Impacts of seasonal climate communication strategies on farm management and livelihoods in Wote, Kenya

This study was undertaken in Wote division, Makueni district, Eastern province, Kenya, to test the effectiveness of different methods of communicating downscaled seasonal climate forecast information, and to assess its impact on management and productivity of smallholder farms. The communication methods tested include training workshops aimed at helping farmers understand downscaled probabilistic climate forecast information, agro-advisories that combined forecast information with advice on potential management options, and a combination of training and agro-advisory workshops. The study was conducted with about 120 farmers, 10 from each of 12 villages selected randomly from the villages that are within a 5 km radius from Kampi Ya Mawe research station for which long-term climate records are available, during the 2011-2012 short rain season. Three surveys, implemented during the pre-, mid- and end-season periods, captured changes in management, productivity, and attitudes, associated with the provision of climate information. Relative to the control sample, farmers with access to enhanced climate information reduced their cropped area, invested in more intensive crop management, and achieved higher yields with attractive returns on investment relative to farmers in control villages. Farmers from treatment villages also demonstrated appreciation of the role of climate information in planning and managing farm activities, higher satisfaction with the season, and strong interest in receiving climate information on a regular basis. This interest was demonstrated by their willingness to pay a modest amount for the service if required. The evaluation was disaggregated by gender. Gender influenced adjustments to crop mix in response to climate information, with women preferring short-duration legumes. Gender did not appear to affect the subjective value put on climate information, or willingness to pay. The study findings suggest that both of the workshop-based approaches to communicating climate information improved farers’ ability to manage risks. However the sample size was not sufficient to provide conclusive evidence of the impact on yields, investments or livelihoods. It is therefore suggested that similar assessments with a much larger sample in different agro-ecologies, and more comprehensive baseline data collection, be planned to make a more conclusive assessment of farmers’ ability to understand, utilize and benefit from seasonal climate forecast information. Such a study should aim to develop and refine training 3 modules that can help farmers and their support agents better understand climate variability, probabilistic forecasts and their application, and appropriate communication systems aimed at providing timely access to required climate information

Climate variability and change:perceptions, experiences and realities

Farming in the semi-arid tropics, where climatic conditions are marginal and highly variable, is a risky enterprise. The main source of this risk is the variability in rainfall that occurs at many different timescales, ranging from seasons to years to decades and beyond. Farmers operating under these conditions make decisions based on their perceptions and experiences gained from several years of keen observation and practice in the field. However, perceptions are influenced by many factors, both real and subjective. For agriculture, factors like farm productivity, crop, market and local preferences, capacity to invest, willingness to take risks and soil quality play an important role. While the role and significance of some of these factors on productivity and profitability can be perceived more easily due to their relative predictability, extreme variability in climate and the random nature of that variability makes it difficult for farmers to accurately perceive trends in climate. In the absence of detailed measurements, perceptions can be biased and unreliable. Climate information can play an important role in helping farmers better understand this variability and its associated risks, and enhancing their decision-making for effective risk management

Opportunities for Coping with Climate Change and Variability Through Adoption of Soil and Water Conservation Technologies in Semi-arid Eastern Kenya

