Anthropogenic impacts on mosquito populations in North America over the past century.

The recent emergence and spread of vector-borne viruses including Zika, chikungunya and dengue has raised concerns that climate change may cause mosquito vectors of these diseases to expand into more temperate regions. However, the long-term impact of other anthropogenic factors on mosquito abundance and distributions is less studied. Here, we show that anthropogenic chemical use (DDT; dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and increasing urbanization were the strongest drivers of changes in mosquito populations over the last eight decades in areas on both coasts of North America. Mosquito populations have increased as much as tenfold, and mosquito communities have become two- to fourfold richer over the last five decades. These increases are correlated with the decay in residual environmental DDT concentrations and growing human populations, but not with temperature. These results illustrate the far-reaching impacts of multiple anthropogenic disturbances on animal communities and suggest that interactions between land use and chemical use may have unforeseen consequences on ecosystems

Geographic variation in the response of Culex pipiens life history traits to temperature

BackgroundClimate change is predicted to alter the transmission of many vector-borne pathogens. The quantitative impact of climate change is usually estimated by measuring the temperature-performance relationships for a single population of vectors, and then mapping this relationship across a range of temperatures or locations. However, life history traits of different populations often differ significantly. Specifically, performance across a range of temperatures is likely to vary due to local adaptation to temperature and other factors. This variation can cause spatial variation in pathogen transmission and will influence the impact of climate change on the transmission of vector-borne pathogens.MethodsWe quantified variation in life history traits for four populations of Culex pipiens (Linnaeus) mosquitoes. The populations were distributed along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients in the eastern United States that spanned ~3 °C in mean summer temperature, which is similar to the magnitude of global warming expected in the next 3-5 decades. We measured larval and adult survival, development rate, and biting rate at six temperatures between 16 and 35 °C, in a common garden experiment.ResultsTemperature had strong and consistent non-linear effects on all four life history traits for all four populations. Adult female development time decreased monotonically with increasing temperature, with the largest decrease at cold temperatures. Daily juvenile and adult female survival also decreased with increasing temperature, but the largest decrease occurred at higher temperatures. There was significant among-population variation in the thermal response curves for the four life history traits across the four populations, with larval survival, adult survival, and development rate varying up to 45, 79, and 84 % among populations, respectively. However, variation was not correlated with local temperatures and thus did not support the local thermal adaptation hypothesis.ConclusionThese results suggest that the impact of climate change on vector-borne disease will be more variable than previous predictions, and our data provide an estimate of this uncertainty. In addition, the variation among populations that we observed will shape the response of vectors to changing climates

Bushmeat Hunting, Deforestation, and Prediction of Zoonotic Disease

Integrating virology, ecology, and other disciplines enhances prediction of new emerging zoonoses

Seasonal resource pulses and the foraging depth of a Southern Ocean top predator

Seasonal resource pulses can have enormous impacts on species interactions. In marine ecosystems, air-breathing predators often drive their prey to deeper waters. However, it is unclear how ephemeral resource pulses such as near-surface phytoplankton blooms alter the vertical trade-off between predation avoidance and resource availability in consumers, and how these changes cascade to the diving behaviour of top predators. We integrated data on Weddell seal diving behaviour, diet stable isotopes, feeding success and mass gain to examine shifts in vertical foraging throughout ice break-out and the resulting phytoplankton bloom each year. We also tested hypotheses about the likely location of phytoplankton bloom origination (advected or produced in situ where seals foraged) based on sea ice break-out phenology and advection rates from several locations within 150 km of the seal colony. In early summer, seals foraged at deeper depths resulting in lower feeding rates and mass gain. As sea ice extent decreased throughout the summer, seals foraged at shallower depths and benefited from more efficient energy intake. Changes in diving depth were not due to seasonal shifts in seal diets or horizontal space use and instead may reflect a change in the vertical distribution of prey. Correspondence between the timing of seal shallowing and the resource pulse was variable from year to year and could not be readily explained by our existing understanding of the ocean and ice dynamics. Phytoplankton advection occurred faster than ice break-out, and seal dive shallowing occurred substantially earlier than local break-out. While there remains much to be learned about the marine ecosystem, it appears that an increase in prey abundance and accessibility via shallower distributions during the resource pulse could synchronize life-history phenology across trophic levels in this high-latitude ecosystem

Land Use and West Nile Virus Seroprevalence in Wild Mammals

We examined West Nile virus (WNV) seroprevalence in wild mammals along a forest-to-urban gradient in the US mid-Atlantic region. WNV antibody prevalence increased with age, urbanization, and date of capture for juveniles and varied significantly between species. These findings suggest several requirements for using mammals as indicators of transmission

Threshold levels of generalist predation determine consumer response to resource pulses

