Statistics in Climate Variability, Dry Spells, and Implications for Local Livelihoods in Semiarid Regions of Tanzania: The Way Forward

This research article published by Springer Nature Switzerland AG., 2016The Dodoma municipality, a semiarid region of Tanzania, is characterized by limited rains, lack of surface water sources, and a high frequency of extreme climate events, particularly droughts and floods. These disadvantaged settings make it vital to study long-term climate trends for signals and patterns of shifting climate regimes for integrity of local livelihood support systems, especially agriculture, recharge, and pasture developments. The area has fairly long climate records, some of which extend to about 100 years. This chapter presents detailed analysis of six climate parameters, namely, rainfall (R), atmospheric relative humidity (ARH), temperature (T), sunshine (S), radiation (RD), wind speed (WS), and evaporation (ET) records from three meteorological stations, namely, Hombolo Agrovet (HMS), Dodoma (DMS), and Makutupora (MMS). The parameters above were statistically and graphically analyzed in four time scales, namely, monthly, seasonal, annual, and time series. The results showed the area is characterized by slight spatial variability in R intensity and T magnitudes with HMS having higher T and rains than DMS and MMS. Further there are clear decreasing trends in ARH and R, while T, S, WS, ET, and RD parameters showed characteristic increasing trends. Thus, except for extreme rain events, particularly El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), which are characterized by abnormally increased R magnitudes, R intensity has generally decreased in which over the past 91 years, there has been a net R decrease of 54 mm out of annual rains of only about 550 mm/year. Compared to annual time step, however, monthly step reveals more silent features like shortening of the growing seasons. Similarly, the frequency and severity of drought episodes are increasing, all of which adversely impact agriculture, pasture development, and recharge. Similarly, disappearance of R in some months, shifting seasonality, and general declining R intensities and magnitudes are clearly observed. May rains have largely disappeared, while in January, February, March, and April rains have decreased and hence shortening the length of growing season. On the other hand, clear warming trends and declining ARH were also observed. Yet the area is marked by cyclic wetting and drying events where in recent years, drying cycles have been prolonged. However, there is more variability in the mean minimum temperature (MMT) than in mean maximum temperatures (MMMT) in all stations. Between 1961 and 2012, there has been a net 1.13 and 0.778 °C increases in annual MMT and MMMT in DMS, respectively. Like for R trends, silent features are more evident under monthly T data than annual time steps where it is clear that June had the highest increase in MMT (1.54 °C), while April had the least (only 0.662 °C). However, both trends have the potential of affecting major livelihood support systems particularly agriculture and pasture development, but also local groundwater recharge that is vital for the local economy. The study area therefore offers a rare opportunity to understand and manage changing climate regimes including on extent of dry spells and longevity of growing seasons. The changing climate trends consequently call for significant adaptation and mitigation strategies so that local activities adjust to the current climate regimes particularly on onset and end of rainfall seasons and recharge fluxes

Nutrients’ distribution and their impact on Pangani River Basin’s ecosystem – Tanzania

Research Articles published by Taylor & Francis GroupSurface and groundwater from Pangani River Basin (PRB) were sampled in dry and wet seasons, analysed for dissolved organic and inorganic nutrients (N, P, Si and Urea). There was spatial and seasonal nutrients’ variability, with enrichment of dissolved inorganic fractions accumulated from natural and anthropogenic sources. Silicates increased in dry season, whereas nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and urea increased in wet season; except for phosphate, other nutrients increased from upstream to the river mouth. High rate of chemical weathering possibly due to tropical climate and volcanic rocks has caused PRB to have higher concentration of silicates than average freshwater African Rivers. Contribution of PRB to the coast of Indian Ocean was 2.6, 39.0, 45.2, 67.4 and 5444.8 (mol/km2/yr) for nitrite, phosphate, ammonium, nitrate and silicates, respectively, which were lower than most of the tropical rivers in the world. Levels of nitrate and phosphate for most of the stations were higher than recommended levels for aquatic ecosystem health. Furthermore, observed hypoxia condition in some stations threatens aquatic life. This study recommends the efficient use of fertilizers to reduce nutrients’ uptake into the lakes and rivers so as to meet the recommended level for aquatic and human health

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope composition of organic matter in sediments of the Oman Margin

