90 research outputs found

    Spatial and temporal patterns of deformation at the Tendaho geothermal prospect, Ethiopia

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    Observations of ground deformation in East Africa have been fundamental for unveiling the tectonics of continental rifting, assessing the seismic and volcanic hazard to development, and identifying geothermal resources. Here we investigate the active natural and anthropogenic processes in the Tendaho Graben, Afar using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) collected by the Envisat satellite in 2004–2010. We used the Poly-Interferometric Rate And time series Estimation (π-RATE) method to calculate displacement in satellite line-of-sight, and a least-square inversion to decompose the line-of-sight displacement into vertical and rift perpendicular components. We observe two zones of deformation: a 20 km wide circular region of subsidence located 10 km northeast of the town of Semera with a maximum displacement rate of ∌5 cm/yr; and elongated zone (50 km) of subsidence in the area of the geothermal prospect, maximum rate of ∌4 cm/yr. The temporal characteristics of subsidence varies between these zones, with an increase in subsidence rate observed in the circular region in August 2008. We used a Bayesian inversion to find the best fitting source models and compared this to locations of seismicity and other geophysical observations. The pattern of deformation is consistent with a combination of magmatic and geothermal processes, but there does not appear to be a direct link to a sequence of dyke intrusions during 2005–2010 at Manda Hararo graben ∌60 km away, but dynamic stress changes or deep crustal flow could account for the observations

    How the risk of liver cancer changes after alcohol cessation: A review and meta-analysis of the current literature

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is well established that drinking alcohol raises the risk of liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma). However, it has not been sufficiently established as to whether or not drinking cessation subsequently reduces the risk of liver cancer and if it does reduce the risk how long it takes for this heightened risk to fall to that of never drinkers. This question is important for effective policy design and evaluation, to establish causality and for motivational treatments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A systematic review and meta-analysis using the current available evidence and a specific form of Generalised Least Squares is performed to assess how the risk of liver cancer changes with time for former drinkers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Four studies are found to have quantified the effect of drinking cessation on the risk of liver cancer. The meta-analysis suggests that the risk of liver cancer does indeed fall after cessation by 6-7% a year, but there remains a large uncertainty around this estimate both statistically and in its interpretation. As an illustration it is estimated that a time period of 23 years is required after drinking cessation, with a correspondingly large 95% confidence interval of 14 to 70 years, for the risk of liver cancer to be equal to that of never drinkers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is a relatively under researched area and this is reflected in the uncertainty of the findings. It is our view that it is not possible to extrapolate the results found here to the general population. Too few studies have addressed this question and of the studies that have, all have significant limitations. The key issue amongst the relevant studies is that it appears that current drinkers, abstainers and former drinkers are not composed of, or effectively adjusted to be, similar populations making inferences about risk changes impossible. This is a very difficult area to study effectively, but it is an important topic. More work is required to reduce both statistical uncertainty and tackle the various study limitations this paper highlights and until this is done, the current result should be considered preliminary.</p

    Systematic review and meta-analysis of reduction in all-cause mortality from walking and cycling and shape of dose response relationship

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    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Walking and cycling have shown beneficial effects on population risk of all-cause mortality (ACM). This paper aims to review the evidence and quantify these effects, adjusted for other physical activity (PA). DATA SOURCES: We conducted a systematic review to identify relevant studies. Searches were conducted in November 2013 using the following health databases of publications: Embase (OvidSP); Medline (OvidSP); Web of Knowledge; CINAHL; SCOPUS; SPORTDiscus. We also searched reference lists of relevant texts and reviews. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA AND PARTICIPANTS: Eligible studies were prospective cohort design and reporting walking or cycling exposure and mortality as an outcome. Only cohorts of individuals healthy at baseline were considered eligible. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Extracted data included study population and location, sample size, population characteristics (age and sex), follow-up in years, walking or cycling exposure, mortality outcome, and adjustment for other co-variables. We used random-effects meta-analyses to investigate the beneficial effects of regular walking and cycling. RESULTS: Walking (18 results from 14 studies) and cycling (8 results from 7 studies) were shown to reduce the risk of all-cause mortality, adjusted for other PA. For a standardised dose of 11.25 MET.hours per week (or 675 MET.minutes per week), the reduction in risk for ACM was 11% (95% CI = 4 to 17%) for walking and 10% (95% CI = 6 to 13%) for cycling. The estimates for walking are based on 280,000 participants and 2.6 million person-years and for cycling they are based on 187,000 individuals and 2.1 million person-years. The shape of the dose-response relationship was modelled through meta-analysis of pooled relative risks within three exposure intervals. The dose-response analysis showed that walking or cycling had the greatest effect on risk for ACM in the first (lowest) exposure interval. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The analysis shows that walking and cycling have population-level health benefits even after adjustment for other PA. Public health approaches would have the biggest impact if they are able to increase walking and cycling levels in the groups that have the lowest levels of these activities. REVIEW REGISTRATION: The review protocol was registered with PROSPERO (International database of prospectively registered systematic reviews in health and social care) PROSPERO 2013: CRD42013004266

