Climatic impact of the A.D. 1783 Asama (Japan) Eruption was minimal: Evidence from the GISP2 Ice Core

Assessing the climatic impact of the A.D. 1783 eruption of Mt. Asama, Japan, is complicated by the concurrent eruption of Laki, Iceland. Estimates of the stratospheric loading of H2SO4 for the A.D. 1108 eruption of Asama derived from the SO42− time series in the GISP2 Greenland ice core indicate a loading of about 10.4 Tg H2SO4 with a resulting stratospheric optical depth of 0.087. Assuming sulfur emissions from the 1783 eruption were only one‐third of the 1108 event yields a H2SO4 loading value of 3.5 Tg and a stratospheric optical depth of only 0.029. These results suggest minimal climatic effects in the Northern Hemisphere from the 1783 Asama eruption, thus any volcanically‐induced cooling in the mid‐1780s is probably due to the Laki eruption

Greenland ice core “signal” characteristics: An expanded view of climate change

The last millenium of Earth history is of particular interest because it documents the environmental complexities of both natural variability and anthropogenic activity. We have analyzed the major ions contained in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP 2) ice core from the present to ∼674 A.D. to yield an environmental reconstruction for this period that includes a description of nitrogen and sulfur cycling, volcanic emissions, sea salt and terrestrial influences. We have adapted and extended mathematical procedures for extracting sporadic (e.g., volcanic) events, secular trends, and periodicities found in the data sets. Finally, by not assuming that periodic components (signals) were “stationary” and by utilizing evolutionary spectral analysis, we were able to reveal periodic processes in the climate system which change in frequency, “turn on,” and “turn off” with other climate transitions such as\u27that between the little ice age and the medieval warm period

Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega‐Eruption ∼71,000 Years Ago

An ∼6‐year long period of volcanic sulfate recorded in the GISP2 ice core about 71,100 ± 5000 years ago may provide detailed information on the atmospheric and climatic impact of the Toba mega‐eruption. Deposition of these aerosols occur at the beginning of an ∼1000‐year long stadial event, but not immediately before the longer glacial period beginning ∼67,500 years ago. Total stratospheric loading estimates over this ∼6‐year period range from 2200 to 4400 Mt of H2SO4 aerosols. The range in values is given to compensate for uncertainties in aerosol transport. Magnitude and longevity of the atmospheric loading may have led directly to enhanced cooling during the initial two centuries of this ∼1000‐year cooling event

Statistical strategies for constructing health risk models with multiple pollutants and their interactions: possible choices and comparisons

Abstract Background As public awareness of consequences of environmental exposures has grown, estimating the adverse health effects due to simultaneous exposure to multiple pollutants is an important topic to explore. The challenges of evaluating the health impacts of environmental factors in a multipollutant model include, but are not limited to: identification of the most critical components of the pollutant mixture, examination of potential interaction effects, and attribution of health effects to individual pollutants in the presence of multicollinearity. Methods In this paper, we reviewed five methods available in the statistical literature that are potentially helpful for constructing multipollutant models. We conducted a simulation study and presented two data examples to assess the performance of these methods on feature selection, effect estimation and interaction identification using both cross-sectional and time-series designs. We also proposed and evaluated a two-step strategy employing an initial screening by a tree-based method followed by further dimension reduction/variable selection by the aforementioned five approaches at the second step. Results Among the five methods, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression performs well in general for identifying important exposures, but will yield biased estimates and slightly larger model dimension given many correlated candidate exposures and modest sample size. Bayesian model averaging, and supervised principal component analysis are also useful in variable selection when there is a moderately strong exposure-response association. Substantial improvements on reducing model dimension and identifying important variables have been observed for all the five statistical methods using the two-step modeling strategy when the number of candidate variables is large. Conclusions There is no uniform dominance of one method across all simulation scenarios and all criteria. The performances differ according to the nature of the response variable, the sample size, the number of pollutants involved, and the strength of exposure-response association/interaction. However, the two-step modeling strategy proposed here is potentially applicable under a multipollutant framework with many covariates by taking advantage of both the screening feature of an initial tree-based method and dimension reduction/variable selection property of the subsequent method. The choice of the method should also depend on the goal of the study: risk prediction, effect estimation or screening for important predictors and their interactions.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/112386/1/12940_2013_Article_691.pd

