A Risk-Based Methodology and Tool Combining Threat Analysis and Power System Security Assessment

A thorough investigation of power system security requires the analysis of the vulnerabilities to natural and man-related threats which potentially trigger multiple contingencies. In particular, extreme weather events are becoming more and more frequent due to climate changes and often cause large load disruptions on the system, thus the support for security enhancement gets tricky. Exploiting data coming from forecasting systems in a security assessment environment can help assess the risk of operating power systems subject to the disturbances provoked by the weather event itself. In this context, the paper proposes a security assessment methodology, based on an updated definition of risk suitable for power system risk evaluations. Big data analytics can be useful to get an accurate model for weather-related threats. The relevant software (SW) platform integrates the security assessment methodology with prediction systems which provide short term forecasts of the threats affecting the system. The application results on a real wet snow threat scenario in the Italian High Voltage grid demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security approaches, by complementing the conventional "N - 1" security criterion and exploiting big data to link the security assessment phase to the analysis of incumbent threat

high resolution study of epigenetic processes new insights into methylation and demethylation

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Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

: The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990)

Modeling the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on mobility and NO2 concentration in the Lombardy region

Recent observation and modeling-based studies have shown how air quality has been positively affected by the containment measures enforced due to the COVID-19 outbreak. This work aims to analyze Lombardy’s NO2 atmospheric concentration during the spring lockdown. The region of Lombardy is known for having the largest number of residents in Italy and high levels of pollution. It is also the region where the first European confinement measures were imposed by the Italian government. The modeling suite composed of CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) provides the setting to compare the atmospheric NO2 concentration from mid-February to the end of March with a business as usual situation. The main interest in this work is to investigate the response of NO2 atmospheric concentration to increasingly reduced road traffic. We can simulate, for the first time, a real circumstance of progressively reduced mobility, as well as validating it with measured air quality data. Focusing on the city of Milan, we found that the decrease in NO2 concentration reflects progressively reduced traffic contraction. In the case of a large traffic abatement (71%), the concentration level is reduced by one third. We also find that industrial activities have a relevant impact on NO2 atmospheric concentration, especially in the provinces of Brescia and Bergamo. This study provides an overview of how incisive policies must be implemented to achieve the set environmental targets and protect human health

Post-operative all-cause mortality in elderly patients undergoing abdominal emergency surgery: Role of charlson comorbidity index

(1) Background: The Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score has been shown to predict 10-year all-cause mortality, but its validity is a matter of debate in surgical patients. We wanted to evaluate CCI on predicting all-cause mortality in elderly patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery (EAS); (2) Methods: This retrospective single center study included all patients aged 65 years or older consecutively admitted from January 2017 to December 2019, who underwent EAS and were discharged alive. CCI was calculated by using of the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Our outcome was all-cause death recorded during the 20.8 ± 8.8 month follow-up; (3) Results: We evaluated 197 patients aged 78.4 ± 7.2 years of whom 47 (23.8%) died. Mortality was higher in patients who underwent open abdominal surgery than in those treated with laparoscopic procedure (74% vs. 26%, p < 0.001), and in those who needed colon, small bowel, and gastric surgery. Mean CCI was 4.98 ± 2.2, and in subjects with CCI ≥ 4 survival was lower. Cox regression analysis showed that CCI (HR 1.132, 95% CI 1.009–1.270, p = 0.035), and open surgery (HR 10.298, 95%CI 1.409–75.285, p = 0.022) were associated with all-cause death independently from age and sex; (4) Conclusions: Calculation of CCI, could help surgeons in the preoperative stratification of risk of death after discharge in subjects aged ≥65 years who need EAS. CCI ≥ 4, increases the risk of all-causes mortality independently from age

Empiric “Three-in-One” Bismuth Quadruple Therapy for Second-Line Helicobacter pylori Eradication: An Intervention Study in Southern Italy

The eradication of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) may be difficult due to antibiotic resistance. Indeed, after one failure, a second-line therapy is needed and a bismuth containing quadruple therapy (BQT) with a three-in-one capsule formulation is becoming very popular. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate effectiveness and safety of BQT as a second-line therapy. We recruited consecutive patients with one therapy failure. For ten days patients received the three-in-one BQT Pylera® therapy, in combination with a proton-pump inhibitor (PPI), decided at the choice of the investigator, at full dose bid. The eradication rate was calculated by intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP)analyses and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Seventy-three patients were recruited, 41 females and 32 males (mean age 53.0±13.1 years). Fifty-five patients failed triple therapy with amoxicillin and clarithromycin and the remaining 18 received sequential therapy. Seventy-two patients consumed at least 90% of the capsules, while only one did not complete the therapy due to adverse events (nausea and diarrhea). By ITT analysis, BQT was successful in 62 subjects (eradication rate 84.9%, 95%CI 76.7–93.1%). By PP analysis, the eradication rate was 86.1% (95%CI 78.1–94.1%).Adverse events were observed in 14 subjects (20.5%).In conclusion, our report confirmed that BQT is effective as an empiric second-line regimen

Familial intestinal polyposis and device assisted enteroscopy: where do we stand?

