Forecasting OPEC oil price: a comparison of parametric stochastic models

Most academic papers on oil price forecasting have frequently focused on the use of WTI and European Brent oil price series with little focus on other equally important international oil price benchmarks such as the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB). The ORB is a weighted average of 11-member countries crude streams weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. This paper compares the forecasting accuracy of four stochastic processes and four univariate random walk models using daily data of OPEC Reference Basket series. The study finds that the random walk univariate model outperforms the other stochastic processes. An element of uncertainty was introduced into the point estimates by deriving probability distribution that describes the possible price paths on a given day and their likelihood of occurrence. This will help decision makers, traders and analysts to have a better understanding of the possible daily prices that could occur. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil Price Forecasting, Probability Distributions, and Forecast Evaluation Statistics, Brownian Motion with Mean Reversion process, GARCH Model

Simulation and hedging oil price with geometric Brownian Motion and single-step binomial price model

This paper[1] uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to model the behaviour of crude oil price in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The performance of the GBM method is compared with the naïve strategy using different forecast evaluation techniques. The results from the forecasting accuracy statistics suggest that the GBM outperforms the naïve model and can act as a proxy for modelling movement of oil prices. We also test the empirical viability of using a call option contract to hedge oil price declines. The results from the simulations reveal that the single-step binomial price model can be effective in hedging oil price volatility. The findings from this paper will be of interest to the government of Nigeria that views the price of oil as one of the key variables in the national budget. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil price volatility; Geometric Brownian Motion; Monte Carlo Simulation; Single-Step Binomial Price Model [1] Acknowledgement: We wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and kind considerations. Memos to: Azeez Abiola Oyedele, School of Business and Enterprise, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus, Paisley PA1 2BE, Scotland, Email: [email protected]

Prevalence Of Diabetes Mellitus Among Nigerians In Port Harcourt Correlates With Socio-Economic Status

Random blood glucose analysis by the use of the Trinder’s method was carried out to determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus among Nigerians in Port Harcourt. The study population were randomly selected and classified into two socio-economic status as high or low based on affluent diet, occupation, income and access to medical care. The mean blood glucose concentration for the high socio-economic group – staff of the oil industries was 7.42 ±0.25mmol/L and significantly higher (P < 0.001) than that for the low socio-economic class - the non- oil industrial workers, 5.33±0.45mmol/L. The prevalence of diabetes was found to be as high as 23.4% among the high socio-economic group and 16% among the low socio-economic group. Undiagonised diabetes occurred in 18.9% of the population studied and were not aware of their diabetic problem. Diabetic – awareness programmes are to be promoted with acion to identify people with diabetes early enough with the arm of providing appropriate medical treatmen

Philosophy of Education and National Development: A Philosophical Appraisal

Education, no doubt, is the key to socio-economic and political development of any nation.  This is based on the philosophy of the nation’s education system, which encapsulates her needs, goals, objectives and aspirations.  This paper observes that Nigeria has no Philosophy of Education she could call her own because of the eclectic nature of the philosophical ideas expressed in her National Policy on Education.  It also observes that some aspects of education were not provided for in the nation’s educational Magna Carta of 2004, and further highlights some of the impacts of Philosophy of Education on national development.  The paper therefore calls for remedial steps to be taken to redress the inconsistencies and contradictions that hinder smooth and rapid national development. Key words: philosophy of education, national development, long-life education.

Peace Education and National Development: A Critical Appraisal

One of the burning and bristling issues in Nigeria at the moment is the constant recurrence of violence in various forms in different parts of the country, and the need for urgent remedial measures to avoid stagnating or retarding national development.  The paper examined the concepts of peace education and development.  It also highlighted the imperatives of peace education and the implications of peace education for national development. Keywords: peace education, national development, violence, conflic

A Comparison of Measured and Predicted Haemoglobin Genotype in a Nigerian Population in Bonny, Rivers State, Nigeria

