Flat Energy-Histogram Simulation of the Phase Transition in an Ising Fully Frustrated Lattice

We show in this paper the results on the phase transition of the so-called fully frustrated simple cubic lattice with the Ising spin model. We use here the Monte Carlo method with the flat energy-histogram Wang-Landau technique which is very powerful to detect weak first-order phase transition. We show that the phase transition is clearly of first order, providing a definite answer to a question raised 25 years ago.Comment: Submitted for publicatio

Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from −90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures (‘lockdowns’). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95–0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92–0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94–1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96–1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88–1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88–1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87–1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02–1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03–1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03–1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05–1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways

Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries

Funding Information: M.B.A. holds a Tier 2 Canada Research Chair in the Developmental Origins of Chronic Disease at the University of Manitoba and is a Fellow in the Canadian Institutes for Advanced Research (CIFAR) Humans and the Microbiome Program. Her effort on this project was partly supported by HDR UK and ICODA. K.K.C.M. declares support from The Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, and Hong Kong Research Grants Council Collaborative Research Fund Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and Novel Infectious Disease Research Exercise (Ref: C7154-20G) and grants from C W Maplethorpe Fellowship, National Institute of Health Research UK, European Commission Framework Horizon 2020 and has consulted for IQVIA Ltd. A.S. is supported by ICODA and HDR UK, and has received a research grant from HDR UK to the BREATHE Hub. He participates on the Scottish and UK Government COVID-19 Advisory Committees, unremunerated. S.J.S. is supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Career Development Fellowship (209560/Z/17/Z) and HDR UK, and has received personal fees from Hologic and Natera outside the submitted work. D.B. is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia) Investigator Grant (GTN1175744). I.C.K.W. declares support from The Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, and Hong Kong Research Grants Council Collaborative Research Fund Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and Novel Infectious Disease Research Exercise (Ref: C7154-20G), and grants from Hong Kong Research Grant Council, National Institute of Health Research UK, and European Commission Framework Horizon 2020. H.Z. is supported by a UNSW Scientia Program Award and reports grants from European Commission Framework Horizon 2020, Icelandic Centre for Research, and Australia’s National Health and Medical Research Council. H.Z. was an employee of the UNSW Centre for Big Data Research in Health, which received funding from AbbVie Australia to conduct research, unrelated to the current study. I.I.A.A., C.D.A., K.A., A.I.A., L.C., S.S., G.E.-G., O.W.G., L. Huicho, S.H., A.K., K.L., V.N., I.P., N.R.R., T.R., T.A.H.R., V.L.S., E.M.S., L.T., R.W. and H.Z. received funding from HDRUK (grant #2020.106) to support data collection for the iPOP study. K.H., R.B., S.O.E., A.R.-P. and J.H. receive salary from ICODA. M.B. received trainee funding from HDRUK (grant #2020.106). J.E.M. received trainee funding from HDRUK (grant #2020.109). Other relevant funding awarded to authors to conduct research for iPOP include: M.G. received funding from THL, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare to support data collection. K.D. received funding from EDCTP RIA2019 and HDRUK (grant #2020.106) to support data collection. R.B. received funding from Alzheimer’s Disease Data Initiative and ICODA for the development of federated analysis. A.D.M. received funding from HDR UK who receives its funding from the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation (BHF) and the Wellcome Trust; and Administrative Data Research UK, which is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (grant ES/S007393/1). N.A. received funding from the National Institutes of Health (R35GM138353). O.S received funding from NordForsk (grant #105545). The remaining authors declare no competing interests. Funding Information: Funding and in-kind support: This work was supported by the International COVID-19 Data Alliance (ICODA), an initiative funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Minderoo as part of the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator and convened by Health Data Research (HDR) UK, in addition to support from the HDR UK BREATHE Hub. Several ICODA partners contributed to the study, including: Cytel (statistical support), the Odd Group (data visualization) and Aridhia Informatics (development of federated analysis using a standardized protocol ([Common API] https://github.com/federated-data-sharing/ ) to be used in future work). Additional contributors: We acknowledge the important contributions from the following individuals: A. C. Hennemann and D. Suguitani (patient partners from Prematuridade: Brazilian Parents of Preemies’ Association, Porto Alegre, Brazil); N. Postlethwaite (implementation of processes supporting the trustworthy collection, governance and analysis of data from ICODA, HDR UK, London, UK); A. S. Babatunde (led data acquisition from University of Uyo Teaching Hospital, Uyo, Nigeria); N. Silva (data quality, revision and visualization assessment from Methods, Analytics and Technology for Health (M.A.T.H) Consortium, Belo Horizonte, Brazil); J. Söderling (data management from the Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden). We also acknowledge the following individuals who assisted with data collection efforts: R. Goemaes (Study Centre for Perinatal Epidemiology (SPE), Brussels, Belgium); C. Leroy (Le Centre d'Épidémiologie Périnatale (CEpiP), Brussels, Belgium); J. Gamba and K. Ronald (St. Francis Nsambya Hospital, Kampala, Uganda); M. Heidarzadeh (Tabriz Medical University, Tabriz, Iran); M. J. Ojeda (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile); S. Nangia (Lady Hardinge Medical College, New Delhi, India); C. Nelson, S. Metcalfe and W. Luo (Maternal Infant Health Section of the Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Canada); K. Sitcov (Foundation for Health Care Quality, Seattle, United States); A. Valek (Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary); M. R. Yanlin Liu (Mater Data and Analytics, Brisbane, Australia). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Funding Information: Funding and in-kind support: This work was supported by the International COVID-19 Data Alliance (ICODA), an initiative funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Minderoo as part of the COVID-19 Therapeutics Accelerator and convened by Health Data Research (HDR) UK, in addition to support from the HDR UK BREATHE Hub. Several ICODA partners contributed to the study, including: Cytel (statistical support), the Odd Group (data visualization) and Aridhia Informatics (development of federated analysis using a standardized protocol ([Common API] https://github.com/federated-data-sharing/) to be used in future work). Additional contributors: We acknowledge the important contributions from the following individuals: A. C. Hennemann and D. Suguitani (patient partners from Prematuridade: Brazilian Parents of Preemies’ Association, Porto Alegre, Brazil); N. Postlethwaite (implementation of processes supporting the trustworthy collection, governance and analysis of data from ICODA, HDR UK, London, UK); A. S. Babatunde (led data acquisition from University of Uyo Teaching Hospital, Uyo, Nigeria); N. Silva (data quality, revision and visualization assessment from Methods, Analytics and Technology for Health (M.A.T.H) Consortium, Belo Horizonte, Brazil); J. Söderling (data management from the Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden). We also acknowledge the following individuals who assisted with data collection efforts: R. Goemaes (Study Centre for Perinatal Epidemiology (SPE), Brussels, Belgium); C. Leroy (Le Centre d'Épidémiologie Périnatale (CEpiP), Brussels, Belgium); J. Gamba and K. Ronald (St. Francis Nsambya Hospital, Kampala, Uganda); M. Heidarzadeh (Tabriz Medical University, Tabriz, Iran); M. J. Ojeda (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile); S. Nangia (Lady Hardinge Medical College, New Delhi, India); C. Nelson, S. Metcalfe and W. Luo (Maternal Infant Health Section of the Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Canada); K. Sitcov (Foundation for Health Care Quality, Seattle, United States); A. Valek (Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary); M. R. Yanlin Liu (Mater Data and Analytics, Brisbane, Australia). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, The Author(s).Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from −90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures (‘lockdowns’). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95–0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92–0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94–1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96–1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88–1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88–1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87–1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02–1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03–1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03–1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05–1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways.Peer reviewe

Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries.

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways

Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries.

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways

Changes in preterm birth and stillbirth during COVID-19 lockdowns in 26 countries.

Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. Changes in PTB rates, ranging from -90% to +30%, were reported in many countries following early COVID-19 pandemic response measures ('lockdowns'). It is unclear whether this variation reflects real differences in lockdown impacts, or perhaps differences in stillbirth rates and/or study designs. Here we present interrupted time series and meta-analyses using harmonized data from 52 million births in 26 countries, 18 of which had representative population-based data, with overall PTB rates ranging from 6% to 12% and stillbirth ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 per 1,000 births. We show small reductions in PTB in the first (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98, P value <0.0001), second (0.96, 0.92-0.99, 0.03) and third (0.97, 0.94-1.00, 0.09) months of lockdown, but not in the fourth month of lockdown (0.99, 0.96-1.01, 0.34), although there were some between-country differences after the first month. For high-income countries in this study, we did not observe an association between lockdown and stillbirths in the second (1.00, 0.88-1.14, 0.98), third (0.99, 0.88-1.12, 0.89) and fourth (1.01, 0.87-1.18, 0.86) months of lockdown, although we have imprecise estimates due to stillbirths being a relatively rare event. We did, however, find evidence of increased risk of stillbirth in the first month of lockdown in high-income countries (1.14, 1.02-1.29, 0.02) and, in Brazil, we found evidence for an association between lockdown and stillbirth in the second (1.09, 1.03-1.15, 0.002), third (1.10, 1.03-1.17, 0.003) and fourth (1.12, 1.05-1.19, <0.001) months of lockdown. With an estimated 14.8 million PTB annually worldwide, the modest reductions observed during early pandemic lockdowns translate into large numbers of PTB averted globally and warrant further research into causal pathways

