Techniques for assessing the investment attractiveness of a commercial organization based on classical methods of strategic economic analysis

Purpose: The development of methodological support for assessing the investment attractiveness of a commercial organization, considering modern information requests of stakeholders. Design/Methodology/Approach: As part of the research, the authors have developed an algorithm for investment attractiveness assessment of a commercial organization by using the scenario method of economic analysis. Findings: It is proved that the main disadvantages of the existing methods of assessing investment attractiveness are: the lack of strategic orientation of the assessment; ignoring the influence of most external and internal factors of activity; the inability to assess the risk of investing in the analyzed object; the need to compare with the level of investment attractiveness of similar organizations for an objective interpretation of the results. Practical implications: To eliminate the significant shortcomings of modern methodological support in this area, the authors recommend the use of scenario method of strategic economic analysis in the process of assessing the investment attractiveness of the organization. Originality/Value: The scenario method of strategic economic analysis proposed by the authors complements the existing approaches with the ability to take into account potential risks when making a far-sighted decision to invest in an organization by combining the results of retrospective analysis and forecasting changes in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of financial and economic activity.peer-reviewe

Statistical analysis of medical time series

Statistical analysis of data sets is a necessary component of any medical research. Modern methods of mathematical statistics and statistical application suites provide extensive capabilities for analysis of random values. However, when a data set is represented by a series of data ordered by time, or when structure and order of data are essential components of research, special approaches to statistical analysis become necessary.Presented in this article are special statistical methods developed by the authors for analysis of a time series: Time Series Mann-Whitney M-test is an analogue of the known nonparametric Mann-Whitney Utest for two Time Series with an equal number of elements; Nominal Time Series Measure is a statistical estimator of dynamics of a nominal series consisting of «0» (no) and «1» (yes); Time Series Entropy EnRE is a specially developed robust formula for a Time Series, intended for calculation of nonlinear stochastic measure of order or disorder, popular in various researches. Presented methods are accompanied by a detailed demonstration of capacity for statistical analysis of medical Time Series: Analysis of growth dynamics of boys and girls aged 6–7–8 years (data by World Health Organization); analysis of the number of seizures and choice of anti-epileptic drugs (data by The National Society for Epilepsy); Time series entropy EnRE for Detecting Congestive Heart Failure by standard 5-minutesHeart Rate Variability samples (data by Massachusetts Institute of Technology – Boston’s Beth Israel Hospital RR database). It has been noted that, in every case, using the named special methods for statistical analysis of medical Time Series allows one to avoid errors in interpreting results received through statistical methods and substantially increases the accuracy of statistical analysis of medical Time Series

Modulation of Circumstellar Extinction in a Young Binary System with a Low-Mass Companion in a Noncoplanar Orbit

The cyclic activity model of a young star with the low-mass secondary component (q = M2/M1 <= 0.1) accreting a matter from circumbinary disk is considered. It is assumed that the orbit is circular and the disk and orbital planes are non-coplanar. Sets of hydrodynamics models of such a system have been calculated by the SPH method and then the variations of the circumstellar extinction and phase light curves were determined. The calculations showed that depending on the model parameters and orientation of the system in regards to an observer the different in shape and amplitude light curves can be observed. An important property of the considered models is also the dependence of the mass accretion rate onto the components on the phase of the orbital period. The results of the calculation can be used for analysis of the cyclic activity of UX Ori stars and young stars with the long-lasting eclipses.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

Optoelectronic Methods of IR-Photometry in Solving Thermal and Physical Problems

Results of the application of optoelectronic IR-photometry methods for solving the actual thermophysical problems using high-speed photodiode temperature (pyrometric) sensors are presented. The latest achievements of the Ioffe Institute in the field of middle IR spectral range (3-6 μm) photodiode production technology are used in the sensor development. The above-mentioned middle-IR photodiode sensors are based on heterostructures from A3B5 solid solutions and they do not require forced cooling. New data on thermophysical processes taking place under the complex experimental conditions, including dynamically changing properties of the object, have been obtained. The new experimental results are based on high-speed non-contact measurements of the absolute temperature of objects directly in the exposure region of laser radiation and / or powerful electromagnetic fields. In the context of creating new experimental techniques for determining the thermophysical parameters of new promising materials the efficiency of middle- IR photodiode temperature sensors has been shown. In particular, a simple and effective measuring method for determining the heat transfer coefficient of solid objects and the pyroelectric coefficient of ferro- and pyroelectric materials is offered. The measuring method is based on laser thermowave techniques and direct noncontact measurements of the sample surface temperature under the pulsed / periodic laser action. The proposed experimental techniques make it possible to significantly improve the accuracy of measurements of thermophysical parameters of materials, and in particular, to eliminate a considerable spread of data on the parameters of the pyroelectric effect in ferroelectric materials. Keywords: Pyrometric sensors, mid-IR photodiodes, laser thermowave techniques, heat transfer coefficient, pyroelectric coefficien

Brightness Oscillations in Models of Young Binary Systems with Low-Mass Secondary Components