Many ecological systems are characterized by brief periods of increased resource availability called resource pulses. Empirical studies suggest that some populations of primary consumers grow rapidly in response to resource pulses, but others instead remain at low abundance despite increases in resource availability. Previous theory suggests that the lack of increase in primary consumers might be due to predators, which can respond to increased prey density both numerically, by increasing their own population, and functionally, by killing prey at a faster rate. The complexity of potential population responses to resource pulses can be assessed with simulations, but analytical conditions determining when one observes qualitatively distinct dynamics have yet to be identified. Here we use a graphical method based on a bifurcation diagram to derive the conditions leading to qualitatively distinct steady state and transient prey population dynamics as levels of predation (abundance and diversity) vary. When predation thresholds are crossed, consumer populations respond numerically to increases in their resources and provide a secondary resource pulse to their predators and parasites. These community dynamics have broad implications for the impact of changing predator communities on insect and rodent population outbreaks, which are economically and epidemiologically important.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the Authors and Nordic Society Oikos. It is published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. This article can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/oik.01487/abstract;jsessionid=075AC1893098BC7BF86AEFC9E64919BE.f04t0

Sociality, density-dependence and microclimates determine the persistence of populations uffereing from a novel fungal disease, white nose syndrome

Abstract Disease has caused striking declines in wildlife and threatens numerous species with extinction. Theory suggests that the ecology and density-dependence of transmission dynamics can determine the probability of disease-caused extinction, but few empirical studies have simultaneously examined multiple factors influencing disease impact. We show, in hibernating bats infected with Geomyces destructans, that impacts of disease on solitary species were lower in smaller populations, whereas in socially gregarious species declines were equally severe in populations spanning four orders of magnitude. However, as these gregarious species declined, we observed decreases in social group size that reduced the likelihood of extinction. In addition, disease impacts in these species increased with humidity and temperature such that the coldest and driest roosts provided initial refuge from disease. These results expand our theoretical framework and provide an empirical basis for determining which host species are likely to be driven extinct while management action is still possible

Experimental Infection of Eastern Gray Squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) with West Nile Virus

Abstract. Eastern gray squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) have shown high West Nile virus (WNV) seroprevalence, and WNV infection has been suggested as a cause of morbidity and mortality in this species. We experimentally infected nine eastern gray squirrels with WNV to determine the clinical effects of infection and to assess their potential role as amplifying hosts. We observed no morbidity or mortality attributable to WNV infection, but lesions were apparent in several organs. We detected mean viremias of 10 5.1 and 10 4.8 plaque-forming units (PFU)/mL on days 3 and 4 postinfection (DPI) and estimated that ∼2.1% of Culex pipiens feeding on squirrels during 1-5 DPI would become infectious. Thus, S. carolinensis are unlikely to be important amplifying hosts and may instead dampen the intensity of transmission in most host communities. The low viremias and lack of mortality observed in S. carolinensis suggest that they may be useful as sentinels of spillover from the enzootic amplification cycle

Using network theory to identify the causes of disease outbreaks of unknown origin.

The identification of undiagnosed disease outbreaks is critical for mobilizing efforts to prevent widespread transmission of novel virulent pathogens. Recent developments in online surveillance systems allow for the rapid communication of the earliest reports of emerging infectious diseases and tracking of their spread. The efficacy of these programs, however, is inhibited by the anecdotal nature of informal reporting and uncertainty of pathogen identity in the early stages of emergence. We developed theory to connect disease outbreaks of known aetiology in a network using an array of properties including symptoms, seasonality and case-fatality ratio. We tested the method with 125 reports of outbreaks of 10 known infectious diseases causing encephalitis in South Asia, and showed that different diseases frequently form distinct clusters within the networks. The approach correctly identified unknown disease outbreaks with an average sensitivity of 76 per cent and specificity of 88 per cent. Outbreaks of some diseases, such as Nipah virus encephalitis, were well identified (sensitivity = 100%, positive predictive values = 80%), whereas others (e.g. Chandipura encephalitis) were more difficult to distinguish. These results suggest that unknown outbreaks in resource-poor settings could be evaluated in real time, potentially leading to more rapid responses and reducing the risk of an outbreak becoming a pandemic

West Nile Virus Epidemics in North America Are Driven by Shifts in Mosquito Feeding Behavior

West Nile virus (WNV) has caused repeated large-scale human epidemics in North America since it was first detected in 1999 and is now the dominant vector-borne disease in this continent. Understanding the factors that determine the intensity of the spillover of this zoonotic pathogen from birds to humans (via mosquitoes) is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human epidemics. We integrated mosquito feeding behavior with data on the population dynamics and WNV epidemiology of mosquitoes, birds, and humans. We show that Culex pipiens, the dominant enzootic (bird-to-bird) and bridge (bird-to-human) vector of WNV in urbanized areas in the northeast and north-central United States, shifted its feeding preferences from birds to humans by 7-fold during late summer and early fall, coinciding with the dispersal of its preferred host (American robins, Turdus migratorius) and the rise in human WNV infections. We also show that feeding shifts in Cx. tarsalis amplify human WNV epidemics in Colorado and California and occur during periods of robin dispersal and migration. Our results provide a direct explanation for the timing and intensity of human WNV epidemics. Shifts in feeding from competent avian hosts early in an epidemic to incompetent humans after mosquito infection prevalences are high result in synergistic effects that greatly amplify the number of human infections of this and other pathogens. Our results underscore the dramatic effects of vector behavior in driving the transmission of zoonotic pathogens to humans