“Financial bubbles” and monetary policy

The relevance of this research is caused by the need of strengthening a role of monetary regulators to prevent financial bubbles in the financial markets. The aim of the article is the analysis of a problem of crisis phenomena in the markets of financial assets owing to an inadequate growth of their cost, owing to subjective reasons. The leading approach to mechanism research of crisis phenomena in the market of financial assets is the approach based on a balance effect. Results: authors developed offers to prevent the crisis phenomena in the financial markets due to credit expansion. There is proved the necessity to develop a risk assessment system on existing and new financial instruments, with their obligatory application by commercial banks and rating agencies. The materials of the article can be useful at further studying the reasons for financial bubbles, development of actions for their prevention, and also in an educational process when studying certain subjects. © 2016 Tikhonov, Pudovkina and Permjakova

Клинико-лабораторный алгоритм диагностики острой цитомегаловирусной инфекции у детей

The aim. of the study is to optimize the Iaboratory diagnosis of cytomegaIovirus infection in chiIdren by finding cIinicaI and Iaboratory predictors corresponding to the acute stage of infection.MateriaIs and methods. The resuIts of 65 chiIdren age from 1 to 3 years outpatient of with cytomegaIovirus mono-nucIeosis are presented. Markers of herpes virus infections (CMV, EBV, HHV-6 type) were determined by PCR-reaI time (bIood, saIiva) and seroIogicaIIy (IgM, IgG).ResuIts. It has been estabIished. that acute cytomegaIovirus infection can occur both, in the form of infectious mononu-cIeosis and. be atypicaI accompanied, by proIonged fever and. severe Iymphadenopathy in most cases. Indirect Iaboratory markers of acute cytomegaIovirus infection are neutropenia and. hypoimmunogIobuIinemia IgA and. IgG. Acute cytomeg-aIovirus infection is accompanied by the virus shedding in both bIood and saIiva in aImost aII patients and the median vaIues of the viraI Ioad are different: 3,9 Ig DNA copies / mI for bIood, 4,9 Ig DNA copies / ml for saIiva. Using mathemati-caI modeIing, the “cut off" vaIue of viraI Ioad. for saIiva was determined, to be 4,1 Ig DNA copies / mI corresponding to 65.0% of the probabiIity of deveIoping acute CMV infection.ConcIusion. The study made it possibIe to substantiate the aIgorithm. for diagnosing acute cytomegaIovirus infection. in young chiIdren which. incIudes the most significant cIinicaI Iaboratory predictors, as weII as the caIcuIated. “cut off" vaIue of viraI Ioad. for saIiva equaI to 4,1 Ig DNA copies / mI. Determining the viraI Ioad in the saIiva of patients can be used, as an additionaI diagnostic criterion for the atypicaI form of acute cytomegaIovirus infection.Цель: оптимизировать лабораторную диагностику цитомегаловирусной инфекции у детей путем, определения клинических и лабораторных предикторов, соответствующих острой стадии инфекции.Материалы и методы: представлены, результаты, амбулаторного наблюдения 65 детей с цитомегалови-русным мононуклеозом. в возрасте от. 1 до 3 лет.. Маркеры. герпес-вирусных инфекций (ЦМВ, ВЭБ, ВГЧ-6 типа) определяли методом. ПЦР-reaI time (кровь, слюна) и серологически (IgM, IgG).Результаты: установлено, что острая цитоме-галовирусная инфекция может, как протекать в виде инфекционного мононуклеоза, так и быть атипичной, сопровождаясь длительной лихорадкой и выраженной лимфаденопатией в большинстве случаев. Косвенными лабораторными маркерами острой цитомегаловирусной инфекции являются нейтропения и гипоиммуногло-булинемия IgA и IgG. Острая цитомегаловирусная инфекция сопровождается выделением вируса как в кровь, так и в слюну практически у всех пациентов, причем, значения медиан вирусной нагрузки различны: для крови 3,9 Ig копий ДНК/мл, для слюны. — 4,9 Ig копий ДНК/мл. С помощью математического моделирования определено «пороговое» значение вирусной нагрузки для слюны., равное 4,1I g копий ДНК/мл, соответствующее 65,0% вероятности развития острой ЦМВИ.Заключение: проведенное исследование позволило обосновать алгоритм, диагностики острой цитомегаловирусной инфекции у детей раннего возраста, включающий в себя наиболее значимые клинико-лабораторные предикторы, а также рассчитанное ««пороговое» значение вирусной нагрузки для слюны, равное 4,1 Ig копий ДНК/мл. Определение вирусной нагрузки в слюне пациентов можно использовать как дополнительный диагностический критерий при атипичной форме острой цитомегаловирусной инфекции

