Eurasian Future of Russia: Alternating Integration and Disintegration Cycles

Russia needs to fit into the international geopolitical and geo-economic landscape. The formation of this landscape is largely determined by alternating integration and disintegration cycles in the development of the world economy. The second global disintegration cycle that started in 2008 is expected to last 15—20 years. It will be followed by a new integration cycle, largely dependent on China (Pax Sinensis instead of Pax Americana). This change necessitates a number of steps: a significant strengthening of the Eastern vector in the development of Russia, the formation of the Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle (Evgeny Primakov's idea) as well as providing access of energy-intensive and water-intensive goods from East Siberia by railway to the Chinese and Indian markets. Russia has expressed its interest in the construction of a railway from China to India. It will allow Russia to reduce transportation costs and use a potentially heavy transit traffic for the modernization of the Transsibirian railway. These steps could radically change the role of the Baltic exclave of Russia: from being a ‘window to Europe’ the region is to turn into the westernmost point of a infrastructure axis extending from east to west. The creation of such an axis, combined with a sharp fall in transportation costs will facilitate the access of energy-intensive and water-intensive goods from the Urals and Siberia to the Asian and European markets. The Kaliningrad region is increasingly taking on business facilitating functions, which used to be performed by the Soviet Baltic republics in the past. The region can play a more important role in the formation of Eurasia stretching from Shanghai to St. Petersburg (according to Dmitry Trenin), instead of the Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok

Strategies Employed by Community-Based Service Providers to Address HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Challenges: A Qualitative Study

Background: HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and other causes of neurocognitive challenges experienced by people living with HIV (PLWH) persist as public health concerns in developed countries. Consequently, PLWH who experience neurocognitive challenges increasingly require social support and mental health services from community-based providers in the HIV sector. Methods: Thirty-three providers from 22 AIDS service organizations across Ontario, Canada, were interviewed to determine the strategies they used to support PLWH experiencing neurocognitive difficulties. Thematic analysis was conducted to determine key themes from the interview data. Results: Three types of strategies were identified: (a) intrapersonal, (b) interpersonal, and (c) organizational. Intrapersonal strategies involved learning and staying informed about causes of neurocognitive challenges. Interpersonal strategies included providing practical assistance, information, counseling, and/or referrals to PLWH. Organizational strategies included creating dedicated support groups for PLWH experiencing neurocognitive challenges, partnering with other organizations with services not available within their own organization, and advocating for greater access to services with expertise and experience working with PLWH. Conclusion: Through concerted efforts in the future, it is likely that empirically investigating, developing, and customizing these strategies specifically to address HIV-associated neurocognitive challenges will yield improved social support and mental health outcomes for PLWH

Jean Gottmann as a Visionary and a Critic

This is an introductory paper to the special issue on “The spatial transformation of the urban environment in the conditions of post-industrial development of society” conference dedicated to the 100th anniversary of Jean Gottmann. The conference was held at the Institute of Environmental Management, territory development and urban planning of the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Kaliningrad, Russia. The special issue presents a number of scientific papers, which represent different view angles on regional development in the context of globalization. Keywords: Jean Gottmann, Economic Geography, Regional Economy, Kaliningrad Region JEL Classifications: N9, O1, R

Multiobjective genetic programming can improve the explanatory capabilities of mechanism-based models of social systems

The generative approach to social science, in which agent-based simulations (or other complex systems models) are executed to reproduce a known social phenomenon, is an important tool for realist explanation. However, a generative model, when suitably calibrated and validated using empirical data, represents just one viable candidate set of entities and mechanisms. The model only partially addresses the needs of an abductive reasoning process - specifically it does not provide insight into other viable sets of entities or mechanisms, nor suggest which of these are fundamentally constitutive for the phenomenon to exist. In this paper, we propose a new model discovery framework that more fully captures the needs of realist explanation. The framework exploits the implicit ontology of an existing human-built generative model to propose and test a plurality of new candidate model structures. Genetic programming is used to automate this search process. A multi-objective approach is used, which enables multiple perspectives on the value of any particular generative model - such as goodness-of-fit, parsimony, and interpretability - to be represented simultaneously. We demonstrate this new framework using a complex systems modeling case study of change and stasis in societal alcohol use patterns in the US over the period 1980-2010. The framework is successful in identifying three competing explanations of these alcohol use patterns, using novel integrations of social role theory not previously considered by the human modeler. Practitioners in complex systems modeling should use model discovery to improve the explanatory utility of the generative approach to realist social science