    The relation between smokeless tobacco and cancer in Northern Europe and North America. A commentary on differences between the conclusions reached by two recent reviews

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Smokeless tobacco is an alternative for smokers who want to quit but require nicotine. Reliable evidence on its effects is needed. Boffetta et al. and ourselves recently reviewed the evidence on cancer, based on Scandinavian and US studies. Boffetta et al. claimed a significant 60–80% increase for oropharyngeal, oesophageal and pancreatic cancer, and a non-significant 20% increase for lung cancer, data for other cancers being "too sparse". We found increases less than 15% for oesophageal, pancreatic and lung cancer, and a significant 36% increase for oropharyngeal cancer, which disappeared in recent studies. We found no association with stomach, bladder and all cancers combined, using data as extensive as that for oesophageal, pancreatic and lung cancer. We explain these differences.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For those cancers Boffetta et al. considered, we compared the methods, studies and risk estimates used in the two reviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One major reason for the difference is our more consistent approach in choosing between study-specific never smoker and combined smoker/non-smoker estimates. Another is our use of derived as well as published estimates. We included more studies, and avoided estimates for data subsets. Boffetta et al. also included some clearly biased or not smoking-adjusted estimates. For pancreatic cancer, their review included significantly increased never smoker estimates in one study and combined smoker/non-smoker estimates in another, omitting a combined estimate in the first study and a never smoker estimate in the second showing no increase. For oesophageal cancer, never smoker results from one study showing a marked increase for squamous cell carcinoma were included, but corresponding results for adenocarcinoma and combined smoker/non-smoker results for both cell types showing no increase were excluded. For oropharyngeal cancer, Boffetta et al. included a markedly elevated estimate that was not smoking-adjusted, and overlooked the lack of association in recent studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When conducting meta-analyses, all relevant data should be used, with clear rules governing the choice between alternative estimates. A systematic meta-analysis using pre-defined procedures and all relevant data gives a lower estimate of cancer risk from smokeless tobacco (probably 1–2% of that from smoking) than does the previous review by Boffetta et al.</p

    Thermal conductivity of refractory glass fibres

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    In the present study, the current international standards and corresponding apparatus for measuring the thermal conductivity of refractory glass fibre products have been reviewed. Refractory glass fibres are normally produced in the form of low-density needled mats. A major issue with thermal conductivity measurements of these materials is lack of reproducibility in the test results due to transformation of the test material during the test. Also needled mats are inherently inhomogeneous, and this poses additional problems. To be able to compare the various methods of thermal conductivity measurement, a refractory reference material was designed which is capable of withstanding maximum test temperatures (1673 K) with minimum transformation. The thermal conductivity of this reference material was then measured using various methods according to the different standards surveyed. In order to compare different materials, samples have been acquired from major refractory glass fibre manufacturers and the results have been compared against the newly introduced reference material. Materials manufactured by melt spinning, melt blowing and sol–gel have been studied, and results compared with literature values

    Systematic review with meta-analysis of the epidemiological evidence relating smoking to COPD, chronic bronchitis and emphysema

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Smoking is a known cause of the outcomes COPD, chronic bronchitis (CB) and emphysema, but no previous systematic review exists. We summarize evidence for various smoking indices.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Based on MEDLINE searches and other sources we obtained papers published to 2006 describing epidemiological studies relating incidence or prevalence of these outcomes to smoking. Studies in children or adolescents, or in populations at high respiratory disease risk or with co-existing diseases were excluded. Study-specific data were extracted on design, exposures and outcomes considered, and confounder adjustment. For each outcome RRs/ORs and 95% CIs were extracted for ever, current and ex smoking and various dose response indices, and meta-analyses and meta-regressions conducted to determine how relationships were modified by various study and RR characteristics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 218 studies identified, 133 provide data for COPD, 101 for CB and 28 for emphysema. RR estimates are markedly heterogeneous. Based on random-effects meta-analyses of most-adjusted RR/ORs, estimates are elevated for ever smoking (COPD 2.89, CI 2.63-3.17, n = 129 RRs; CB 2.69, 2.50-2.90, n = 114; emphysema 4.51, 3.38-6.02, n = 28), current smoking (COPD 3.51, 3.08-3.99; CB 3.41, 3.13-3.72; emphysema 4.87, 2.83-8.41) and ex smoking (COPD 2.35, 2.11-2.63; CB 1.63, 1.50-1.78; emphysema 3.52, 2.51-4.94). For COPD, RRs are higher for males, for studies conducted in North America, for cigarette smoking rather than any product smoking, and where the unexposed base is never smoking any product, and are markedly lower when asthma is included in the COPD definition. Variations by sex, continent, smoking product and unexposed group are in the same direction for CB, but less clearly demonstrated. For all outcomes RRs are higher when based on mortality, and for COPD are markedly lower when based on lung function. For all outcomes, risk increases with amount smoked and pack-years. Limited data show risk decreases with increasing starting age for COPD and CB and with increasing quitting duration for COPD. No clear relationship is seen with duration of smoking.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results confirm and quantify the causal relationships with smoking.</p

