A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume

This paper seeks to develop a structural model that lets data on asset returns and trading volume speak to whether volatility autocorrelation comes from the fundamental that the trading process is pricing or, is caused by the trading process itself. Returns and volume data argue, in the context of our model, that persistent volatility is caused by traders experimenting with different beliefs based upon past profit experience and their estimates of future profit experience. A major theme of our paper is to introduce adaptive agents in the spirit of Sargent (1993) but have them adapt their strategies on a time scale that is slower than the time scale on which the trading process takes place. This will lead to positive autocorrelation in volatility and volume on the time scale of the trading process which generates returns and volume data. Positive autocorrelation of volatility and volume is caused by persistence of strategy patterns that are associated with high volatility and high volume. Thee following features seen in the data: (i) The autocorrelation function of a measure of volatility such as squared returns or absolute value of returns is positive with a slowly decaying tail. (ii) The autocorrelation function of a measure of trading activity such as volume or turnover is positive with a slowly decaying tail. (iii) The cross correlation function of a measure of volatility such as squared returns is about zero for squared returns with past and future volumes and is positive for squared returns with current volumes. (iv) Abrupt changes in prices and returns occur which are hard to attach to 'news.' The last feature is obtained by a version of the model where the Law of Large Numbers fails in the large economy limit.

Protein Payments Now?

Early in 1967 a dye technique for measuring the amount of protein in fluid milk was granted official, first action approval by the Association of Analytical Chemists. Since the fluid milk conversion factor also gives excellent results in tests on finished products, manufacturers can now account for all protein purchased. The dye technique thus removes the main technical barriers to widespread adoption of systems of direct protein payments to dairy farmers

The domestic politics of corporate accountability legislation: struggles over the 2015 UK Modern Slavery Act

Over the last decade, the norm of corporate accountability for labour standards in global supply chains has become increasingly prominent within the transnational governance arena. As global governance initiatives to spur due diligence for labour standards and combat exploitation in global supply chains— especially its most severe forms frequently described as modern slavery— have proliferated, societal coalitions have pressured states to pass domestic legislation to the same effect. In this paper, we examine the regulatory processes that spurred the passage of one piece of anti-slavery legislation, the United Kingdom’s 2015 Modern Slavery Act. Our findings corroborate a number of established expectations regarding business opposition towards new legislation to raise public labour standards, but also provide a clearer picture of the mechanisms through which industry actors impact policymaking processes. Paradoxically, such mechanisms include business actors’ championing of weak regulatory initiatives, CSR activity, and partnering with civil society organizations. Understanding industry actors’ use of these strategies improves our understanding of how transnational norms of corporate accountability and anti-slavery are being contested and shaped at domestic scales

Scaling Analysis on Indian Foreign Exchange Market

In this paper we investigate the scaling behavior of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is found to exhibit a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies do not show persistency or antipersistency and follow Gaussian distribution.Comment: Revised Final Version. In Press Physica

Deglaciation of Penobscot Bay, Maine, USA

The Pond Ridge and Pineo Ridge moraines in downeast Maine likely formed at ~16.1 and ~15.7 ka respectively, during cold episodes recorded by δ18O dips in the GRIP ice core. The elapsed time between these ages is broadly consistent with retreat rates recorded by intervening De Geer moraines, which are readily visible on LiDAR imagery and are believed to be approximately annual. North-northwestward from the southwesterly extension of the Pond Ridge moraine there are three pairs of prominent moraines that are relatively continuous across the study area and could be reliably extrapolated across intervening water bodies. Retreat rates recorded by De Geer moraines suggest that these pairs formed at 15.7-15.8 ka, 15.5-15.6 ka, and ~15.5 ka. Although retreat appears to have occurred slightly faster across Penobscot Bay, a significant calving bay does not seem to have developed there. Instead, the ice margin remained relatively straight, retreating to the north-northwest. De Geer moraines become more widely spaced northward and vanish after ~15.5 ka when the ice margin was north of the head of Penobscot Bay and of Pineo Ridge. This likely reflects higher retreat rates during the initial phases of the Bølling warm period. Just south of Pineo Ridge there were two ice lobes; one retreated to the north and one to the northwest. The latter retreated more rapidly, while the former experienced numerous minor readvances and stillstands until finally pausing at the location of Pineo Ridge. A stillstand of this lobe then resulted in deposition of the Pineo Ridge moraine complex

