A 24-h forecast of ozone peaks and exceedance levels using neural classifiers and weather predictions

A neural network combined to a neural classifier is used in a real time forecasting of hourly maximum ozone in the centre of France, in an urban atmosphere. This neural model is based on the MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) structure. The inputs of the statistical network are model output statistics of the weather predictions from the French National Weather Service. With this neural classifier, the Success Index of forecasting is 78% whereas it is from 65% to 72% with the classical MLPs. During the validation phase, in the Summer of 2003, six ozone peaks above the threshold were detected. They actually were seven

Variation in local and systemic pro-inflammatory immune markers of wild wood mice after anthelminthic treatment

The immune system represents a host’s main defence against infection to parasites and pathogens. In the wild, a host’s response to immune challenge can vary due to physiological condition, demography (age, sex), and coinfection by other parasites or pathogens. These sources of variation, which are intrinsic to natural populations, can significantly impact the strength and type of immune responses elicited after parasite exposure and infection. Importantly, but often neglected, a host’s immune response can also vary within the individual, across tissues and between local and systemic scales. Consequently, how a host responds at each scale may impact its susceptibility to concurrent and subsequent infections. Here we analysed how characteristics of hosts and their parasite infections drive variation in the pro-inflammatory immune response in wild wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) at both the local and systemic scale by experimentally manipulating within-host parasite communities through anthelminthic drug treatment. We measured concentrations of the pro-inflammatory cytokine TNF-α produced in vitro in response to a panel of TLR agonists at the local (mesenteric lymph nodes, MLN) and systemic (spleen) scales of individuals naturally infected with two gastrointestinal parasites, the nematode Heligmosomoides polygyrus and the protozoan Eimeria hungaryensis. Anthelminthic-treated mice had a 20-fold lower worm burden compared to control mice, as well as a 7-fold higher intensity of the non-drug targeted parasite E. hungaryensis. Anthelminthic treatment differentially impacted levels of TNF-α expression in males and females at the systemic and local scales, with treated males producing higher, and treated females lower, levels of TNF-α, compared to control mice. Also, TNF-α was affected by host age, at the local scale, with MLN cells of young, treated mice producing higher levels of TNF-α than those of old, treated hosts. Using complementary, but distinct, measures of inflammation measured across within-host scales allowed us to better assess the wood mouse immune response to changes in parasite infection dynamics after anthelminthic treatment. This same approach could be used to understand helminth infections and responses to parasite control measures in other systems in order to gain a broader view of how variation impacts the immune response

Closely-related Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu stricto) strains exhibit similar fitness in single infections and asymmetric competition in multiple infections

Wild hosts are commonly co-infected with complex, genetically diverse, pathogen communities. Competition is expected between genetically or ecologically similar pathogen strains which may influence patterns of coexistence. However, there is little data on how specific strains of these diverse pathogen species interact within the host and how this impacts pathogen persistence in nature. Ticks are the most common disease vector in temperate regions with Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, being the most common vector-borne pathogen in North America. Borrelia burgdorferi is a pathogen of high public health concern and there is significant variation in infection phenotype between strains, which influences predictions of pathogen dynamics and spread.In a laboratory experiment, we investigated whether two closely-related strains of B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) showed similar transmission phenotypes, how the transmission of these strains changed when a host was infected with one strain, re-infected with the same strain, or co-infected with two strains. Ixodes scapularis, the black-legged tick, nymphs were used to sequentially infect laboratory-bred Peromyscus leucopus, white-footed mice, with one strain only, homologous infection with the same stain, or heterologous infection with both strains. We used the results of this laboratory experiment to simulate long-term persistence and maintenance of each strain in a simple simulation model.Strain LG734 was more competitive than BL206, showing no difference in transmission between the heterologous infection groups and single-infection controls, while strain BL206 transmission was significantly reduced when strain LG734 infected first. The results of the model show that this asymmetry in competition could lead to extinction of strain BL206 unless there was a tick-to-host transmission advantage to this less competitive strain.This asymmetric competitive interaction suggests that strain identity and the biotic context of co-infection is important to predict strain dynamics and persistence

Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis

Citation: Hanzlicek, G. A., Raghavan, R. K., Ganta, R. R., & Anderson, G. A. (2016). Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis. Plos One, 11(3), 13. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151924The space-time pattern and environmental drivers (land cover, climate) of bovine anaplasmosis in the Midwestern state of Kansas was retrospectively evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models and publicly available, remotely-sensed environmental covariate information. Cases of bovine anaplasmosis positively diagnosed at Kansas State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (n = 478) between years 2005-2013 were used to construct the models, which included random effects for space, time and space-time interaction effects with defined priors, and fixed-effect covariates selected a priori using an univariate screening procedure. The Bayesian posterior median and 95% credible intervals for the space-time interaction term in the best-fitting covariate model indicated a steady progression of bovine anaplasmosis over time and geographic area in the state. Posterior median estimates and 95% credible intervals derived for covariates in the final covariate model indicated land surface temperature (minimum), relative humidity and diurnal temperature range to be important risk factors for bovine anaplasmosis in the study. The model performance measured using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value indicated a good performance for the covariate model (>0.7). The relevance of climatological factors for bovine anaplasmosis is discussed

A novel clinical score (InterTAK Diagnostic Score) to differentiate takotsubo syndrome from acute coronary syndrome: results from the International Takotsubo Registry

AIMS. Clinical presentation of takotsubo syndrome (TTS) mimics acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and does not allow differentiation. We aimed to develop a clinical score to estimate the probability of TTS and to distinguish TTS from ACS in the acute stage. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with TTS were recruited from the International Takotsubo Registry ( www.takotsubo-registry.com) and ACS patients from the leading hospital in Zurich. A multiple logistic regression for the presence of TTS was performed in a derivation cohort (TTS, n = 218; ACS, n = 436). The best model was selected and formed a score (InterTAK Diagnostic Score) with seven variables, and each was assigned a score value: female sex 25, emotional trigger 24, physical trigger 13, absence of ST-segment depression (except in lead aVR) 12, psychiatric disorders 11, neurologic disorders 9, and QTc prolongation 6 points. The area under the curve (AUC) for the resulting score was 0.971 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96-0.98] and using a cut-off value of 40 score points, sensitivity was 89% and specificity 91%. When patients with a score of ≥50 were diagnosed as TTS, nearly 95% of TTS patients were correctly diagnosed. When patients with a score ≤31 were diagnosed as ACS, ∼95% of ACS patients were diagnosed correctly. The score was subsequently validated in an independent validation cohort (TTS, n = 173; ACS, n = 226), resulting in a score AUC of 0.901 (95% CI 0.87-0.93). CONCLUSION: The InterTAK Diagnostic Score estimates the probability of the presence of TTS and is able to distinguish TTS from ACS with a high sensitivity and specificity

Happy heart syndrome. role of positive emotional stress in takotsubo syndrome

AIMS: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is typically provoked by negative stressors such as grief, anger, or fear leading to the popular term 'broken heart syndrome'. However, the role of positive emotions triggering TTS remains unclear. The aim of the present study was to analyse the prevalence and characteristics of patients with TTS following pleasant events, which are distinct from the stressful or undesirable episodes commonly triggering TTS. METHODS AND RESULTS: Takotsubo syndrome patients with preceding pleasant events were compared to those with negative emotional triggers from the International Takotsubo Registry. Of 1750 TTS patients, we identified a total of 485 with a definite emotional trigger. Of these, 4.1% (n = 20) presented with pleasant preceding events and 95.9% (n = 465) with unequivocal negative emotional events associated with TTS. Interestingly, clinical presentation of patients with 'happy heart syndrome' was similar to those with the 'broken heart syndrome' including symptoms such as chest pain [89.5% (17/19) vs. 90.2% (412/457), P = 1.0]. Similarly, electrocardiographic parameters, laboratory findings, and 1-year outcome did not differ. However, in a post hoc analysis, a disproportionate higher prevalence of midventricular involvement was noted in 'happy hearts' compared with 'broken hearts' (35.0 vs. 16.3%, P = 0.030). CONCLUSION: Our data illustrate that TTS can be triggered by not only negative but also positive life events. While patient characteristics were similar between groups, the midventricular TTS type was more prevalent among the 'happy hearts' than among the 'broken hearts'. Presumably, despite their distinct nature, happy and sad life events may share similar final common emotional pathways, which can ultimately trigger TTS