    Meta-analysis of the relation between European and American smokeless tobacco and oral cancer

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Smokeless tobacco is often referred to as a major contributor to oral cancer. In some regions, especially Southeast Asia, the risk is difficult to quantify due to the variety of products, compositions (including non-tobacco ingredients) and usage practices involved. In Western populations, the evidence of an increased risk in smokeless tobacco users seems unclear, previous reviews having reached somewhat differing conclusions. We report a detailed quantitative review of the evidence in American and European smokeless tobacco users, and compare our findings with previous reviews and meta-analyses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Following literature review a meta-analysis was conducted of 32 epidemiological studies published between 1920 and 2005 including tests for homogeneity and publication bias.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on 38 heterogeneous study-specific estimates of the odds ratio or relative risk for smokeless tobacco use, the random-effects estimate was 1.87 (95% confidence interval 1.40–2.48). The increase was mainly evident in studies conducted before 1980. No increase was seen in studies in Scandinavia. Restricting attention to the seven estimates adjusted for smoking and alcohol eliminated both heterogeneity and excess risk (1.02; 0.82–1.28). Estimates also varied by sex (higher in females) and by study design (higher in case-control studies with hospital controls) but more clearly in studies where estimates were unadjusted, even for age. The pattern of estimates suggests some publication bias. Based on limited data specific to never smokers, the random-effects estimate was 1.94 (0.88–4.28), the eight individual estimates being heterogeneous and based on few exposed cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Smokeless tobacco, as used in America or Europe, carries at most a minor increased risk of oral cancer. However, elevated risks in specific populations or from specific products cannot definitely be excluded.</p

    Landslides Triggered by the MW 7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake, New Zealand

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    The MW 7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura earthquake generated more than 10000 landslides over a total area of about 10000 km2, with the majority concentrated in a smaller area of about 3600 km2. The largest landslide triggered by the earthquake had an approximate volume of 20 (±2) M m3, with a runout distance of about 2.7 km, forming a dam on the Hapuku River. In this paper, we present version 1.0 of the landslide inventory we have created for this event. We use the inventory presented in this paper to identify and discuss some of the controls on the spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake. Our main findings are (1) the number of medium to large landslides (source area ≄10000 m2) triggered by the Kaikoura earthquake is smaller than for similar sized landslides triggered by similar magnitude earthquakes in New Zealand; (2) seven of the largest eight landslides (from 5 to 20 x 106 m3) occurred on faults that ruptured to the surface during the earthquake; (3) the average landslide density within 200 m of a mapped surface fault rupture is three times that at a distance of 2500 m or more from a mapped surface fault rupture ; (4) the “distance to fault” predictor variable, when used as a proxy for ground-motion intensity, and when combined with slope angle, geology and elevation variables, has more power in predicting landslide probability than the modelled peak ground acceleration or peak ground velocity; and (5) for the same slope angles, the coastal slopes have landslide point densities that are an order of magnitude greater than those in similar materials on the inland slopes, but their source areas are significantly smaller

    Active Tectonics Around Almaty and along the Zailisky Alatau Rangefront

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    This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017TC004657/abstractThe Zailisky Alatau is a >250-km-long mountain range in Southern Kazakhstan. Its northern rangefront around the major city of Almaty has more than 4 km topographic relief, yet in contrast to other large mountain fronts in the Tien Shan, little is known about its Late Quaternary tectonic activity despite several destructive earthquakes in the historical record. We analyse the tectonic geomorphology of the rangefront fault using field observations, differential GPS measurements of fault scarps, historical and recent satellite imagery, metre-scale topography derived from stereo satellite images, and decimetre-scale elevation models from UAV surveys. Fault scarps ranging in height from ~2 m to >20 m in alluvial fans indicate surface rupturing earthquakes occurred along the rangefront fault since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Minimum estimated magnitudes for those earthquakes are M6.8- 7. Radiocarbon dating results from charcoal layers in uplifted river terraces indicate a Holocene slip rate of ~1.2-2.2 mm/a. We find additional evidence for active tectonic deformation all along the Almaty rangefront, basinward in the Kazakh platform, and in the interior of the Zailisky mountain range. Our data indicate the seismic hazard faced by Almaty comes from a variety of sources, and we emphasize the problems related to urban growth into the loess-covered foothills and secondary earthquake effects. With our structural and geochronologic framework we present a schematic evolution of the Almaty rangefront that may be applicable to similar settings of tectonic shortening in the mountain ranges of Central Asia
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