A Lyapunov function and global properties for SIR and SEIR epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence

Explicit Lyapunov functions for SIR and SEIR compartmental epidemic models with nonlinear incidence of the form $\beta I_p S_q$ for the case p<1 are constructed. Global stability of the models is thereby established

Nonlinear incidence and stability of infectious disease models

In this paper we consider the impact of the form of the non-linearity of the infectious disease incidence rate on the dynamics of epidemiological models. We consider a very general form of the non-linear incidence rate (in fact, we assumed that the incidence rate is given by an arbitrary function f (S, I, N) constrained by a few biologically feasible conditions) and a variety of epidemiological models. We show that under the constant population size assumption, these models exhibit asymptotically stable steady states. Precisely, we demonstrate that the concavity of the incidence rate with respect to the number of infective individuals is a sufficient condition for stability. If the incidence rate is concave in the number of the infectives, the models we consider have either a unique and stable endemic equilibrium state or no endemic equilibrium state at all; in the latter case the infection-free equilibrium state is stable. For the incidence rate of the form g(I)h(S), we prove global stability, constructing a Lyapunov function and using the direct Lyapunov method. It is remarkable that the system dynamics is independent of how the incidence rate depends on the number of susceptible individuals. We demonstrate this result using a SIRS model and a SEIRS model as case studies. For other compartment epidemic models, the analysis is quite similar, and the same conclusion, namely stability of the equilibrium states, holds

Cluster formation for multi-strain infections with cross-immunity

Many infectious diseases exist in several pathogenic variants, or strains, which interact via cross-immunity. It is observed that strains tend to self-organise into groups, or clusters. The aim of this paper is to investigate cluster formation. Computations demonstrate that clustering is independent of the model used, and is an intrinsic feature of the strain system itself. We observe that an ordered strain system, if it is sufficiently complex, admits several cluster structures of different types. Appearance of a particular cluster structure depends on levels of cross-immunity and, in some cases, on initial conditions. Clusters, once formed, are stable, and behave remarkably regularly (in contrast to the generally chaotic behaviour of the strains themselves). In general, clustering is a type of self-organisation having many features in common with pattern formation

Stryker Osteonics: Prosthetic Knee Joint

We examine, within a simple bearing model of a knee joint that only consideres pure sliding, the effect of the presence of a small vertical hole in the load area on the fluid film properties. The calculations indicate that fluid is entrapped in such a hole, which, for constant load, causes a smaller minimal film separation of the two surfaces. This will lower the horizontal friction, but may also bring about surface contact in high load situations

Model based methodology development for energy recovery in ash heat exchange systems

Flash tank evaporation combined with a condensing heat exchanger can be used when heat exchange is required between two streams and where at least one of these streams is difficult to handle (in terms of solid particles content, viscosity, pH, consistency etc.). To increase the efficiency of heat exchange, a cascade of these units in series can be used. Heat transfer relationships in such a cascade are very complex due to their interconnectivity, thus the impact of any changes proposed is difficult to predict. In this report, a mathematical model of a single unit ash tank evaporator combined with a condensing heat exchanger unit is proposed. This model is then developed for a chain of the units. The purpose of this model is to allow an accurate evaluation of the effect and result of an alteration to the system. The resulting model is applied to the RUSAL Aughinish Alumina digester area

Digital ecosystem model of the agro-industrial complex

The study is devoted to modelling a sectoral ecosystem for the agro-industrial complex, incorporating into a single platform solution tools and mechanisms for the interaction between sectoral business structures in value chains as well as the proactive implementation of government functions for managing and supporting the industry. The ecosystem architecture has been developed and structured in terms of organizational, infrastructure, innovation, communication and logistics components. The role of the system actor and IT integrator is assigned to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. The main and additional functions of the digital platform are highlighted. A description of its product and service segments is provided. The options for implementing the process subsystem on the Gostech and GosOblako platforms as well as the Russian Agricultural Bank platform are assessed, the advantages of each solution presented. The importance of involving the research potential of departmental high education institutions and research institutes in the development of the ecosystem’s service segment is substantiated

Estimation of effective vaccination rate for pertussis in New Zealand as a case study

In some cases vaccination is unreliable. For example vaccination against pertussis has comparatively high level of primary and secondary failures. To evaluate efficiency of vaccination we introduce the idea of effective vaccination rate and suggest an approach to estimate it. We consider pertussis in New Zealand as a case study. The results indicate that the level of immunity failure for pertussis is considerably higher than was anticipated

PREVENTION OF AVIAN INFLUENZA EPIDEMIC : WHAT POLICY SHOULD WE CHOOSE?

Joint Research on Environmental Science and Technology for the Eart