A new data assimilation procedure to develop a debris flow run-out model

Abstract Parameter calibration is one of the most problematic phases of numerical modeling since the choice of parameters affects the model\u2019s reliability as far as the physical problems being studied are concerned. In some cases, laboratory tests or physical models evaluating model parameters cannot be completed and other strategies must be adopted; numerical models reproducing debris flow propagation are one of these. Since scale problems affect the reproduction of real debris flows in the laboratory or specific tests used to determine rheological parameters, calibration is usually carried out by comparing in a subjective way only a few parameters, such as the heights of soil deposits calculated for some sections of the debris flows or the distance traveled by the debris flows using the values detected in situ after an event has occurred. Since no automatic or objective procedure has as yet been produced, this paper presents a numerical procedure based on the application of a statistical algorithm, which makes it possible to define, without ambiguities, the best parameter set. The procedure has been applied to a study case for which digital elevation models of both before and after an important event exist, implicating that a good database for applying the method was available. Its application has uncovered insights to better understand debris flows and related phenomena

Evaluation of maximum rockfall dimensions based on probabilistic assessment of the penetration of the sliding planes into the slope

There is intrinsic difficulty in the investigation of the largest volume of rockfalls that is expected in an area, which lies in the small number of large events, in registrable times. The maximum credible rockfall size has been associated with the properties of the rock mass discontinuities, as they delimit detachable rock blocks, and in particular with the penetration of those discontinuities that comprise rockfall sliding planes. In highly fractured rock masses, the evaluation of the penetration remains an issue. A probabilistic methodology is proposed, to measure the penetration of potential sliding planes into the interior of a rocky slope. The main hypothesis of the method is that the sliding plane persistence is interrupted along its two directions, at the intersection with two lateral discontinuity sets, as the latter displaces the former. Due to the displacement, the sliding planes are formed by quasi-planes that contain a maximum number of spacings of the intersecting joints, hence their size is restricted. The methodology requires as an input the spacing of the intersecting joint sets. Its application to a granodiorite slope confirms that for the study site, there is a maximum volume of rockfalls, excluding the possibility of large stepped failures and rupture of rock bridges. The maximum calculated persistence for the two existing sliding planes in the study site is, respectively, 28.0 m and 48.5 m. The maximum calculated sliding plane surfaces are, accordingly, 282.5 m2 and 289.3 m2. These results are compared against the observed scar dimensions at the study site, which have been retrieved alternatively, by processing a LiDAR point cloud. The results from the two alternative sources are similar, indicating that the methodology can be efficiently used to assess the sliding plane persistence and the expected maximum rockfall magnitude at the study site.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows: results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees)

Torrential flows like debris flows or debris floods are fast movements formed by a mix of water and different amounts of unsorted solid material. They generally occur in steep torrents and pose high risk in mountainous areas. Rainfall is their most common triggering factor and the analysis of the critical rainfall conditions is a fundamental research task. Due to their wide use in warning systems, rainfall thresholds for the triggering of torrential flows are an important outcome of such analysis and are empirically derived using data from past events. In 2009, a monitoring system was installed in the Rebaixader catchment, Central Pyrenees (Spain). Since then, rainfall data of 25 torrential flows (“TRIG rainfalls”) were recorded, with a 5-min sampling frequency. Other 142 rainfalls that did not trigger torrential flows (“NonTRIG rainfalls”) were also collected and analyzed. The goal of this work was threefold: (i) characterize rainfall episodes in the Rebaixader catchment and compare rainfall data that triggered torrential flows and others that did not; (ii) define and test Intensity–Duration (ID) thresholds using rainfall data measured inside the catchment by with different techniques; (iii) analyze how the criterion used for defining the rainfall duration and the spatial variability of rainfall influences the value obtained for the thresholds. The statistical analysis of the rainfall characteristics showed that the parameters that discriminate better the TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls are the rainfall intensities, the mean rainfall and the total rainfall amount. The antecedent rainfall was not significantly different between TRIG and NonTRIG rainfalls, as it can be expected when the source material is very pervious (a sandy glacial soil in the study site). Thresholds were derived from data collected at one rain gauge located inside the catchment. Two different methods were applied to calculate the duration and intensity of rainfall: (i) using total duration, Dtot, and mean intensity, Imean, of the rainfall event, and (ii) using floating durations, D, and intensities, Ifl, based on the maximum values over floating periods of different duration. The resulting thresholds are considerably different (Imean = 6.20 Dtot-0.36 and Ifl_90% = 5.49 D-0.75, respectively) showing a strong dependence on the applied methodology. On the other hand, the definition of the thresholds is affected by several types of uncertainties. Data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to analyze the uncertainty associated with the spatial variability of the triggering rainfalls. The analysis indicates that the precipitation recorded by the nearby rain gauges can introduce major uncertainties, especially for convective summer storms. Thus, incorporating radar rainfall can significantly improve the accuracy of the measured triggering rainfall. Finally, thresholds were also derived according to three different criteria for the definition of the duration of the triggering rainfall: (i) the duration until the peak intensity, (ii) the duration until the end of the rainfall; and, (iii) the duration until the trigger of the torrential flow. An important contribution of this work is the assessment of the threshold relationships obtained using the third definition of duration. Moreover, important differences are observed in the obtained thresholds, showing that ID relationships are significantly dependent on the applied methodology.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Who\u27s Flaithbhertach Macloingry?

