. The optimum region of kinematic parameters of emitted particles in which analyzing power increases is discussed. Possibility of using CLAS for the measurement of linear photon polarization by analyzing the recoil-electron distribution in triplet photoproduction process (when shielding magnet is turned off) is considered.Daje se pregled poznatih metoda za određivanje linearne polarizacije visokoenergijskih fotona. Raspravlja se kratko tvorba parova u monokristalima i amorfnim metama. Podrobno se razmatra metoda mjerenja polarizacije određivanjem azimutalne asimetrije elektrona od fototvorbe na elektronima (trojna fototvorba). Raspravlja se najpovoljnije područje kinematičkih parametara izlaznih čestica. Izlaže se mogćcnost primjene CLASa za određivanje linearne polarizacije fotona mjerenjem raspodjele odbijenih elektrona iz trojnog fototvorbenog procesa (za vrijeme mjerenja CLASov magnet bi se isključio)

Erforschung von biokompatiblen und korrosionsbestandigen Beschichtungen, die auf Titanlegierung Vt6 durch Elektroerosivemetallbearbeitung aufgetragen werden

В статье рассмотрены фазовый и химико-элементный составы покрытия для ортопедии и дентальной медицины, нанесенного на титановый сплав ВТ6методом электроискровой обработки металлов с целью предотвращения попадания с поверхности сплава в организм человека химических элементов, оказывающих токсическое воздействие

Polarized triplet production by circularly polarized photons

A process of the pair production by a circularly polarized photon in the field of unpolarized atomic electron has been considered in the Weizaecker-Williams approximation. The degree of longitudinal polarization of positron and electron has been calculated. An exclusive cross-section as well as a spectral distribution are obtained. We estimate the accuracy of our calculations at the level of a few percent. We show the identity of the positron polarization for considered process and for process of pair production in the screened Coulomb field of nucleus.Comment: 9 pages, 3 picture

Improving the visual information security by consistent application of methods for its processing and protection

To meet the reliability requirements the visual information transmitted over the radio lines over noisy background must be protected using cryptographic protection methods. That is why an agreed application of processing and protection of visual information has been proposed, which consists in maintaining natural redundancy of visual information in the process of compression and in the subsequent use for protection against the mistakes arising in the radio line. The conceptually new approach to consideration of cryptographic information security subsystem not as a part of the information processing closed system, which is isolated and indifferent with respect to above and below levels, but rather as an element of a complex processing and information security system is suggested. A combination of the image blocks permutation and a cipher gamma superimposing is considered as a mechanism of cryptographic protection of visual information. Such combination of classical cryptographic algorithms does not multiply the errors, while the distortions of the separate bits arising by the influence of interference in the radio line are eliminated due to natural redundancy of visual information and noise-immune coding. A software tool has been developed to carry out a correlation analysis of the combined cryptoprotection method stability and the qualitative assessment of its use. A block diagram of the algorithm for synthesizing the parameter of noise-immune encoding and a software tool performing a complete enumeration of the algorithm parameters are developed. A distinctive feature of the software is the ability to obtain statistical data for solving optimization problems to increase the efficiency of the passage of visual information and therefore to increase its reliability. As an example, the parameter values of the optimal noise-immune code for an image frame of 200 KB are provided