Metrics of progress in the understanding and management of threats to Australian birds

Although evidence‐based approaches have become commonplace for determining the success of conservation measures for the management of threatened taxa, there are no standard metrics for assessing progress in research or management. We developed 5 metrics to meet this need for threatened taxa and to quantify the need for further action and effective alleviation of threats. These metrics (research need, research achievement, management need, management achievement, and percent threat reduction) can be aggregated to examine trends for an individual taxon or for threats across multiple taxa. We tested the utility of these metrics by applying them to Australian threatened birds, which appears to be the first time that progress in research and management of threats has been assessed for all threatened taxa in a faunal group at a continental scale. Some research has been conducted on nearly three‐quarters of known threats to taxa, and there is a clear understanding of how to alleviate nearly half of the threats with the highest impact. Some management has been attempted on nearly half the threats. Management outcomes ranged from successful trials to complete mitigation of the threat, including for one‐third of high‐impact threats. Progress in both research and management tended to be greater for taxa that were monitored or occurred on oceanic islands. Predation by cats had the highest potential threat score. However, there has been some success reducing the impact of cat predation, so climate change (particularly drought), now poses the greatest threat to Australian threatened birds. Our results demonstrate the potential for the proposed metrics to encapsulate the major trends in research and management of both threats and threatened taxa and provide a basis for international comparisons of evidence‐based conservation science

Emergent Semiclassical Time in Quantum Gravity. I. Mechanical Models

Strategies intended to resolve the problem of time in quantum gravity by means of emergent or hidden timefunctions are considered in the arena of relational particle toy models. In situations with `heavy' and `light' degrees of freedom, two notions of emergent semiclassical WKB time emerge; these are furthermore equivalent to two notions of emergent classical `Leibniz--Mach--Barbour' time. I futhermore study the semiclassical approach, in a geometric phase formalism, extended to include linear constraints, and with particular care to make explicit those approximations and assumptions used. I propose a new iterative scheme for this in the cosmologically-motivated case with one heavy degree of freedom. I find that the usual semiclassical quantum cosmology emergence of time comes hand in hand with the emergence of other qualitatively significant terms, including back-reactions on the heavy subsystem and second time derivatives. I illustrate my analysis by taking it further for relational particle models with linearly-coupled harmonic oscillator potentials. As these examples are exactly soluble by means outside the semiclassical approach, they are additionally useful for testing the justifiability of some of the approximations and assumptions habitually made in the semiclassical approach to quantum cosmology. Finally, I contrast the emergent semiclassical timefunction with its hidden dilational Euler time counterpart.Comment: References Update

Phenomenology of the Lense-Thirring effect in the Solar System

Recent years have seen increasing efforts to directly measure some aspects of the general relativistic gravitomagnetic interaction in several astronomical scenarios in the solar system. After briefly overviewing the concept of gravitomagnetism from a theoretical point of view, we review the performed or proposed attempts to detect the Lense-Thirring effect affecting the orbital motions of natural and artificial bodies in the gravitational fields of the Sun, Earth, Mars and Jupiter. In particular, we will focus on the evaluation of the impact of several sources of systematic uncertainties of dynamical origin to realistically elucidate the present and future perspectives in directly measuring such an elusive relativistic effect.Comment: LaTex, 51 pages, 14 figures, 22 tables. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Science (ApSS). Some uncited references in the text now correctly quoted. One reference added. A footnote adde

Effects of Glyphosate and its Formulation, Roundup, on Reproduction in Zebrafish (Danio rerio)

This is an open access article that is freely available in ORE or from the publisher's web site. Please cite the published version.Copyright © 2014 American Chemical SocietyRoundup and its active ingredient glyphosate are among the most widely used herbicides worldwide and may contaminate surface waters. Research suggests both Roundup and glyphosate induce oxidative stress in fish and may also cause reproductive toxicity in mammalian systems. We aimed to investigate the reproductive effects of Roundup and glyphosate in fish and the potential associated mechanisms of toxicity. To do this, we conducted a 21-day exposure of breeding zebrafish (Danio rerio) to 0.01, 0.5, and 10 mg/L (glyphosate acid equivalent) Roundup and 10 mg/L glyphosate. 10 mg/L glyphosate reduced egg production but not fertilization rate in breeding colonies. Both 10 mg/L Roundup and glyphosate increased early stage embryo mortalities and premature hatching. However, exposure during embryogenesis alone did not increase embryo mortality, suggesting that this effect was caused primarily by exposure during gametogenesis. Transcript profiling of the gonads revealed 10 mg/L Roundup and glyphosate induced changes in the expression of cyp19a1 and esr1 in the ovary and hsd3b2, cat, and sod1 in the testis. Our results demonstrate that these chemicals cause reproductive toxicity in zebrafish, although only at high concentrations unlikely to occur in the environment, and likely mechanisms of toxicity include disruption of the steroidogenic biosynthesis pathway and oxidative stress.Natural Environment Research Counci

