Unemployment, hysteresis and transition

We quantify the degree of persistence in unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. In part of the paper, we work with the concept of linear "Hysteresis" as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment. Since this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and non-linear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria: if it remains locked into a new level whenever a structural change occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria. JEL Classification: E24, C22, C23Hysteresis, Markov switching, Transition, Unemployment, Unit Root

In dubio pro CES - Supply estimation with mis-specified technical change

Capital-labor substitution and total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are essential features of growth and income distribution models. In the context of a Monte Carlo exercise embodying balanced and near balanced growth, we demonstrate that the estimation of the substitution elasticity can be substantially biased if the form of technical progress is misspecified. For some parameter values, when factor shares are relatively constant, there could be an inherent bias towards Cobb-Douglas. The implied estimates of TFP growth also yield substantially different results depending on the specification of technical progress. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution production function is then estimated within a “normalized” system approach for the US economy over 1960:1–2004:4. Results show that the estimated substitution elasticity tends to be significantly lower using a factor augmenting specification (well below one). We are able to reject Hicks-, Harrod- and Solow-neutral specifications in favor of general factor augmentation with a non-negligible capital-augmenting component. Finally, we draw some important lessons for production and supply-side estimation. JEL Classification: C15, C32, E23, O33, O51Balanced Growth, Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Factor Income share, Factor-Augmenting Technical Change, Technical Progress Neutrality

Identifying the elasticity of substitution with biased technical change

Despite being critical parameters in many economic fields, the received wisdom, in theoretical and empirical literatures, states that joint identification of the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and technical bias is infeasible. This paper challenges that pessimistic interpretation. Putting the new approach of "normalized" production functions at the heart of a Monte Carlo analysis we identify the conditions under which identification is feasible and robust. The key result is that the jointly modeling the production function and first-order conditions is superior to single-equation approaches in terms of robustly capturing production and technical parameters, especially when merged with "normalization". Our results will have fundamental implications for production-function estimation under non-neutral technical change, for understanding the empirical relevance of normalization and the variability underlying past empirical studies. JEL Classification: C22, E23, O30, 051Constant Elasticity of Substitution, Factor Income share, Factor-Augmenting Technical Change, Identification, Monte Carlo, Normalization

Frequency-dependent and correlational selection pressures have conflicting consequences for assortative mating in a color-polymorphic lizard, Uta stansburiana

Acknowledgments We would like to thank the numerous undergraduate researchers involved with this project for their invaluable assistance in lizard rearing and data collection. We also thank D. Haisten, A. Runemark, Y. Takahashi, and M. Verzijden for insightful comments on the manuscript. This project was funded by National Science Foundation DEBOS-15973 to A.G.M. and B.R.S.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Imminence in Refugee and Human Rights Law: A Misplaced Notion for International Protection

This article is the first scholarly output of a major research project examining the notion of imminence in the law on international protection. It is the first piece of scholarship to identify an emerging trend, namely the introduction of imminence—whether invoked implicitly or explicitly—as a potential barrier to refugee status or complementary protection. The article analyses the jurisprudence of relevant international bodies and courts and critiques the validity of this notion as a tool for assessing States’ protection obligations

A well-founded fear of being persecuted ... but when?

It is well established that the ‘well-founded fear’ test in refugee law requires a prospective assessment of potential future harm. Yet, the requisite timeframe involved in this test is rarely examined. Analysis of jurisprudence across a wide range of jurisdictions reveals that Australian courts have been unusually cognisant of the question of timing of harm. Indeed, they have been particularly insistent that a flexible and longer-range assessment is appropriate, encapsulated by the ‘reasonably foreseeable future’ test. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the principles set out by Australian courts, and identifies particularly challenging contexts in which timing has played an important role. It also assesses the extent to which decision-makers at the tribunal level adhere to the flexible approach formulated by the judiciary. It is hoped that our analysis of Australian jurisprudence may prove helpful in other jurisdictions in which the issue of timing of harm is equally pertinent but far less developed

Evaluation of a rehabilitation support service after acute stroke: Feasibility and patient/carer benefit

Background: Stroke survivors returning home after discharge from hospital and their carers require support to meet their rehabilitation needs (independence in Activities of Daily Living, exercise, psychosocial support). Voluntary or charitable care providers may be able to address some of these needs. Objective: To explore the feasibility of delivering and evaluating enhanced support to stroke survivors and their carers, with a Rehabilitation Support Worker (RSW). Methods: 16 consecutive stroke survivors and their carers were included. All participants received usual hospital care. Seven of these patients and their carers were also allocated an RSW from a charitable care provider. The RSW accompanied therapy training sessions with the patient, carer and therapist in hospital. On discharge, the RSW visited the patient and carer at home over the initial 6 week post-discharge period to support them in practising rehabilitation skills. Patient function (Barthel Index) and patient/carer confidence were independently assessed at discharge (Week 0). The above assessments and patient/carer mood (GHQ-12) and Carer Giver Strain were also assessed at Weeks 1, 6 and 12. RSWs were interviewed for their views about the service. Results: Participants’ functional ability at Week 1 post-discharge was significantly higher in the RSW group. At 6 and 12 weeks post-discharge, functional ability was not significantly different between groups. Carers in the intervention group were less confident at all time points, however, this was not significant. There was no significant effect on carer strain or well-being. Interviews with RSWs highlighted areas of their training that could be enhanced and the need for greater clarity as to their role. Conclusions: The results showed that a definitive trial of rehabilitation support is feasible. A number of obstacles however would need to be overcome including: difficulty in identifying suitable patients, clarity of the RSW role, and appropriate training content

The Electrocardiograph in Thyrotoxicosis

Abstract Not Provided