Robust Rescaling Methods for Integrated Water, Food, and Energy Security Management under Systemic Risks and Uncertainty

The aim of this presentation is to discuss robust, non-Bayesian, probabilistic, cross-entropy-based disaggregation (downscaling) techniques. Systems analysis of global change (including climate) processes requires new approaches to integrating and rescaling of models, data, and decision-making procedures between various scales. For example, in the analysis of water security issues, the hydrological models require inputs that are much finer than the resolution of, say, the economic or climatic models generating those inputs. In relation to food security, aggregate national or regional land-use projections derived with global economic land-use planning models give no insights into potentially critical heterogeneities of local trends. Many practical studies analyzing regional developments use cross-entropy minimization as an underlying principle for estimation of local processes. However, the traditional cross-entropy approach relies on a single prior distribution. In reality, we can identify a set of feasible priors. This is relevant, in particular, for land-cover data. Existing global land cover maps (GLC2000, MODIS2000, GLOBCOVER2000) differ in terms of spatially resolved estimates of land use, (e.g., crop, forest, and grass lands). We present novel general approach to achieving downscaling results that are robust with respect to a set of potential prior distributions reflecting non-Bayesian uncertainties, that is, data that are incomplete or not directly observable. The robust downscaling problem is formulated as a probabilistic inverse problem (from aggregate to local data) generally in the form of a non-convex, cross-entropy minimization model. The approach will be illustrated by sequential downscaling aggregate model projections of land-use changes using the Global Biosphere Management Model, with case studies from Africa, Brazil, China, and Ukraine. The approach is being used to harmonize alternative land-cover maps and to develop hybrid maps

Integrated Management of Land-use Systems under Systemic Risks and Food-(bio)energy-water-environmental Security Targets: A Stochastic Global Biosphere Management Model

Interdependencies among land-use systems resemble a complex network connected through demand–supply relations, and disruption of the network may catalyze systemic risks affecting food, energy, water, and environmental security (FEWES) worldwide. This paper describes the conceptual development, expansion, and practical application of a stochastic version of the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), a model that is used to assess competition for land use between agriculture, bioenergy, and forestry at regional and global scales. In the stochastic version of the model, systemic risks of various kinds are explicitly covered and can be analyzed and mitigated in all their interactions. While traditional deterministic scenario analysis produces sets of often contradictory outcomes, stochastic GLOBIOM explicitly derives robust decisions that leave the systems better off, independently of what scenario occurs. Stochastic GLOBIOM is formulated as a stochastic optimization model that is central for evaluating portfolios of robust interdependent decisions: ex ante strategic decisions (production allocation, storage capacities) and ex post adaptive (demand, trading, storage control) decisions. For example, the model is applied to the case of increased storage facilities, which can be viewed as catastrophe pools to buffer production shortfalls and fulfill regional and global FEWES requirements when extreme events occur. Expected shortfalls and storage capacities have a close relation with Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk risk measures. The Value of Stochastic Solutions is calculated to present the benefits of the stochastic over the deterministic model

RDF to Conceptual Graphs Translations

International audienceIn this paper we will discuss two different translations between RDF (Resource Description Format) and Conceptual Graphs (CGs). These translations will allow tools like Cogui and Cogitant to be able to import and export RDF(S) documents. The first translation is sound and complete from a reasoning view point but is not visual nor a representation in the spirit of Conceptual Graphs (CGs). The second translation has the advantage of being natural and fully exploiting the CG features, but, on the other hand it does not apply to the whole RDF(S). We aim this paper as a preliminary report of ongoing work looking in detail at different pro and the cons of each approach

Bioinformatics tools for the discovery of new lipopeptides with biocontrol applications

As conventional or chemical pesticides have negative impact on environment and health of both farmer and consumers, it becomes relevant to develop alternative solutions to limit their use. In this context, innovative strategies to accelerate the development of biocontrol agents are welcome. For a decade of years, it has been demonstrated that lipopeptides are very efficient weapons against fungi responsible for crop diseases. Lipopeptides are secondary metabolites, produced by many microorganisms including beneficial rhizobacteria. The lipopeptide biosynthetic pathways include nonribosomal peptide synthetases. These modular enzymatic complexes work as assembly lines to build the peptides step by step, leading to the production of original peptide compounds with specific features as the presence of non proteinogenic monomers and cyclic and branched structures. In this paper, Florine and Norine bioinformatics tools, especially dedicated to non-ribosomal synthetases and their products are presented. Their use is mainly focused on the discovery of lipopeptides produced by Bacillus or Pseudomonas because they seem to represent a versatile reservoir of active secondary metabolites with promising activities for applications in phytosanitary area. © 2018, Koninklijke Nederlandse Planteziektenkundige Vereniging.Peer reviewe

Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere's temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis

Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2 degrees C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle- income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest

Direct formulation of the supersonic acoustic intensity in space domain

International audienceThis paper proposes and examines a direct formulation in space domain of the so-called supersonic acoustic intensity. This quantity differs from the usual (active) intensity by excluding the circulating energy in the near-field of the source, providing a map of the acoustic energy that is radiated into the far field. To date, its calculation has been formulated in the wave number domain, filtering out the evanescent waves outside the radiation circle and reconstructing the acoustic field with only the propagating waves. In this study, the supersonic intensity is calculated directly in space domain by means of a two-dimensional convolution between the acoustic field and a spatial filter mask that corresponds to the space domain representation of the radiation circle. Therefore, the acoustic field that propagates effectively to the far field is calculated via direct filtering in space domain. This paper presents the theory, as well as a numerical example to illustrate some fundamental principles. An experimental study on planar radiators was conducted to verify the validity of the technique. The experimental results are presented, and serve to illustrate the usefulness of the analysis, its strengths and limitations

The Naukratis Project; Petrie, Greeks and Egyptians

This report outlines the general aspects of the Naukratis Project of the British Museum both in reconstructing the body of material excavated between 1884 and 1903 at the Nile delta site, and in renewed fieldwork. In particular it describes the material studied by the present author, including that housed in UCL

Lipopeptide biodiversity in antifungal Bacillus strains isolated from Algeria

Several Bacillus strains have been well studied for their ability to control soil-borne plant diseases. This property is linked to the production of several families of lipopeptides. Depending of their structure, these compounds show antifungal and/or plant systemic resistance inducing activities. In this work, the biodiversity of lipopeptides produced by different antifungal Bacillus strains isolated from seeds, rhizospheric, and non-rhizospheric soils in Algeria was analyzed. Sixteen active strains were characterized by PCR for their content in genes involved in lipopeptide biosynthesis and by MALDI-ToF for their lipopeptide production, revealing a high biodiversity of products. The difficulty to detect kurstakin genes led us to design two new sets of specific primers. An interesting potential of antifungal activity and the synthesis of two forms of fengycins differing in the eighth amino acid (Gln/Glu) were found from the strain 8. Investigation of its genome led to the finding of an adenylation domain of the fengycin synthetase predicted to activate the glutamate residue instead of the glutamine one. According to the comparison of both the results of MALDI-ToF-MS and genome analysis, it was concluded that this adenylation domain could activate both residues at the same time. This study highlighted that the richness of the Algerian ecosystems in Bacillus strains is able to produce: surfactin, pumilacidin, lichenysin, kurstakin, and different types of fengycins. © 2018 Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Natur

Paraburkholderia phytofirmans PsJN-Plants Interaction: From Perception to the Induced Mechanisms

The use of plant-associated bacteria has received many scientific and economic attention as an effective and alternative method to reduce the chemical pesticides use in agriculture. The genus Burkholderia includes at least 90 species including pathogenic strains, plant pathogens, as well as plant beneficial species as those related to Paraburkholderia, which has been reported to be associated with plants and exerts a positive effect on plant growth and fitness. Paraburkholderia phytofirmans PsJN, a beneficial endophyte able to colonize a wide range of plants, is an established model for plant-associated endophytic bacteria. Indeed, in addition to its plant growth promoting ability, it can also induce plant resistance against biotic as well as abiotic stresses. Here, we summarized an inventory of knowledge on PsJN-plant interaction, from the perception to the resistance mechanisms induced in the plant by a way of the atypical colonization mode of this endophyte. We also have carried out an extensive genome analysis to identify all gene clusters which contribute to the adaptive mechanisms under different environments and partly explaining the high ecological competence of P. phytofirmans PsJN