Scenario analysis using data generated from APSIM model was conducted to investigate the effect of soil and water conservation practices (tied ridges and mulching) on grain yield of improved maize varieties (Katumani and Makueni) generated with and without N fertilizers under below normal (<250 mm), normal (≥250 < 350 mm) and above normal seasons (≥350 mm) in two sites, Katumani and Makindu in Machakos and Makueni counties Eastern Kenya. Results indicate that the yields were significant (<0.01) under the different seasons and treatments with the magnitude of the yields response varied. Highest yields in Katumani (3,370 kg/ha) were obtained during below normal seasons and when both fertilizer and tied ridges were used. In Makindu, however, under all treatments, highest yields were obtained during above normal seasons with 3,708 kg/ha yield when 40 kg N/ha fertilizer was applied. Lowest yields on the other hand, were obtained during normal seasons in both sites with 507 kg/ha in Katumani and 552 kg/ha under tied ridges and mulching + fertilizers in Makindu. Compared with farmers practice (control), the yield increment obtained was 4 kg/ha (0.6 %) and 5 kg/ha (0.7 %) in Katumani; 32 kg/ha (4.6 %) and 33 kg/ha (4.7 %) in Makindu under mulching and tied ridges respectively during below normal seasons otherwise the yield decreased during normal and above normal seasons with up to 19 % in Makindu when tied ridges was practised. Fertilization increased the yields of maize by as high as 2,552 kg/ha (433 %) and 2,319 kg/ha (166 %) in Katumani and Makindu respectively during above normal seasons. However, during normal seasons, there was yield decrease in Makindu by 42 %. When both fertilization and soil and water conservation practices was done, yield increase was 2,335 kg/ha (456 %) and 2,382 kg/ha (465 %) in Katumani during normal seasons under mulching +40 kg N/ha and tied ridges +40 kg N/ha respectively. In Makindu, yields declined during normal seasons, however, increase was by 2,229 kg/ha (160 %) and 2,108 kg/ha (152 %) during above normal seasons under mulching +40 kg N/ha and tied ridges +40 kg N/ha respectively. The results indicate that the use of fertilizers and soil and water conservation are indispensable for ensuring food security in semi-arids where rainfall is very variable

AGNs on the Move: A Search for Off-nuclear AGNs from Recoiling Supermassive Black Holes and Ongoing Galaxy Mergers with the Zwicky Transient Facility

A supermassive black hole (SMBH) ejected from the potential well of its host galaxy via gravitational wave recoil carries important information about the mass ratio and spin alignment of the pre-merger SMBH binary. Such a recoiling SMBH may be detectable as an active galactic nucleus (AGN) broad-line region offset by up to 10 kpc from a disturbed host galaxy. We describe a novel methodology using forward modeling with The Tractor to search for such offset AGNs in a sample of 5493 optically variable AGNs detected with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). We present the discovery of nine AGNs that may be spatially offset from their host galaxies and are candidates for recoiling SMBHs. Five of these offset AGNs exhibit double-peaked broad Balmer lines, which may have arisen from unobscured accretion disk emission, and four show radio emission indicative of a relativistic jet. The fraction of double-peaked emitters in our spatially offset AGN sample is significantly larger than the 16% double-peaked emitter fraction observed for ZTF AGNs overall. In our sample of variable AGNs we also identified 52 merging galaxies, including a new spectroscopically confirmed dual AGN. Finally, we detected the dramatic rebrightening of SDSS 1133, a previously discovered variable object and recoiling SMBH candidate, in ZTF. The flare was accompanied by the reemergence of strong P Cygni line features, indicating that SDSS 1133 may be an outbursting luminous blue variable star

Climate Variability and Change: Farmer Perceptions and Understanding of Intra-Seasonal Variability in Rainfall and Associated Risk in Semi-Arid Kenya

This study examines farmers’ perceptions of short- and long-term variability in climate, their ability to discern trends in climate and how the perceived trends converge with actual weather observations in five districts of Eastern Province in Kenya where the climate is semi-arid with high intra- and inter-annual variability in rainfall. Field surveys to elicit farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change were conducted in Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Mwingi and Mutomo districts. Long-term rainfall records from five meteorological stations within a 10 km radius from the survey locations were obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department and were analysed to compare with farmers’ observations. Farmers’ responses indicate that they are well aware of the general climate in their location, its variability, the probabilistic nature of the variability and the impacts of this variability on crop production. However, their ability to synthesize the knowledge they have gained from their observations and discern longterm trends in the probabilistic distribution of seasonal conditions is more subjective, mainly due to the compounding interactions between climate and other factors such as soil fertility, soil water and land use change that determine the climate’s overall influence on crop productivity. There is a general tendency among the farmers to give greater weight to negative impacts leading to higher risk perception. In relation to long-term changes in the climate, farmer observations in our study that rainfall patterns are changing corroborated well with reported perceptions from other places across the African continent but were not supported by the observed trends in rainfall data from the five study locations. The main implication of our findings is the need to be aware of and account for the risk during the development and promotion of technologies involving significant investments by smallholder farmers and exercise caution in interpreting farmers’ perceptions about long-term climate variability and change

