A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa

On the 4 November 2011 a flash flood event hit the area of Genoa with dramatic consequences. Such an event represents, from the meteorological and hydrological perspective, a paradigm of flash floods in the Mediterranean environment. <br><br> The hydro-meteorological probabilistic forecasting system for small and medium size catchments in use at the Civil Protection Centre of Liguria region exhibited excellent performances for the event, by predicting, 24–48 h in advance, the potential level of risk associated with the forecast. It greatly helped the decision makers in issuing a timely and correct alert. <br><br> In this work we present the operational outputs of the system provided during the Liguria events and the post event hydrological modelling analysis that has been carried out accounting also for the crowd sourcing information and data. We discuss the benefit of the implemented probabilistic systems for decision-making under uncertainty, highlighting how, in this case, the multi-catchment approach used for predicting floods in small basins has been crucial

Sebomic identification of sex- and ethnicity-specific variations in residual skin surface components (RSSC) for bio-monitoring or forensic applications

Background: “Residual skin surface components” (RSSC) is the collective term used for the superficial layer of sebum, residue of sweat, small quantities of intercellular lipids and components of natural moisturising factor present on the skin surface. Potential applications of RSSC include use as a sampling matrix for identifying biomarkers of disease, environmental exposure monitoring, and forensics (retrospective identification of exposure to toxic chemicals). However, it is essential to first define the composition of “normal” RSSC. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to characterise RSSC to determine commonalities and differences in RSSC composition in relation to sex and ethnicity. Methods: Samples of RSSC were acquired from volunteers using a previously validated method and analysed by high-pressure liquid chromatography–atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation–mass spectrometry (HPLC-APCI-MS). The resulting data underwent sebomic analysis. Results: The composition and abundance of RSSC components varied according to sex and ethnicity. The normalised abundance of free fatty acids, wax esters, diglycerides and triglycerides was significantly higher in males than females. Ethnicity-specific differences were observed in free fatty acids and a diglyceride. Conclusions: The HPLC-APCI-MS method developed in this study was successfully used to analyse the normal composition of RSSC. Compositional differences in the RSSC can be attributed to sex and ethnicity and may reflect underlying factors such as diet, hormonal levels and enzyme expression.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Crude incidence in two-phase designs in the presence of competing risks.

BackgroundIn many studies, some information might not be available for the whole cohort, some covariates, or even the outcome, might be ascertained in selected subsamples. These studies are part of a broad category termed two-phase studies. Common examples include the nested case-control and the case-cohort designs. For two-phase studies, appropriate weighted survival estimates have been derived; however, no estimator of cumulative incidence accounting for competing events has been proposed. This is relevant in the presence of multiple types of events, where estimation of event type specific quantities are needed for evaluating outcome.MethodsWe develop a non parametric estimator of the cumulative incidence function of events accounting for possible competing events. It handles a general sampling design by weights derived from the sampling probabilities. The variance is derived from the influence function of the subdistribution hazard.ResultsThe proposed method shows good performance in simulations. It is applied to estimate the crude incidence of relapse in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in groups defined by a genotype not available for everyone in a cohort of nearly 2000 patients, where death due to toxicity acted as a competing event. In a second example the aim was to estimate engagement in care of a cohort of HIV patients in resource limited setting, where for some patients the outcome itself was missing due to lost to follow-up. A sampling based approach was used to identify outcome in a subsample of lost patients and to obtain a valid estimate of connection to care.ConclusionsA valid estimator for cumulative incidence of events accounting for competing risks under a general sampling design from an infinite target population is derived

Validity of self reported male balding patterns in epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND: Several studies have investigated the association between male pattern baldness and disease such as prostate cancer and cardiovascular disease. Limitations in the lack of standardized instruments to measure male pattern baldness have resulted in researchers measuring balding patterns in a variety of ways. This paper examines the accuracy and reliability of assessment of balding patterns by both trained observers and men themselves, using the Hamilton-Norwood classification system. METHODS: An observational study was carried out in Western Australia with 105 male volunteers aged between 30 and 70 years. Participants completed a short questionnaire and selected a picture that best represented their balding pattern. Two trained data collectors also independently assessed the participant's balding pattern using the same system and the men's self assessment was compared with the trained observer's assessment. In a substudy, observers assessed the balding pattern in a photo of the man aged 35 years while the man independently rated his balding at that age. RESULTS: Observers were very reliable in their assessment of balding pattern (85% exact agreement, κ = 0.83). Compared to trained observers, men were moderately accurate in their self-assessment of their balding status (48–55% exact agreement, κ = 0.39–0.46). For the substudy the exact agreement between the men and the observers was 67% and the agreement within balding groups was 87%. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that male balding patterns be assessed by trained personnel using the Hamilton-Norwood classification system. Where the use of trained personnel is not feasible, men's self assessment both currently and retrospectively has been shown to be adequate

The validation service of the hydrological SAF geostationary and polar satellite precipitation products

Abstract. The development phase (DP) of the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility for Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) led to the design and implementation of several precipitation products, after 5 yr (2005–2010) of activity. Presently, five precipitation estimation algorithms based on data from passive microwave and infrared sensors, on board geostationary and sun-synchronous platforms, function in operational mode at the H-SAF hosting institute to provide near real-time precipitation products at different spatial and temporal resolutions. In order to evaluate the precipitation product accuracy, a validation activity has been established since the beginning of the project. A Precipitation Product Validation Group (PPVG) works in parallel with the development of the estimation algorithms with two aims: to provide the algorithm developers with indications to refine algorithms and products, and to evaluate the error structure to be associated with the operational products. In this paper, the framework of the PPVG is presented: (a) the characteristics of the ground reference data available to H-SAF (i.e. radar and rain gauge networks), (b) the agreed upon validation strategy settled among the eight European countries participating in the PPVG, and (c) the steps of the validation procedures. The quality of the reference data is discussed, and the efforts for its improvement are outlined, with special emphasis on the definition of a ground radar quality map and on the implementation of a suitable rain gauge interpolation algorithm. The work done during the H-SAF development phase has led the PPVG to converge into a common validation procedure among the members, taking advantage of the experience acquired by each one of them in the validation of H-SAF products. The methodology is presented here, indicating the main steps of the validation procedure (ground data quality control, spatial interpolation, up-scaling of radar data vs. satellite grid, statistical score evaluation, case study analysis). Finally, an overview of the results is presented, focusing on the monthly statistical indicators, referred to the satellite product performances over different seasons and areas

Probiotic Bacteria Induce a ‘Glow of Health’

Radiant skin and hair are universally recognized as indications of good health. However, this ‘glow of health’ display remains poorly understood. We found that feeding of probiotic bacteria to aged mice induced integumentary changes mimicking peak health and reproductive fitness characteristic of much younger animals. Eating probiotic yogurt triggered epithelial follicular anagen-phase shift with sebocytogenesis resulting in thick lustrous fur due to a bacteria-triggered interleukin-10-dependent mechanism. Aged male animals eating probiotics exhibited increased subcuticular folliculogenesis, when compared with matched controls, yielding luxuriant fur only in probiotic-fed subjects. Female animals displayed probiotic-induced hyperacidity coinciding with shinier hair, a feature that also aligns with fertility in human females. Together these data provide insights into mammalian evolution and novel strategies for integumentary health