Citerne d'eau de pluie et effet sur le débit à l'exutoire du bassin versant de l'Orneau dans la région de Gembloux (Belgique)

Rainwater storage and effect on flow rate at watershed outflow. This study participates to the quantitative balance of rain water domestic use. It aims towards an optimal design of rain barrels volume, the feasibility of soil infiltration techniques with excess of water and the impact assessment of rain barrel on the decrease of peak flow in a pilot rural watershed of 9 km², considering the chronology of precipitation events. The parameters that are considered are the roofs area, the number of inhabitants in the house, the average daily rainfall water consumption, and the local pluviometry. In order to design the infiltration structure associated with the rain barrel, the volume of rainfall excess from the rain barrel needs to be evaluated. Afterwards, the infiltration structure may be dimensioned according to the soil infiltration characteristics. We assume that 75 l, out of the 115 l daily consumed by each inhabitant, are coming from the rain barrel and the remainder (40 l) is drawn from the drinking water distribution network. Calculations are carried out for roofs of 100, 135, 170 and 200 m², for a consumption of water ranging between 150 and 1,150 l per day per house and for rain barrels of 5, 10 and 20 m³. It appears that if correctly designed private rain barrel allows an opportune water use in households, the effect on flood reduction is, however, limited considering the relative low importance of the collecting surface (1.3% of the watershed surface)

Statistique des extrêmes dans les bassins faiblement jaugés : application d'un modèle global pluie-débit à cinq bassins versants en région wallonne (Belgique)

Statistics of extremes in poorly gauged basins: application of a lumped rainfall-runoff model in five catchments area in Walloon region (Belgium). The RS-PDM© model generates flows in time series on the basis of observed rainfall after self-calibration which is based on short period of observed rainfall and flow. This is done with daily or hourly data. The study highlights the capacity of the RS-PDM© model to simulate extreme flows in poorly gauged basins in Walloon region on the basis of observed rains and of a short period of observed flows. Concerning the time series, it was highlighted an important dispersion of the flows simulated for a given observed flow even for daily or hourly data. The Nash criteria varied between 0.59 and 0.92. However, the flows simulated via RS-PDM© make it possible to adjust a statistical distribution of extremes flows (Gumbel law) close to the statistic obtained with a long period of gauging. So, if the simulations realized by mean of this model present poor to acceptable performances concerning the time series simulations, they permit to obtain rapidly quite good statistics of extremes flows on the basis of a short gauging period

Impact de l'érosion sur l'envasement des barrages, la recharge des nappes phréatiques côtières et les intrusions marines dans la zone semi-aride méditerranéenne : cas du barrage de Boukourdane (Algérie)

Impact of erosion on the silting of dams, on the recharging groundwater and on coastal marine intrusion in the Mediterranean semi-arid area: Case of Boukourdane dam (Algeria). Description of the subject. Water erosion is a particularly important issue, especially in the Mediterranean and semi-arid zone. This zone is characterized by irregular rainfall patterns, which have a considerable influence on soil loss. In mountainous areas, water erosion phenomena are accentuated by steep slopes and low ground cover. The dams draining these areas undergo siltation linked to significant erosion. The silting of the dams drastically limits their capacity and thus their operating life. When used for recharging aquifers, the resuspension of fine particles may accumulate in the recharge areas and reduce infiltration capacity by clogging soil porosity. This leads to a significant reduction of groundwater levels. Additionally, groundwater situated in the coastal zone is submitted to intensive pumping. These two phenomena make groundwater particularly sensitive to marine intrusions. Objectives. This article aims, on the one hand to quantify the rate of siltation in the case of the Boukourdane dam (northern Algeria), which is used to recharge groundwater. On the other hand, the article also shows the reduction in permeability in the capturing field with the current management of releases. Method. Solid rates were set in relation to the liquid flow and sediment concentration occasionally taken from the wadi. The relation established made it possible to evaluate the solid contributions to the dam of Boukourdane. The impact of the releases on recharging the well field was evaluated by grouping wells and the well field mushrooms using heuristic k-means. Regressions were applied to the piezometric variations of each group. Results. This dam is fed by a catchment area of 156 km². Sediment transport was estimated from empirical formulas. The specific degradation rate was estimated at 366 t·km-2·year-1 during the 1993 to 2005 period. The increase in the frequency of extreme rainfall resulted in an increase in the soil erosion rate to 446 t·km-2·year-1 during the 1993 to 2013 period. The volume of sediments accumulated in the dam reached 8·104 m³·year-1 and 11·104 m³·year-1 respectively during these two periods. Conclusions. A change in the management of current releases has a positive impact on the partial restoration of the hydraulic conductivity and de facto, on the fight against marine intrusion