Cellulose acetate electrophoresis technique has been used to estimate haemoglobin genotype and the predicted values from the estimate in accordance with the population genetics studies (Fleming and Lehman1982) were evaluated in 850 subjects (386 males and 464 females) selected randomly from Bonny, in Rivers State, Nigeria of ages between 3 and 77 years. There was significant differences (P < 0.001) between the measured and the predicted haemoglobin genotype values suggesting that the predicted cannot be substituted for the measured. Two further haemoglobinopatheis, HbSC and HbCC were predicted to be the expected haemoglobin genotype of newborn into the population in the next decade suggesting that the incidence of abnormal haemoglobin in the population may arise from the complex interaction between the genetic constitution of the individual and some unidentified environmental factors

Effect of Water Scarcity and Its Remedy at Federal Polytechnic Oko

The project focuses on the investigation and remedy on its environment and geographic dynamic of polytechnic water scarcity. The administration grandiose under taking aims to produce some litres of fresh water in the institution by building borehole field to make vision of the current administration, a reality in the form of large expensive water schemeThe rapid growth in population notwithstanding, the administration has in its policies and maneuverability on this issue of water scarcity in spite of recent climate change promised to distribute large quantity of potable water to every nook and crannies of the polytechni

Effects of Guided Inquiry and Task Hierarchy Analysis Model in Cooperative Learning Strategy on Chemistry Students’ Performance in Imo State

The study investigated the effects of guided inquiry and task hierarchy analysis model in cooperative learning strategy on Chemistry students’ performance in Nwangele Local Government Area, Imo State. The study adopted Pretest Posttest non-equivalent quasi-experimental design. One hundred and sixty-three Chemistry students from six public schools purposively selected participated in the study. Chemistry Performance Test on Acid-Base Reactions (CPTABR) which also tested retention with a reliability index of 0.75 was developed, validated and used for data collection. Research questions were answered using mean and Standard deviation, while the null hypotheses were tested using Analysis of Covariance at 0.05 significance level. The result revealed that Guided Inquiry Learning Strategy (GILS) and Task Hierarchy Analysis Model (THAM) in Cooperative Learning Strategy (CLS) proved to be more effective than lecture method (LM) in understanding of Acid-Base Reactions. It was recommended that Guided Inquiry Learning Strategy (GILS) and Task Hierarchy Analysis Model (THAM) in Cooperative Learning Strategy (CLS) should be used by Chemistry teachers to teach Acid- Base Reactions to enhance students’ performance and retention in Chemistry

Effect of aqueous fruit extract of Xylopia aethiopica on reproductive hormones in male guinea pigs

The effect of aqueous fruit extract of xylopia aethiopica on reproductive hormones in male guinea pigs was investigated using 60 mature male guinea pigs which were randomly divided into 5 groups of 12 animals each. Daily oral doses of 2.5mg/kg, 5mg/kg, 10mg/kg and 20mg/kg of extract were administered to each of the animals in the four treatment groups respectively, while the control group received equal volume of distilled water only. Blood from 6 animals in each group were analysed for leuteinising hormone (LH), follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) andTestosterone on the 8th and 15th days of the experiment by classical ELISA method, using Human kits. The result shows a dose dependent significant (p&lt;0.05) decrease in the plasma levels of LH, FSH and Testosterone for both the 7 days and 14 days treatment groups respectively. Also, a time dependent significant (p&lt;0.05) decrease wasobserved for both LH and FSH at all treatment doses. This suggests that the use of xylopia aethiopica fruits by human males may have both dose and time dependent adverse effects on the reproductive hormones, and therefore on their reproductive capacity

Stage interpretation of Spencer Okoroafor’s “Battle of Wit and Will”: An Adaptation of Achebe’s Arrow of God

This paper is an appraisal of the power of adaptation in literary text. It is motivated by the need to critically assess the impact of the act of  adaptation in play productions. The study used the historical method to reveal the power of drama in vividly exposing themes originally in the work of the first writer. The researchers discovered that the act of adaptation consistently helps to promote and popularize the work, the author, and  ultimately the culture in focus as in the prose being studied. The paper  recommended that more attention should be given to the act of adaptation of literary works from poetry and prose to drama. The excise helped to  foreground the thematic thrust of the original text, while expanding the target audience. This particular adaptation further projected the Igbo  culture depicted in the prose which forms the corpus of this research.Key Words: Adaptation, playwriting, production elements, betrayal, performance