In the November 1989 Word Ways George H. Scheetz presented a list of 51 words ending in -gry. His fascinating article piqued my interest and I immediately set out to find some additions to his list

Monitoring of rainfall and soil moisture at the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees)

The instrumental monitoring of torrential catchments is a fundamental research task and provides necessary information to improve our understanding on the mechanisms of debris flows. While most monitoring sites include meteorological sensors and analyze the critical rainfall conditions, only very few contain soil moisture measurements. In our monitoring site, the Rebaixader catchment, 11 debris flows and 24 debris floods were detected during the last nine years. Herein, the initiation mechanisms of these torrential flows were analyzed focusing on the critical rainfall conditions and the soil water dynamics. Comparing the temporal distribution of both rainfall episodes and torrential flows, the Kernel density plots showed maximum values for rainfalls at the beginning of June, while the peak for torrential flows is at July 20th. This means that highest probability of debris flows and debris floods triggering is about 1.5 months later than the one of rainstorms in the catchment. Thus, the antecedent rainfall and especially the soil moisture conditions may influence the triggering of torrential flows. In a second step, a new updated rainfall threshold was proposed including total rainfall duration and mean intensity. The analysis of soil moisture data was more complicated and no clear trends were observed in the dataset. Therefore, additional data has to be recorded in order to quantitatively analyze the role of soil moisture on the triggering of flows and for the definition of thresholds. Some preliminary results show that the soil moisture at the beginning of a rainfall event affects the maximum increase of soil moisture, while a slight trend was visible comparing the initial soil moisture with the necessary rainfall amount to trigger a torrential flow.Postprint (published version

Prosper: image and robot-guided prostate brachytherapy

Brachytherapy for localized prostate cancer consists in destroying cancer by introducing iodine radioactive seeds into the gland through hollow needles. The planning of the position of the seeds and their introduction into the prostate is based on intra-operative ultrasound (US) imaging. We propose to optimize the global quality of the procedure by: i) using 3D US; ii) enhancing US data with MRI registration; iii) using a specially designed needle-insertion robot, connected to the imaging data. The imaging methods have been successfully tested on patient data while the robot accuracy has been evaluated on a realistic deformable phantom

Spatiotemporal evolution, mineralogical composition, and transport mechanisms of long-runout landslides in Valles Marineris, Mars

Long-runout landslides with transport distances of >50 km are ubiquitous in Valles Marineris (VM), yet the transport mechanisms remain poorly understood. Four decades of studies reveal significant variation in landslide morphology and emplacement age, but how these variations are related to landslide transport mechanisms is not clear. In this study, we address this question by conducting systematic geological mapping and compositional analysis of VM long-runout landslides using high-resolution Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter imagery and spectral data. Our work shows that: (1) a two-zone morphological division (i.e., an inner zone characterized by rotated blocks and an outer zone expressed by a thin sheet with a nearly flat surface) characterizes all major VM landslides; (2) landslide mobility is broadly dependent on landslide mass; and (3) the maximum width of the outer zone and its transport distance are inversely related to the basal friction that was estimated from the surface slope angle of the outer zone. Our comprehensive Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) compositional analysis indicates that hydrated silicates are common in landslide outer zones and nearby trough-floor deposits. Furthermore, outer zones containing hydrated minerals are sometimes associated with longer runout and increased lateral spreading compared to those without detectable hydrated minerals. Finally, with one exception we find that hydrated minerals are absent in the inner zones of the investigated VM landslides. These results as whole suggest that hydrated minerals may have contributed to the magnitude of lateral spreading and long-distance forward transport of major VM landslides

Discussion to: ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli

The paper ‘Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses’ by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli deals with a sensitive topic for landslide risk management. Exploring the pre-failure behaviour of four different case histories, the authors proposed standard procedures for the application of the inverse velocity method (INV, Fukuzono 1985). Specifically, they suggested guidelines for the filtering of velocity data and an original and simple approach to automatically set the first and the second alarm thresholds using the inverse velocity method. The present discussion addresses three different topics: (1) data filter selection according to the features of monitoring instrument; (2) the importance of data sampling frequency for the forecasting analysis and (3) the influence of the starting point (SP in this discussion) for the application of INV analysis. Moreover, based on this matter, a new method is proposed to update the INV analysis on an ongoing basis

Escándalo en Budapest

Este texto fue publicado por el New York Review ofBooks en septiembre de 2006. Es el primero de una secuencia de escritos que trata sobre el revisionismo histórico. Aparece por cortesía de su autor Itsvan Déak

Design of active debris flow mitigation measures: a comprehensive analysis of existing impact models

Debris flows occur in mountainous areas characterized by steep slope and occasional severe rainstorms. The massive urbanization in these areas raised the importance of studying and mitigating these phenomena. Concerning the strategy of protection, it is fundamental to evaluate both the effect of the magnitude (that concerns the definition of the hazard), in terms of mobilized volume and travel distance, and the best technical protection structures (that concerns the mitigation measures) to reduce the existing risk to an acceptable residual one. In particular, the mitigation measure design requires the evaluation of the effects of debris flow impact forces against them. In other words, once it is established that mitigation structures are required, the impacting pressure shall be evaluated and it should be verified that it does not exceed barrier resistance. In this paper, the author wants to focus on the definition and the evaluation of the impacting load of debris flows on protection structures: a critical review of main existing models and equations treated in scientific literature is here presented. Although most of these equations are based on solid physical basis, they are always affected by an empirical nature due to the presence of coefficients for fitting the numerical results with laboratory and, less frequently, field data. The predicting capability of these equations, namely the capability of fitting experimental/field data, is analysed and evaluated using ten different datasets available in scientific literature. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the existing debris flow impact models, highlighting their strong points and limits. Moreover, this paper could have a practical aspect by helping engineers in the choice of the best technical solution and the safe design of debris flow protection structures. Existing design guidelines for debris flow protection barrier have been analysed. Finally, starting from the analysis of the hydro-static model response to fit field data and introducing some practical assumptions, an empirical formula is proposed for taking into account the dynamic effects of the phenomenon