Scaling Up Information Sharing on HIV-Associated Neurocognitive Disorder: Raising Awareness and Knowledge Among Key Stakeholders

Although the majority of specialists and researchers in the field of HIV/AIDS are aware and knowledgeable about HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND) as a condition that affects as much as 50% of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH), research has documented that many health care and service providers who work directly with PLWH are either unaware of HAND or believe they do not know enough information about HAND to effectively support their clients experiencing neurocognitive challenges. Based on the findings of a qualitative study that interviewed 33 health care and service providers in HIV/AIDS services to identify and examine their awareness and knowledge on HAND, this article argues for utilizing a combination of Public Health Informatics principles; communication techniques, propagation strategies, and recognized approaches from Implementation and Dissemination Science; and social media and online discussion platforms, in addition to traditional Knowledge Mobilization strategies, to scale up information sharing on HAND among all relevant stakeholders. Increasing information sharing among stakeholders would be an important step to raising awareness and knowledge on HAND, and consequently, improving care, services, and support for PLWH and neurocognitive issues

Tobacco use and nicotine dependence among people living with HIV who drink heavily in South Africa: a cross-sectional baseline study

Abstract

Sexual Risk Behaviour among HIV-Positive Individuals in Clinical Care in Urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Objectives: To assess the prevalence and predictors of unprotected sex among HIV+ individuals in clinical care in urban KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Design: Cross-sectional survey of 152 HIV+ individuals attending a hospital-based HIV-clinic. Methods: Structured interviews were conducted by bilingual interviewers. Sexual risk behaviour in the preceding 3 months was assessed via event counts. Results: In one of the first studies of its kind in South Africa we found that nearly half of the sample reported vaginal or anal sex during the preceding 3 months, and 30% of these patients reported unprotected vaginal or anal sex. Among sexually active patients, a total of 171 unprotected sex events were reported, 40% of which were with partners perceived to be HIV negative or HIV-status unknown. Nine such partners were potentially exposed to HIV. Alcohol use during sex, being forced to have sex, sex with a perceived HIV+ partner, and sex with a casual partner predicted more unprotected sex, whereas HIV-status disclosure was related to less unprotected sex. Conclusions: HIV+ individuals in clinical care in South Africa may engage in unprotected sex that place others at risk of HIV infection and themselves at risk for infection with STIs. With a national ARV rollout currently underway in South Africa, increasing numbers of HIV+ individuals are entering care. This affords a crucial opportunity to link HIV prevention with HIV care, an approach that aims to reduce transmission risk behaviour among HIV+ individuals and is consistent with international agencies’ current prevention priorities

Grand Challenges: Improving HIV Treatment Outcomes by Integrating Interventions for Co-Morbid Mental Illness.

In the fourth article of a five-part series providing a global perspective on integrating mental health, Sylvia Kaaya and colleagues discuss the importance of integrating mental health interventions into HIV prevention and treatment platforms. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Characteristics and drinking behaviour of patients on antiretroviral therapy who drink and attend HIV clinics in Tshwane, South Africa: Implications for intervention

Background. Patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who drink alcohol are at risk of poor medication adherence and negative health outcomes.Objectives. To explore the drinking behaviour of patients on ART and assess the associations between drinking, adherence to ART and viral load, and in particular factors associated with binge drinking (≥6 drinks per occasion) at least monthly.Methods. We recruited 623 HIV patients from six hospitals in the Tshwane metropole who scored positive on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) but were ‘non-dependent’ drinkers into a randomised controlled trial. This article reports on baseline data.Results. Of the patients, 51% reported drinking in the past week, 60% of men and 33% of women consumed ≥6 standard drinks on a typical drinking day, and 19% of men and 5% of women were identified as drinking at harmful levels. Over a quarter reported having a friend or relative, or a doctor or other healthcare worker, express concern about their drinking or suggest that they cut down. AUDIT total scores were significantly negatively correlated with self-reported adherence to ART and positively correlated with viral load. Number of years on ART was not significantly associated with binge drinking. Persons who were employed part time (odds ratio (OR) 1.474) or were self-employed (OR 2.135) were more likely to binge-drink than unemployed persons. Beer drinkers (OR 1.716) were more at risk for binge drinking than non-beer drinkers, and persons who drank monthly or less (OR 0.053) or 2 - 4 times a month (OR 0.168) were less at risk for bingeing than those who drank ≥4 times per week.Conclusions. The high volume of alcohol consumed per occasion by patients on ART, especially beer and spirits drinkers, is a concern. Interventions that address structural drivers of heavy drinking and target HIV patients at risk of heavy drinking are needed.