Rationale and study design of a cross sectional study documenting the prevalence of Heart Failure amongst the minority ethnic communities in the UK: the E-ECHOES Study (Ethnic - Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Study)

Background: Heart failure is an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Studies to date have not established the prevalence heart failure amongst the minority ethnic community in the UK. The aim of the E-ECHOES (Ethnic - Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Study) is to establish, for the first time, the community prevalence and severity of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) and heart failure amongst the South Asian and Black African-Caribbean ethnic groups in the UK.Methods/Design: This is a community based cross-sectional population survey of a sample of South Asian (i.e. those originating from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) and Black African-Caribbean male and female subjects aged 45 years and over. Data collection undertaken using a standardised protocol comprising a questionnaire incorporating targeted clinical history taking, physical examination, and investigations with resting electrocardiography and echocardiography; and blood sampling with consent. This is the largest study on heart failure amongst these ethnic groups. Full data collection started in September 2006 and will be completed by August 2009.Discussion: The E-ECHOES study will enable the planning and delivery of clinically and cost-effective treatment of this common and debilitating condition within these communities. In addition it will increase knowledge of the aetiology and management of heart failure within minority ethnic communities

Endomyocardial Fibrosis: Still a Mystery after 60 Years

The pathologist Jack N. P. Davies identified endomyocardial fibrosis in Uganda in 1947. Since that time, reports of this restrictive cardiomyopathy have come from other parts of tropical Africa, South Asia, and South America. In Kampala, the disease accounts for 20% of heart disease patients referred for echocardiography. We conducted a systematic review of research on the epidemiology and etiology of endomyocardial fibrosis. We relied primarily on articles in the MEDLINE database with either “endomyocardial fibrosis” or “endomyocardial sclerosis” in the title. The volume of publications on endomyocardial fibrosis has declined since the 1980s. Despite several hypotheses regarding cause, no account of the etiology of this disease has yet fully explained its unique geographical distribution

"I think my body has become addicted to those tablets" Chronic heart failure patients' understanding of and beliefs about their illness and its treatment: a qualitative longitudinal study from Uganda

Patients with heart failure in Uganda present for health care with advanced structural heart disease, have repeated hospitalizations and poorly controlled disease symptoms. The reasons for these are unclear. Literature from other settings shows that patients' understanding of their illness and their beliefs influence their health related behaviour. The study aimed to explore the beliefs of patients with heart failure, their understanding of their illness and its treatment, and how this influenced their health related behaviour to inform future health education programs, information and palliative care services.Serial qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with Heart Failure patients who were purposively sampled and recruited in Mulago National Referral Hospital until thematic saturation was reached. In-depth interviews were conducted at three time points over the course of their illness with intervals of 3 months between interviews. A grounded theory approach was used in data analysis. The University of Edinburgh ethics committee, Mulago Hospital Research Ethics committee and the Uganda National Council of Science and Technology (Reference numbers D/GC/178; MREC 33, SS 3083 respectively) approved the research.A total of 40 face to face qualitative longitudinal interviews (36-patient alone, 4 paired-patient and family carer), were conducted with 21 patients. The findings revealed that heart failure patients were unaware of the symptoms of the illness and their definition of illness differed from that of health professionals. Patients understood their diagnosis, cause of illness, prognosis and the importance of the medicines differently from health professionals, and had insufficient information on self-care. Lay beliefs were used to explain many aspects of the illness and treatments. All these influenced where patients sought care and their adherence to treatment, self-care and follow up leading to uncontrolled disease.There is a high level of health illiteracy among heart failure patients in Uganda. Patients rely on lay beliefs to make health decisions and medical information is often miscomprehended. There is an urgent need for health education using culturally appropriate information