Introduction: Hereditary polyposis syndromes are a group of inherited disorders associated with a high risk of developing colorectal cancer. The best known ones are familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), Peutz-Jeghers (PJS), juvenile polyposis and Cowden syndromes, as well as conditions predisposing to cancer, such as Lynch syndrome. Some of them are characterized by an increased risk of small bowel polyps occurrence. Areas covered: Literature search in PubMed was performed in November 2022 and a narrative review was carried out. Since performing small bowel polypectomy is important in such patients, device assisted enteroscopy (DAE) is the key for this procedure. A screening strategy for small bowel polyps is recommended only for PJS. Guidelines endorse either magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or videocapsule endoscopy (VCE) every 1–3 years, according to the phenotype of the disease. Enteroscopy should be considered for therapeutic purpose in patients with a positive VCE or MRI. DAE has a central role in the resection of polyps larger than mm or causing symptoms of subocclusion or intussusception. Both single (SBE) and double balloon enteroscopy (DBE) are indicated and able to resect polyps up to 6–10 cm. American guidelines have restricted the indications to small bowel enteroscopy only to FAP patients with grade IV Spiegelman. Expert opinion: Only some groups of patients (PJS, FAP with demonstrated small bowel polyp burden) may benefit from DAE

Impact of Covid-19 on surgical activities and personnel: lessons for the future

Covid-19 pandemic has impacted professional, economic and social activities. In the surgical field, it has brought changes to operating activities, the organization of workforces, the protection measures for patients and personnel against possible intraoperative transmissions as well as training young surgeons. This study intends to assess the extent of this impact in our institution

The ChoCO-W prospective observational global study: Does COVID-19 increase gangrenous cholecystitis?

Background: The incidence of the highly morbid and potentially lethal gangrenous cholecystitis was reportedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the ChoCO-W study was to compare the clinical findings and outcomes of acute cholecystitis in patients who had COVID-19 disease with those who did not. Methods: Data were prospectively collected over 6 months (October 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021) with 1-month follow-up. In October 2020, Delta variant of SARS CoV-2 was isolated for the first time. Demographic and clinical data were analyzed and reported according to the STROBE guidelines. Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients who had COVID-19 were compared with those who did not. Results: A total of 2893 patients, from 42 countries, 218 centers, involved, with a median age of 61.3 (SD: 17.39) years were prospectively enrolled in this study; 1481 (51%) patients were males. One hundred and eighty (6.9%) patients were COVID-19 positive, while 2412 (93.1%) were negative. Concomitant preexisting diseases including cardiovascular diseases (p < 0.0001), diabetes (p < 0.0001), and severe chronic obstructive airway disease (p = 0.005) were significantly more frequent in the COVID-19 group. Markers of sepsis severity including ARDS (p < 0.0001), PIPAS score (p < 0.0001), WSES sepsis score (p < 0.0001), qSOFA (p < 0.0001), and Tokyo classification of severity of acute cholecystitis (p < 0.0001) were significantly higher in the COVID-19 group. The COVID-19 group had significantly higher postoperative complications (32.2% compared with 11.7%, p < 0.0001), longer mean hospital stay (13.21 compared with 6.51 days, p < 0.0001), and mortality rate (13.4% compared with 1.7%, p < 0.0001). The incidence of gangrenous cholecystitis was doubled in the COVID-19 group (40.7% compared with 22.3%). The mean wall thickness of the gallbladder was significantly higher in the COVID-19 group [6.32 (SD: 2.44) mm compared with 5.4 (SD: 3.45) mm; p < 0.0001]. Conclusions: The incidence of gangrenous cholecystitis is higher in COVID patients compared with non-COVID patients admitted to the emergency department with acute cholecystitis. Gangrenous cholecystitis in COVID patients is associated with high-grade Clavien-Dindo postoperative complications, longer hospital stay and higher mortality rate. The open cholecystectomy rate is higher in COVID compared with non -COVID patients. It is recommended to delay the surgical treatment in COVID patients, when it is possible, to decrease morbidity and mortality rates. COVID-19 infection and gangrenous cholecystistis are not absolute contraindications to perform laparoscopic cholecystectomy, in a case by case evaluation, in expert hands. Graphical abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.