Snowfall Statistics of Some SASE Field Stations in J&K

North-west Himalayan region comprises five mountain ranges. Their orientation and complexterrain influence the weather over the region. Sudden altitudinal changes also affect the weathersystems to a considerable extent . Due to the prevailing in homogeneous topography, various dynamicand thermal processes take place at mesoscale level. In synoptic scale, during winter seasons, weathersystems, named, western disturbance (WD), take their southerly track and travel over J&K, HP andhills of western UP, and yield considerable amount of precipitation. On the basis of past historicaldata collected over J&K region, the pattern of snowfall and its frequency distribution was studiedusing statistical means. Variation of these snowfall spells was also studied to understand spatial andtemporal changes in their distribution. A brief case study of a WD has been carried out to estimatemoisture flux inflow over Himalayas

Location-specific prediction of the probability of occurrence and quantity of precipitation over the Western Himalayas

Northwest India is composed, in part, of complex Himalayan mountain ranges having different altitudes and orientations, causing the prevailing weather conditions to be complex. During winter, a large amount of precipitation is received in this region due to eastward-moving low pressure synoptic weather systems called western disturbances (WDs). The objective of the present study is to use the perfect prognostic method (PPM) for probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasting and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). Three observatories in the western Himalayan region, namely, Sonamarg, Haddan Taj, and Manali, are selected for development of statistical dynamical models for location-specific prediction of the occurrence and quantity of precipitation. Reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and upper-air and surface observations from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), are used to develop statistical dynamical models for PoP and QPF for winter, that is, December, January, February, and March (DJFM). Models are developed with data from DJFM 1984-96 and tested with data from DJFM 1996-97. Four experiments are carried out with four different sets of predictors to evaluate the performance of the models with independent datasets. They are 1) NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, 2) operational analyses from the National Centre for Medium RangeWeather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in India, 3) day 1 forecasts with a T80 global spectral model at NCMRWF, and 4) forecasts from the regional fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) day 1 forecast. Forecast skills are examined for these four experiments and for direct numerical model outputs of T80 day 1 and MM5 day 1 forecasts at these three stations. It is found that a best prediction is made with an accuracy of 89% at Haddan Taj using the MM5 day 1 forecast as predictors in the PoP model. In the case of the QPF model, a maximum 85% accuracy is achieved using the MM5 day 1 forecast variables as predictors. Thus, use of numerical model output from MM5 as predictors in statistical dynamical models based on the PPM concept provides definite improvements in the prediction of occurrence and quantity of precipitation as compared to the direct numerical model output

Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India

Mountains over the world are considered as the indicators of climate change. The Himalayas are comprised of five ranges, viz., Pir Panjal, Great Himalayas, Zanskar, Ladhak, and Karakorum. The Ladakh region lies in the northernmost state of India, Jammu and Kashmir, in the Ladhak range. It has a unique cold-arid climate and lies immediately south of the Karakorum range. With scarce water resources, such regions show high sensitivity and vulnerability to the change in climate and need urgent attention. The objective of this study is to understand the climate of the Ladakh region and to characterize its changing climate. Using different temperature and precipitation datasets over Leh and surrounding regions, we statistically analyze the current trends of climatic patterns over the region. The study shows that the climate over Leh shows a warming trend with reduced precipitation in the current decade. The reduced average seasonal precipitation might also be associated with some indications of reducing number of days with higher precipitation amounts over the region

Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00–18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation

Deletion analysis of BMI1 oncoprotein identifies its negative regulatory domain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The polycomb group (PcG) protein BMI1 is an important regulator of development. Additionally, aberrant expression of BMI1 has been linked to cancer stem cell phenotype and oncogenesis. In particular, its overexpression has been found in several human malignancies including breast cancer. Despite its established role in stem cell maintenance, cancer and development, at present not much is known about the functional domains of BMI1 oncoprotein. In the present study, we carried out a deletion analysis of BMI1 to identify its negative regulatory domain.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We report that deletion of the C-terminal domain of BMI1, which is rich in proline-serine (PS) residues and previously described as PEST-like domain, increased the stability of BMI1, and promoted its pro-oncogenic activities in human mammary epithelial cells (HMECs). Specifically, overexpression of a PS region deleted mutant of BMI1 increased proliferation of HMECs and promoted an epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) phenotype in the HMECs. Furthermore, when compared to the wild type BMI1, exogenous expression of the mutant BMI1 led to a significant downregulation of p16INK4a and an efficient bypass of cellular senescence in human diploid fibroblasts.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In summary, our data suggest that the PS domain of BMI1 is involved in its stability and that it negatively regulates function of BMI1 oncoprotein. Our results also suggest that the PS domain of BMI1 could be targeted for the treatment of proliferative disorders such as cancer and aging.</p

Statistical model-based forecast of minimum and maximum temperatures at Manali

Various types of avalanches frequent northwest Himalayan regions during winter months. Winter season over this region is frequented by westwardmoving weather systems called western disturbances (WDs). These weather systems yield enormous amount of precipitation. Knowledge of minimum and maximum temperatures during winter months is very useful for assessing human and natural hazards. Models for forecasting minimum and maximum temperatures have been developed for Manali in Himanchal Pradesh, for the months of December, January and February. These models are based on statistical techniques and use surface and upper air meteorological data from 1984 to 1989. The models are also tested with independent data and the results for 1995-96 are presented. The models yield good results with independent cases providing about 88% correct forecast within ±2°C of the observed values

Transdermal Drug Delivery System in Veterinary Practice: An Overview

In veterinary practice drug delivery strategies are complicated by species diversity, body size variations, cost constraints and level of convenience. A new frontier in the administration of therapeutic drugs to veterinary species is transdermal drug delivery system. It implies topical drug application to achieve systemic pharmacological effects. Its efficacy is primarily dependent upon the barrier properties of the targeted species skin, as well as the ratio of the area of the patch to the species total body mass needed to achieve effective systemic drug concentrations. The candidate drug must have sufficient lipid solubility to be considered for transdermal delivery. The adhesive of the patches is critical to the safety, efficacy and quality of the product. This novel drug delivery system offers many advantages over conventional oral and invasive methods of drug delivery like reduction in hepatic first pass metabolism, enhancement of therapeutic efficiency, maintenance of steady plasma level of the drug and improved owner compliance. With efficient experimental designs and available transdermal patch technology, there are no obvious hurdles for the development of effective therapeutic agents in veterinary practice

Habitat use pattern and conservation status of smooth–coated otters Lutrogale perspicillata in the Upper Ganges Basin, India