A titanium-nitride near-infrared kinetic inductance photon-counting detector and its anomalous electrodynamics

We demonstrate single-photon counting at 1550 nm with titanium-nitride (TiN) microwave kinetic inductance detectors. Energy resolution of 0.4 eV and arrival-time resolution of 1.2 microseconds are achieved. 0-, 1-, 2-photon events are resolved and shown to follow Poisson statistics. We find that the temperature-dependent frequency shift deviates from the Mattis-Bardeen theory, and the dissipation response shows a shorter decay time than the frequency response at low temperatures. We suggest that the observed anomalous electrodynamics may be related to quasiparticle traps or subgap states in the disordered TiN films. Finally, the electron density-of-states is derived from the pulse response.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Interaction and flocculation of spherical colloids wetted by a surface-induced corona of paranematic order

Particles dispersed in a liquid crystal above the nematic-isotropic phase transition are wetted by a surface-induced corona of paranematic order. Such coronas give rise to pronounced two-particle interactions. In this article, we report details on the analytical and numerical study of these interactions published recently [Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 3915 (2001)]. We especially demonstrate how for large particle separations the asymptotic form of a Yukawa potential arises. We show that the Yukawa potential is a surprisingly good description for the two-particle interactions down to distances of the order of the nematic coherence length. Based on this fact, we extend earlier studies on a temperature induced flocculation transition in electrostatically stabilized colloidal dispersions [Phys. Rev. E 61, 2831 (2000)]. We employ the Yukawa potential to establish a flocculation diagram for a much larger range of the electrostatic parameters, namely the surface charge density and the Debye screening length. As a new feature, a kinetically stabilized dispersion close to the nematic-isotropic phase transition is found.Comment: Revtex v4.0, 16 pages, 12 Postscript figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

An Unrecognized Source of PCB Contamination in Schools and Other Buildings

An investigation of 24 buildings in the Greater Boston Area revealed that one-third (8 of 24) contained caulking materials with polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) content exceeding 50 ppm by weight, which is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) specified limit above which this material is considered to be PCB bulk product waste. These buildings included schools and other public buildings. In a university building where similar levels of PCB were found in caulking material, PCB levels in indoor air ranged from 111 to 393 ng/m(3); and in dust taken from the building ventilation system, < 1 ppm to 81 ppm. In this building, the U.S. EPA mandated requirements for the removal and disposal of the PCB bulk product waste as well as for confirmatory sampling to ensure that the interior and exterior of the building were decontaminated. Although U.S. EPA regulations under the Toxic Substances Control Act stipulate procedures by which PCB-contaminated materials must be handled and disposed, the regulations apparently do not require that materials such as caulking be tested to determine its PCB content. This limited investigation strongly suggests that were this testing done, many buildings would be found to contain high levels of PCBs in the building materials and potentially in the building environment. The presence of PCBs in schools is of particular concern given evidence suggesting that PCBs are developmental toxins

Bayesian Life Test Planning for the Log-Location-Scale Family of Distributions

This paper describes Bayesian methods for life test planning with censored data from a log-location-scale distribution, when prior information of the distribution parameters is available. We use a Bayesian criterion based on the estimation precision of a distribution quantile. A large sample normal approximation gives a simplified, easy-tointerpret, yet valid approach to this planning problem, where in general no closed form solutions are available. To illustrate this approach, we present numerical investigations using the Weibull distribution with Type II censoring. We also assess the effects of prior distribution choice. A simulation approach of the same Bayesian problem is also presented as a tool for visualization and validation. The validation results generally are consistent with those from the large sample approximation approach

Exposure to Bisphenol A and phthalates metabolites in the third trimester of pregnancy and BMI trajectories

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146291/1/ijpo12279.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146291/2/ijpo12279_am.pd