ФАКТОРЫ РИСКА, АССОЦИИРОВАННЫЕ С РОЖДЕНИЕМ ДЕТЕЙ С МАССОЙ ТЕЛА МЕНЕЕ 2500 Г: РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ РЕТРОСПЕКТИВНОГО КОГОРТНОГО МНОГОЦЕНТРОВОГО ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ

Background. Improving nursing methods of newborns with birth weight less than 2500 g resulted in an increase in the proportion of children at risk for the development of severe disabling conditions. Objective: Our aim was to investigate the risk factors of the mother, associated with the birth of a child with a birth weight less than 2500 g. Methods. In a retrospective cohort study included 572 children born to 566 mothers in 5 perinatal centers. Risk assessment was carried out taking into account birth weight (in groups of children with normal, low, very low and extremely low birth weight). Results. Sample of mothers (n = 489), whose children had birth weight     2500 g, characterized by a mean age of 31 (26; 35) years, the growth of 164 (159; 168) cm, weighing when registering for pregnancy 62 (53; 74) and 70 kg (60; 80) kg just before birth. Among the independent predictors of birth weight infants were allocated as follows: maternal education (higher/more), mother occupation (housewife/other), presence of chronic diseases, anemia during pregnancy, the threat of premature births, growth and weight of the mother’s body before birth, weight gain body during pregnancy, body mass index (BMI) when registering for antenatal care in pregnancy and before delivery. Conclusion. Identified risk factors for maternal birth weight infants, which can be used to stratify pregnant women at risk.Совершенствование  методов  выхаживания  новорожденных  с массой тела  при рождении  менее 2500  г привело к увеличению доли  детей группы риска по развитию тяжелых  инвалидизирующих  состояний.Цель  исследования: изучить факторы  риска со стороны матери, ассоциированные  с рождением  ребенка массой тела  менее 2500  г.Методы.  В ретроспективное  когортное  исследование  включены  данные 572  детей,  рожденных  от  566  матерей в 5 перинатальных центрах. Оценку факторов риска проводили  с учетом массы тела при рождении  (в группах детей с нормальной, низкой, очень низкой и экстремально низкой массой тела).Результаты. Выборка матерей (n = 489), чьи дети имели при рождении  массу тела      2500 г, характеризовалась средним возрастом 31 (26; 35) год, ростом 164 (159; 168) см, массой тела 62 (53; 74) кг при постановке на учет по беременности и 70 (60; 80) кг непосредственно перед родами. В числе независимых предикторов рождения маловесных детей были выделены следующие: образование  матери (высшее/другое), занятость  матери (домохозяйка/другое),  наличие хронических заболеваний, анемии во время беременности, угроза преждевременных родов, рост и масса тела матери до родов, прибавка массы тела во время беременности, индексы массы тела при постановке на учет по беременности в женскую консультацию и перед родами.Заключение. Определены факторы риска рождения маловесных детей со стороны матери, что может быть использовано для стратификации беременных женщин по группам риска

The clinical and laboratory algorithm for the diagnosis of acute cytomegalovirus infection in children

