Slowing the treadmill for a good life for All? German trade union narratives and social-ecological transformation

The “treadmill of production” economic system increasingly threatens to undermine the foundations of future human welfare. While urgent action is needed, conceptualisations of “the good life” (TGL) as the “imperial mode of living” (IML) of overconsumption are justifications upholding the system and driving forces behind the crises. German trade unions, which, as part of the historic bloc of the growth coalition, have tried to delay climate action in the name of jobs through “praising work”, have supported the hegemonic common sense of IML-TGL. This is an obstacle to environmental union organisation and progressive coalitions for social-ecological transformation. To investigate whether and to what extent divergent good sense counter-hegemonic narratives are present within German trade union discourses, we analyse the narratives of TGL and good work within the three biggest German unions – ver.di, IG Metall, and IG BCE – using Gramsci’s theory of common sense. We find that counter-narratives of TGL are present to different degrees within the unions and amongst interviewees. These can provide entry points for counter-hegemonic narratives of TGL and alliances with societal actors fighting for “solidary modes of living”, or a Good Life for All within planetary boundaries

Effect of the Mechanism Transfer Function on the Positioning Law

Parametric synthesis of mechanical system consisting of actuator, transfer mechanism and control device is considered. Planar and spatial mechanisms with one degree of freedom can be included in the system. Mechanism structure and the type of the actuator are considered to be given preliminary.     Keywords: synthesis, mechanism, drive, contro

Capturing Model Risk and Rating Momentum in the Estimation of Probabilities of Default and Credit Rating Migrations

We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for the Fisher information matrix, reducing the computational time needed for the Wald confidence interval by a factor of a half. We provide an efficient procedure for transferring such uncertainties from the generator matrix of the Markov chain to the corresponding rating migration probabilities and, crucially, default probabilities. For our second contribution, we assume access to the full (continuous) data set and propose a tractable and parsimonious self-exciting marked point processes model able to capture the non-Markovian effect of rating momentum. Compared to the Markov model, the non-Markov model yields higher probabilities of default in the investment grades, but also lower default probabilities in some speculative grades. Both findings agree with empirical observations and have clear practical implications. We illustrate all methods using data from Moody's proprietary corporate credit ratings data set. Implementations are available in the R package ctmcd.Comment: 22 pages, 5 Figures, 4 Tables. To Appear in Quantitative Financ

Information mobility in complex networks

The concept of information mobility in complex networks is introduced on the basis of a stochastic process taking place in the network. The transition matrix for this process represents the probability that the information arising at a given node is transferred to a target one. We use the fractional powers of this transition matrix to investigate the stochastic process at fractional time intervals. The mobility coefficient is then introduced on the basis of the trace of these fractional powers of the stochastic matrix. The fractional time at which a network diffuses 50% of the information contained in its nodes (1/ k50 ) is also introduced. We then show that the scale-free random networks display better spread of information than the non scale-free ones. We study 38 real-world networks and analyze their performance in spreading information from their nodes. We find that some real-world networks perform even better than the scale-free networks with the same average degree and we point out some of the structural parameters that make this possible

Abstinence-Only Education and Teen Pregnancy Rates: Why We Need Comprehensive Sex Education in the U.S

The United States ranks first among developed nations in rates of both teenage pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases. In an effort to reduce these rates, the U.S. government has funded abstinence-only sex education programs for more than a decade. However, a public controversy remains over whether this investment has been successful and whether these programs should be continued. Using the most recent national data (2005) from all U.S. states with information on sex education laws or policies (N = 48), we show that increasing emphasis on abstinence education is positively correlated with teenage pregnancy and birth rates. This trend remains significant after accounting for socioeconomic status, teen educational attainment, ethnic composition of the teen population, and availability of Medicaid waivers for family planning services in each state. These data show clearly that abstinence-only education as a state policy is ineffective in preventing teenage pregnancy and may actually be contributing to the high teenage pregnancy rates in the U.S. In alignment with the new evidence-based Teen Pregnancy Prevention Initiative and the Precaution Adoption Process Model advocated by the National Institutes of Health, we propose the integration of comprehensive sex and STD education into the biology curriculum in middle and high school science classes and a parallel social studies curriculum that addresses risk-aversion behaviors and planning for the future