Estimating the number of colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-tumour therapy in 2015: the analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) represents a serious health care problem in the Czech Republic, introducing a need for a prospective modelling of the incidence and prevalence rates. The prevalence of patients requiring anti-tumour therapy is also of great importance, as it is directly associated with planning of health care resources.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This work proposes a population-based model for the estimation of stage-specific prevalence of CRC patients who will require active anti-tumour therapy in a given year. Its applicability is documented on records of the Czech National Cancer Registry (CNCR), which is used to estimate the number of patients potentially treated with anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Several scenarios are adopted to cover the plausible development of the incidence and survival rates, and the probability of an anti-tumour therapy initiation. Based on the scenarios, the model predicts an increase in CRC prevalence from 13% to 30% in comparison with the situation in 2008. Moreover, the model predicts that 10,074 to 11,440 CRC patients will be indicated for anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015. Considering all patients with terminal cancer recurrence and all patients primarily diagnosed in stage IV, it is predicted that 3,485 to 4,469 CRC patients will be treated for the metastatic disease in 2015, which accounts for more than one third (34-40%) of all CRC patients treated this year.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A new model for the estimation of the number of CRC patients requiring active anti-tumour therapy is proposed in this paper. The model respects the clinical stage as the primary stratification factor and utilizes solely the population-based cancer registry data. Thus, no specific hospital data records are needed in the proposed approach. Regarding the short-term prediction of the CRC burden in the Czech Republic, the model confirms a continuous increase in the burden that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.</p

Modeling Mechanisms of In Vivo Variability in Methotrexate Accumulation and Folate Pathway Inhibition in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia Cells

Methotrexate (MTX) is widely used for the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The accumulation of MTX and its active metabolites, methotrexate polyglutamates (MTXPG), in ALL cells is an important determinant of its antileukemic effects. We studied 194 of 356 patients enrolled on St. Jude Total XV protocol for newly diagnosed ALL with the goal of characterizing the intracellular pharmacokinetics of MTXPG in leukemia cells; relating these pharmacokinetics to ALL lineage, ploidy and molecular subtype; and using a folate pathway model to simulate optimal treatment strategies. Serial MTX concentrations were measured in plasma and intracellular MTXPG concentrations were measured in circulating leukemia cells. A pharmacokinetic model was developed which accounted for the plasma disposition of MTX along with the transport and metabolism of MTXPG. In addition, a folate pathway model was adapted to simulate the effects of treatment strategies on the inhibition of de novo purine synthesis (DNPS). The intracellular MTXPG pharmacokinetic model parameters differed significantly by lineage, ploidy, and molecular subtypes of ALL. Folylpolyglutamate synthetase (FPGS) activity was higher in B vs T lineage ALL (p<0.005), MTX influx and FPGS activity were higher in hyperdiploid vs non-hyperdiploid ALL (p<0.03), MTX influx and FPGS activity were lower in the t(12;21) (ETV6-RUNX1) subtype (p<0.05), and the ratio of FPGS to γ-glutamyl hydrolase (GGH) activity was lower in the t(1;19) (TCF3-PBX1) subtype (p<0.03) than other genetic subtypes. In addition, the folate pathway model showed differential inhibition of DNPS relative to MTXPG accumulation, MTX dose, and schedule. This study has provided new insights into the intracellular disposition of MTX in leukemia cells and how it affects treatment efficacy

Extreme Conservation Leads to Recovery of the Virunga Mountain Gorillas

As wildlife populations are declining, conservationists are under increasing pressure to measure the effectiveness of different management strategies. Conventional conservation measures such as law enforcement and community development projects are typically designed to minimize negative human influences upon a species and its ecosystem. In contrast, we define “extreme” conservation as efforts targeted to deliberately increase positive human influences, including veterinary care and close monitoring of individual animals. Here we compare the impact of both conservation approaches upon the population growth rate of the critically endangered Virunga mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei), which increased by 50% since their nadir in 1981, from approximately 250 to nearly 400 gorillas. Using demographic data from 1967–2008, we show an annual decline of 0.7%±0.059% for unhabituated gorillas that received intensive levels of conventional conservation approaches, versus an increase 4.1%±0.088% for habituated gorillas that also received extreme conservation measures. Each group of habituated gorillas is now continuously guarded by a separate team of field staff during daylight hours and receives veterinary treatment for snares, respiratory disease, and other life-threatening conditions. These results suggest that conventional conservation efforts prevented a severe decline of the overall population, but additional extreme measures were needed to achieve positive growth. Demographic stochasticity and socioecological factors had minimal impact on variability in the growth rates. Veterinary interventions could account for up to 40% of the difference in growth rates between habituated versus unhabituated gorillas, with the remaining difference likely arising from greater protection against poachers. Thus, by increasing protection and facilitating veterinary treatment, the daily monitoring of each habituated group contributed to most of the difference in growth rates. Our results argue for wider consideration of extreme measures and offer a startling view of the enormous resources that may be needed to conserve some endangered species

Marine mammals and Good Environmental Status: Science, Policy and Society; Challenges and Opportunities

The Marine Strategy Framework Directive has become the key instrument for marine conservation in European seas. We review its implementation, focusing on cetacean biodiversity, using the examples of Spain and the Regional Seas Convention, OSPAR. The MSFD has been widely criticised for legal vagueness, lack of coordination, uncertainty about funding, and poor governance; its future role within EU Integrated Maritime Policy remains unclear. Nevertheless, the first stages of the process have run broadly to schedule: current status, environmental objectives and indicators have been described and the design of monitoring programmes is in progress, drawing on experience with other environmental legislation. The MSFD is now entering its critical phase, with lack of funding for monitoring, limited scope for management interventions, and uncertainty about how conservation objectives will be reconciled with the needs of other marine and maritime sectors, being among the main concerns. Clarity in governance, about the roles of the EU, Member States, Regional Seas Conventions and stakeholders, is needed to ensure success. However, even if (as seems likely) good environmental status cannot be achieved by 2020, significant steps will have been taken to place environmental sustainability centre-stage in the development of Integrated Maritime Policy for EU seas.Postprin