The aim. of the study is to optimize the Iaboratory diagnosis of cytomegaIovirus infection in chiIdren by finding cIinicaI and Iaboratory predictors corresponding to the acute stage of infection.MateriaIs and methods. The resuIts of 65 chiIdren age from 1 to 3 years outpatient of with cytomegaIovirus mono-nucIeosis are presented. Markers of herpes virus infections (CMV, EBV, HHV-6 type) were determined by PCR-reaI time (bIood, saIiva) and seroIogicaIIy (IgM, IgG).ResuIts. It has been estabIished. that acute cytomegaIovirus infection can occur both, in the form of infectious mononu-cIeosis and. be atypicaI accompanied, by proIonged fever and. severe Iymphadenopathy in most cases. Indirect Iaboratory markers of acute cytomegaIovirus infection are neutropenia and. hypoimmunogIobuIinemia IgA and. IgG. Acute cytomeg-aIovirus infection is accompanied by the virus shedding in both bIood and saIiva in aImost aII patients and the median vaIues of the viraI Ioad are different: 3,9 Ig DNA copies / mI for bIood, 4,9 Ig DNA copies / ml for saIiva. Using mathemati-caI modeIing, the “cut off" vaIue of viraI Ioad. for saIiva was determined, to be 4,1 Ig DNA copies / mI corresponding to 65.0% of the probabiIity of deveIoping acute CMV infection.ConcIusion. The study made it possibIe to substantiate the aIgorithm. for diagnosing acute cytomegaIovirus infection. in young chiIdren which. incIudes the most significant cIinicaI Iaboratory predictors, as weII as the caIcuIated. “cut off" vaIue of viraI Ioad. for saIiva equaI to 4,1 Ig DNA copies / mI. Determining the viraI Ioad in the saIiva of patients can be used, as an additionaI diagnostic criterion for the atypicaI form of acute cytomegaIovirus infection

Research indicators of railway transport activity in time series

The urgency of the analyzed problem, connected with the trends description and the choice of the econometric model in unstable performance evaluation of transport, is due to the role of rail transport in the development of the Russian economy, as the bulk of goods and passengers are transported by rail. The purpose of the article is to describe the trends and the development of econometric models to assess and predict the performance of rail transport in Russia. The leading method of research is the analysis method of historical time series using adaptive models based on Chow test, which allows describing the trends in rail transport in Russia. The results of Chow test for the structural stability series of indicators of passenger and freight rail transport have shown the absence of a general trend in the historical time series. In such cases, to describe the trends the authors may not apply analytic alignment and it is advisable to use self-correcting recurrent models that take into account the importance of previous levels, and provide an opportunity to get reasonably accurate projections of future levels. Forecasting of considered indicators based on a two-parameter exponential smoothing model has showed further growth in turnover and a decrease in passenger rail transport. The data of this article may be useful for various levels of government in the development of economic development programs of Russia and its regions. © International Economic Society

RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BIRTH OF CHILDREN WITH A BODY WEIGHT LESS THAN 2500 G: RESULTS OF A RETROSPECTIVE COHORT MULTICENTER STUDY

Background. Improving nursing methods of newborns with birth weight less than 2500 g resulted in an increase in the proportion of children at risk for the development of severe disabling conditions. Objective: Our aim was to investigate the risk factors of the mother, associated with the birth of a child with a birth weight less than 2500 g. Methods. In a retrospective cohort study included 572 children born to 566 mothers in 5 perinatal centers. Risk assessment was carried out taking into account birth weight (in groups of children with normal, low, very low and extremely low birth weight). Results. Sample of mothers (n = 489), whose children had birth weight     2500 g, characterized by a mean age of 31 (26; 35) years, the growth of 164 (159; 168) cm, weighing when registering for pregnancy 62 (53; 74) and 70 kg (60; 80) kg just before birth. Among the independent predictors of birth weight infants were allocated as follows: maternal education (higher/more), mother occupation (housewife/other), presence of chronic diseases, anemia during pregnancy, the threat of premature births, growth and weight of the mother’s body before birth, weight gain body during pregnancy, body mass index (BMI) when registering for antenatal care in pregnancy and before delivery. Conclusion. Identified risk factors for maternal birth weight infants, which can be used to stratify pregnant women at risk