Modelo de uso del hábitat y estado de conservación de las nutrias lisas Lutrogale perspicillata en la zona alta de la cuenca del Ganges, India Las nutrias lisas habitan en varios sistemas fluviales importantes del Asia meridional y sus necesidades medioambientales las vinculan con problemas de seguridad alimentaria e hídrica, debido a la elevada densidad de humanos. La falta de datos de referencia sobre su distribución y ecología es otra limitación notable que la especie está afrontando en la India. El presente estudio se vio impulsado por el rápido descenso de la población de nutrias en el país y se centra en estimar el estado de conservación, el modelo de uso del hábitat y las amenazas asociadas en la zona alta de la cuenca del río Ganges (Asia septentrional). Nuestros resultados contribuyen a comprender mejor las complejas interacciones ecológicas y a elaborar medidas de conservación eficaces. Junto con las preferencias de hábitat, en el estudio también se informa sobre nuevas ubicaciones en la distribución de la especie. Asimismo se ponen de relieve las deficiencias existentes en la conservación de la especie y se sugieren las zonas cuya ordenación debería ser prioritaria.Smooth–coated otters inhabit several major river systems in southern Asia, and their environmental requirements link them to food and water security issues as the region is so densely populated by humans. The lack of baseline data on their distribution and ecology is another major constraint that the species is facing in India. The present study was stimulated by the rapid decline in the otter’s population in the country and focuses on estimating the conservation status, habitat use pattern, and associated threats in the upper Ganges River Basin (N India). Our findings contribute towards a better understanding of the complex ecological interactions and the design of effective conservation measures. Coupled with the habitat preferences, the study also provides new locations in the species distribution. This paper highlights the gap areas in the conservation of the species and suggests areas that should be prioritized for management.Modelo de uso del hábitat y estado de conservación de las nutrias lisas Lutrogale perspicillata en la zona alta de la cuenca del Ganges, India Las nutrias lisas habitan en varios sistemas fluviales importantes del Asia meridional y sus necesidades medioambientales las vinculan con problemas de seguridad alimentaria e hídrica, debido a la elevada densidad de humanos. La falta de datos de referencia sobre su distribución y ecología es otra limitación notable que la especie está afrontando en la India. El presente estudio se vio impulsado por el rápido descenso de la población de nutrias en el país y se centra en estimar el estado de conservación, el modelo de uso del hábitat y las amenazas asociadas en la zona alta de la cuenca del río Ganges (Asia septentrional). Nuestros resultados contribuyen a comprender mejor las complejas interacciones ecológicas y a elaborar medidas de conservación eficaces. Junto con las preferencias de hábitat, en el estudio también se informa sobre nuevas ubicaciones en la distribución de la especie. Asimismo se ponen de relieve las deficiencias existentes en la conservación de la especie y se sugieren las zonas cuya ordenación debería ser prioritaria

Wavelet analysis of the seismograms for tsunami warning

The complexity in the tsunami phenomenon makes the available warning systems not much effective in the practical situations. The problem arises due to the time lapsed in the data transfer, processing and modeling. The modeling and simulation needs the input fault geometry and mechanism of the earthquake. The estimation of these parameters and other aprior information increases the utilized time for making any warning. Here, the wavelet analysis is used to identify the tsunamigenesis of an earthquake. The frequency content of the seismogram in time scale domain is examined using wavelet transform. The energy content in high frequencies is calculated and gives a threshold for tsunami warnings. Only first few minutes of the seismograms of the earthquake events are used for quick estimation. The results for the earthquake events of Andaman Sumatra region and other historic events are promising

Sectorwise assessment of glacial lake outburst flood danger in the Indian Himalayan region

Climate change and associated glacier recession have led to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones across the Himalayas. Many pose a potential glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) threat to downstream communities and infrastructure. In this paper, 4418 glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayan Region and 636 transboundary lakes are analyzed. We consider hazard, exposure, and integrated danger levels using robust geographic information system-based automated approaches. The hazard level of lakes was estimated based on the potential for avalanches to strike the lake, size of the lake and its upstream watershed, and distal slope of its dam. Exposure levels were calculated by intersecting cropland, roads, hydropower projects, and the human population with potential GLOF trajectories. Then, GLOF danger was determined as a function of hazard and exposure. The study demonstrates that Jammu and Kashmir (JK) is potentially the most threatened region in terms of total number of very high and high danger lakes (n = 556), followed by Arunachal Pradesh (AP) (n = 388) and Sikkim (SK) (n = 219). Sectorwise, JK faces the greatest GLOF threat to roads and population, whereas the threat to cropland and hydropower is greatest in AP and SK, respectively. Transboundary lakes primarily threaten AP and, to a lesser extent, Himachal Pradesh (HP). For Uttarakhand (UK), the impacts of potential future glacial lakes, expected to form during rapid ongoing glacier recession because of climate change, are explored. Finally, a comparison of current results with previous studies suggests that 13 lakes in SK, 5 in HP, 4 in JK, 2 in UK, and 1 in AP are of highest priority for local investigation and potential risk reduction measures. Current results are of vital importance to policymakers, disaster management authorities, and the scientific community