We consider a model for the cyclic brightness variations of a young star with a low-mass companion that accretes matter from the remnants of a protostellar cloud. At small inclinations of the binary orbit to the line of sight, the streams of matter and the density waves excited in the circumbinary disk can screen the primary component of the binary from the observer. To study these phenomena, we have computed grids of hydrodynamic models for binary systems by the SPH method based on which we have constructed the phase light curves as a function of the rotation angle of the apsidal line relative to the observer. The model parameters were varied within the following ranges: the component mass ratio q = 0.01-0.1 and the eccentricity e = 0-0.5. We adopted optical grain characteristics typical of circumstellar dust. Our computations have shown that the brightness oscillations with orbital phase can have a complex structure. The amplitudes and shapes of the light curves depend strongly on the inclination of the binary orbit and its orientation relative to the observer and on the accretion rate. The results of our computations are used to analyze the cyclic activity of UX Ori stars.Comment: 13 pages,8 figures, 1 tabl

Bimodal Brightness Oscillations in Models of Young Binary Systems

We consider a model for the cyclic activity of young binary stars that accrete matter from the remnants of a protostellar cloud. If the orbit of such a binary system is inclined at a small angle to the line of sight, then the streams of matter and the density waves excited in the circumbinary disk can screen the primary component of the binary from the observer. To study these phenomena by the SPH (smoothed particle hydrodynamics) method, we have computed grids of hydrodynamic models for binary systems based on which we have constructed the light curves as a function of the orbital phase.The main emphasis is on investigating the properties of the brightness oscillations. Therefore, the model parameters were varied within the following ranges: the component mass ratio q = M2 : M1 = 0.2 - 0.5 and the eccentricity e = 0 - 0.7. The parameter that defined the binary viscosity was also varied. We adopted optical grain characteristics typical of circumstellar dust. Our computations have shown that bimodal oscillations are excited in binaries with eccentric orbits, provided that the binary components do not differ too much in mass. In this case, the ratios of the periods and amplitudes of the bimodal oscillations and their shape depend strongly on the inclination of the binary plane and its orientation relative to the observer. Our analysis shows that the computed light curves can be used in interpreting the cyclic activity of UX Ori stars.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Pyroelectric and electrocaloric effects in PMN-based relaxors

The work was supported by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research under grant 18-02-00394

Environmental monitoring of natural waters in Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories

The environmental monitoring of natural waters in Krasnodar (Uspensky and Novokubansky districts) and Stavropol (Kochubeyevsky District) Territories was conducted. In the course of study, various elements and compounds harmful to animals and humans, which exceed maximum permissible concentrations, were identified

Mechanisms of the Vertical Secular Heating of a Stellar Disk

We investigate the nonlinear growth stages of bending instability in stellar disks with exponential radial density profiles.We found that the unstable modes are global (the wavelengths are larger than the disk scale lengths) and that the instability saturation level is much higher than that following from a linear criterion. The instability saturation time scales are of the order of one billion years or more. For this reason, the bending instability can play an important role in the secular heating of a stellar disk in the $z$ direction. In an extensive series of numerical $N$-body simulations with a high spatial resolution, we were able to scan in detail the space of key parameters (the initial disk thickness $z_0$, the Toomre parameter $Q$, and the ratio of dark halo mass to disk mass $M_{\rm h} / M_{\rm d}$). We revealed three distinct mechanisms of disk heating in the $z$ direction: bending instability of the entire disk, bending instability of the bar, and heating on vertical inhomogeneities in the distribution of stellar matter.Comment: 22 pages including 8 figures. To be published in Astronomy Letters (v.29, 2003

COVID-19. Aetiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and treatment

COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) is a new epidemic infectious disease characterized by a relatively high contagiousness and a high probability of life-threatening complications such as acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute respiratory and multiple organ failure. The causative agent of the disease is the enveloped zoonotic RNA virus known as SARS-CoV-2. Together with the SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV viruses, which cause severe acute respiratory syndrome and the Middle East respiratory syndrome, respectively, it belongs to the Coronaviridae family, the genus Betacoronavirus. The COVID-19 epidemic has spread rapidly around the world and currently hit 213 countries with more than 1.6 million confirmed cases, of which more than 90.000 have died so far. In Russian Federation, SARS-CoV-2 infection is included in the list of diseases that pose a danger to others, along with especially dangerous infections. The virus is transmitted by airborne droplets, airborne dust and contact routes, therefore, to protect medical staff it is necessary to use individual protective suits and accessories, with protection of the respiratory tract and eyes, disinfection of hands and surfaces as when working with the BSL-2 microorganisms. The diagnosis of COVID-19 is confirmed using real-time RT-PCR diagnostics detecting the presence of viral RNA. Clinical manifestations of COVID-19 vary from mild and moderate (pneumonia without signs of hypoxemia and impaired O2 saturation, 80% of all cases), to severe (15% of cases, O2 saturation 8993%) and extremely severe (5% of cases, ARDS, multiple organ failure, mechanical ventilation and resuscitation are necessary). The typical clinical presentation of COVID19 patients includes the following: severe fever, dry cough, respiratory failure, combined with lymphopenia and thrombocytopenia, normal procalcitonin, elevated levels of ferritin and CRP in the blood with signs of bilateral, polysegmental pneumonia and the ground glass opacity on CT. Even in the absence of an unfavorable epidemiological anamnesis, these clinical signs can be recommended to admit the patient to an infectious isolation ward where he or she would wait for the results of PCR diagnostics and the diagnosis of COVID-19 be confirmed/ ruled out. Currently, no SARS-CoV-2-specific therapy is available for COVID-19 patients; the only method that has proven effective in several investigational trials is transfusion of convalescent plasma with high titers of neutralizing antibodies. A number of innovative treatments appear promising and include the use of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, ACE2-derived agents, as well as MSC- and NK-cell based cell therapies