Stable isotopic compositions of carbon and nitrogen and organic carbon content of sediments ranging from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene-Holocene in age from the Oman Margin (ODP Sites 724 and 725) are reported. In general, the organic carbon content is greater than 2% at Site 724. Prior to the Pleistocene-Holocene at this site, sediments with higher content of organic matter were deposited owing to favorable preservation conditions and/or higher productivity. In the Pleistocene, lower amounts of organic matter have been preserved; this material generally has more enriched nitrogen isotopic compositions. This may indicate intensification of the Oxygen Minimum Zone and denitrification with the onset of the Pleistocene. A correlation of carbon isotope content of these sediments with oxygen isotope stages at Site 724 indicates an enrichment in 13C during glacial events. Based on the stable isotope evidence of both carbon and nitrogen, there does not appear to be major input of terrigenous-derived allochthonous material in this marine environment. The timing and extent of monsoon winds on the productivity of this region are not evident, but require further studies for collaborative interpretation of small-scale features in the isotopic and carbon content of this environment

Fault-magma interactions during early continental rifting: Seismicity of the Magadi-Natron-Manyara basins, Africa

International audienceAlthough magmatism may occur during the earliest stages of continental rifting, its role in strain accommodation remains weakly constrained by largely 2-D studies. We analyze seismicity data from a 13 month, 39-station broadband seismic array to determine the role of magma intrusion on state-of-stress and strain localization, and their along-strike variations. Precise earthquake locations using cluster analyses and a new 3-D velocity model reveal lower crustal earthquakes beneath the central basins and along projections of steep border faults that degas CO2. Seismicity forms several disks interpreted as sills at 6-10 km below a monogenetic cone field. The sills overlie a lower crustal magma chamber that may feed eruptions at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. After determining a new ML scaling relation, we determine a b-value of 0.87±0.03. Focal mechanisms for 65 earthquakes, and 13 from a catalogue prior to our array reveal an along-axis stress rotation of ∼60° in the magmatically active zone. New and prior mechanisms show predominantly normal slip along steep nodal planes, with extension directions ∼N90°E north and south of an active volcanic chain consistent with geodetic data, and ∼N150°E in the volcanic chain. The stress rotation facilitates strain transfer from border fault systems, the locus of early-stage deformation, to the zone of magma intrusion in the central rift. Our seismic, structural, and geochemistry results indicate that frequent lower crustal earthquakes are promoted by elevated pore pressures from volatile degassing along border faults, and hydraulic fracture around the margins of magma bodies. Results indicate that earthquakes are largely driven by stress state around inflating magma bodies

Drivers and trajectories of land cover change in East Africa : human and environmental interactions from 6000 years ago to present

East African landscapes today are the result of the cumulative effects of climate and land-use change over millennial timescales. In this review, we compile archaeological and palaeoenvironmental data from East Africa to document land-cover change, and environmental, subsistence and land-use transitions, over the past 6000 years. Throughout East Africa there have been a series of relatively rapid and high-magnitude environmental shifts characterised by changing hydrological budgets during the mid- to late Holocene. For example, pronounced environmental shifts that manifested as a marked change in the rainfall amount or seasonality and subsequent hydrological budget throughout East Africa occurred around 4000, 800 and 300 radiocarbon years before present (yr BP). The past 6000 years have also seen numerous shifts in human interactions with East African ecologies. From the mid-Holocene, land use has both diversified and increased exponentially, this has been associated with the arrival of new subsistence systems, crops, migrants and technologies, all giving rise to a sequence of significant phases of land-cover change. The first large-scale human influences began to occur around 4000 yr BP, associated with the introduction of domesticated livestock and the expansion of pastoral communities. The first widespread and intensive forest clearances were associated with the arrival of iron-using early farming communities around 2500 yr BP, particularly in productive and easily-cleared mid-altitudinal areas. Extensive and pervasive land-cover change has been associated with population growth, immigration and movement of people. The expansion of trading routes between the interior and the coast, starting around 1300 years ago and intensifying in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries CE, was one such process. These caravan routes possibly acted as conduits for spreading New World crops such as maize (Zea mays), tobacco (Nicotiana spp.) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicum), although the processes and timings of their introductions remains poorly documented. The introduction of southeast Asian domesticates, especially banana (Musa spp.), rice (Oryza spp.), taro (Colocasia esculenta), and chicken (Gallus gallus), via transoceanic biological transfers around and across the Indian Ocean, from at least around 1300 yr BP, and potentially significantly earlier, also had profound social and ecological consequences across parts of the region. Through an interdisciplinary synthesis of information and metadatasets, we explore the different drivers and directions of changes in land-cover, and the associated environmental histories and interactions with various cultures, technologies, and subsistence strategies through time and across space in East Africa. This review suggests topics for targeted future research that focus on areas and/or time periods where our understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and land-cover change are most contentious and/or poorly resolved. The review also offers a perspective on how knowledge of regional land-use change can be used to inform and provide perspectives on contemporary issues such as climate and ecosystem change models, conservation strategies, and the achievement of nature-based solutions for development purposes