Governance gaps in eradicating forced labor: from global to domestic supply chains

A growing body of scholarship analyzes the emergence and resilience of forced labor in developing countries within global value chains (GVCs). However, little is known about how forced labor arises within domestic supply chains concentrated within national borders, producing products for domestic consumption. We conduct one of the first studies of forced labor in domestic supply chains, through a cross-industry comparison of the regulatory gaps surrounding forced labor in the United Kingdom. We find that understanding the dynamics of forced labor in domestic supply chains requires us to conceptually modify the GVC framework to understand similarities and differences across these contexts. We conclude that addressing the governance gaps that surround forced labor will require scholars and policymakers to carefully refine their thinking about how we might design operative governance that effectively engages with local variation

Modern slavery in business: The sad and sorry state of a non-field

“Modern slavery,” a term used to describe severe forms of labor exploitation, is beginning to spark growing interest within business and society research. As a novel phenomenon, it offers potential for innovative theoretical and empirical pathways to a range of business and management research questions. And yet, development into what we might call a “field” of modern slavery research in business and management remains significantly, and disappointingly, underdeveloped. To explore this, we elaborate on the developments to date, the potential drawbacks, and the possible future deviations that might evolve within six subdisciplinary areas of business and management. We also examine the value that nonmanagement disciplines can bring to research on modern slavery and business, examining the connections, critiques, and catalysts evident in research from political science, law, and history. These, we suggest, offer significant potential for building toward a more substantial subfield of research

The Sooner, the Better? Couples\u27 First Financial Discussion, Relationship Quality, and Financial Conflict in Emerging Adulthood

In couple relationships, discussing finances is often considered taboo. Specifically, emerging adult couples experience several unique financial challenges that may contribute to poorer financial communication and pose relational risks. Utilizing structural equation modeling with a sample of 1,950 U.S. emerging adults, the current study tests associations between the time of a couple’s first financial discussion, financial communication, relationship quality, and financial conflict. Results indicate that initiating financial discussion earlier in a romantic relationship may benefit relationship quality—through financial communication. However, having an earlier first financial discussion as a couple was also positively associated with financial conflict. Financial therapists might consider teaching emerging adult couples to have a first financial discussion earlier along with strategies to overcome financial conflict. Additionally, financial therapists may consider assessing when emerging adult couples first discussed finances in their relationship. Overall, our findings suggest the sooner an emerging adult couple discusses finances, the better

Health-state valuations for pertussis: methods for valuing short-term health states

BACKGROUND: The incidence of reported adolescent and adult pertussis continues to rise in the United States. Acellular pertussis vaccines for adolescents and adults have been developed and may be available soon for use in the U.S. Our objectives were: (1) to describe patient valuations of pertussis disease and vaccination; and (2) to compare valuations for short-term and long-term health states associated with pertussis. METHODS: We conducted telephone surveys with 515 adult patients and parents of adolescent patients with pertussis in Massachusetts to determine valuations of pertussis-related health states for disease and vaccination using time trade-off (TTO) and contingent valuation (CV) techniques. Respondents were randomized to complete either a short-term or long-term TTO exercise. Discrimination between health states for each valuation technique was assessed using Tukey's method, and valuations for short-term vs. long-term health states were compared using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. RESULTS: Three hundred three (59%) and 309 (60%) respondents completed and understood the TTO and CV exercises, respectively. Overall, respondents gave lower valuations (lower TTO and higher CV values) to avoid a given state for adolescent/adult disease compared to vaccine adverse events. Infant complications due to pertussis were considered worse than adolescent/adult disease, regardless of the method of valuation. The short-term TTO resulted in lower mean valuations and larger mean differences between health states than the long-term TTO exercise. CONCLUSION: Pertussis was considered worse than adverse events due to vaccination. Short-term health-state valuation is better able to discriminate among health states, which is useful for cost-utility analysis