Seasonal Adjustment with Measurement Error Present

Seasonal adjustment procedures attempt to estimate the sample realizations of an unobservable economic time series in the presence of both seasonal factors and irregular factors. In this paper we consider a factor which has not been considered explicitly in previous treatments of seasonal adjustment: measurement error. Because of the sample design used in the CPS, measurement error will not be a white noise process, but instead it will be characterized by serial correlation of a known form. We first consider what effect the serially correlated measurement error has on estimation of the non-seasonal component in seasonal adjustment models. We also consider the effect of measurement error on the widely used seasonal adjustment process X11. X11 which is the seasonal adjust procedure used by the BLS will implicitly reduce the effect of measurement error because of the averaging process used. However, this treatment will not be optimal in general. We therefore specify a seasonal adjustment model which takes explicit account of the measurement error. For examples on the unemployment rate, we find that X11 does almost as well as the optimal filter on some series but its efficiency is less than 10% for the teenage unemployment series. We also find that optimal treatment of the measurement error which accounts for the serial correlation can reduce the overall mean square error of the seasonally adjusted series below the variance of the measurement error which is often used as the benchmark for the sampling procedure.

Characterising exo-ringsystems around fast-rotating stars using the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect

Planetary rings produce a distinct shape distortion in transit lightcurves. However, to accurately model such lightcurves the observations need to cover the entire transit, especially ingress and egress, as well as an out-of-transit baseline. Such observations can be challenging for long period planets, where the transits may last for over a day. Planetary rings will also impact the shape of absorption lines in the stellar spectrum, as the planet and rings cover different parts of the rotating star (the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect). These line-profile distortions depend on the size, structure, opacity, obliquity and sky projected angle of the ring system. For slow rotating stars, this mainly impacts the amplitude of the induced velocity shift, however, for fast rotating stars the large velocity gradient across the star allows the line distortion to be resolved, enabling direct determination of the ring parameters. We demonstrate that by modeling these distortions we can recover ring system parameters (sky-projected angle, obliquity and size) using only a small part of the transit. Substructure in the rings, e.g. gaps, can be recovered if the width of the features ($\delta W$) relative to the size of the star is similar to the intrinsic velocity resolution (set by the width of the local stellar profile, $\gamma$) relative to the stellar rotation velocity ($v$ sin$i$, i.e. $\delta W / R_* \gtrsim v$sin$i$/$\gamma$). This opens up a new way to study the ring systems around planets with long orbital periods, where observations of the full transit, covering the ingress and egress, are not always feasible.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Titanocene anticancer complexes and their binding mode of action to human serum albumin: a computational study

Due to the pivotal role played by human serum albumin (HSA) in the transport and cytotoxicity of titanocene complexes, a docking study has been performed on a selected set of titanocene complexes to aid in the current understanding of the potential mode of action of these titanocenes upon binding HSA. Analysis of the docking results has revealed potential binding at the known drug binding sites in HSA and has provided some explanation for the specificity and subsequent cytotoxicity of these titanocenes. Additionally, a new alternative binding site for these titanocenes has been postulated

Localized spectral asymptotics for boundary value problems and correlation effects in the free Fermi gas in general domains

We rigorously derive explicit formulae for the pair correlation function of the ground state of the free Fermi gas in the thermodynamic limit for general geometries of the macroscopic regions occupied by the particles and arbitrary dimension. As a consequence we also establish the asymptotic validity of the local density approximation for the corresponding exchange energy. At constant density these formulae are universal and do not depend on the geometry of the underlying macroscopic domain. In order to identify the correlation effects in the thermodynamic limit, we prove a local Weyl law for the spectral asymptotics of the Laplacian for certain quantum observables which are themselves dependent on a small parameter under very general boundary conditions

Microscopic resolution broadband dielectric spectroscopy

Results are presented for a non-contact measurement system capable of micron level spatial resolution. It utilises the novel electric potential sensor (EPS) technology, invented at Sussex, to image the electric field above a simple composite dielectric material. EP sensors may be regarded as analogous to a magnetometer and require no adjustments or offsets during either setup or use. The sample consists of a standard glass/epoxy FR4 circuit board, with linear defects machined into the surface by a PCB milling machine. The sample is excited with an a.c. signal over a range of frequencies from 10 kHz to 10 MHz, from the reverse side, by placing it on a conducting sheet connected to the source. The single sensor is raster scanned over the surface at a constant working distance, consistent with the spatial resolution, in order to build up an image of the electric field, with respect to the reference potential. The results demonstrate that both the surface defects and the internal dielectric variations within the composite may be imaged in this way, with good contrast being observed between the glass mat and the epoxy resin

Procedure Planning for Science Activities

This procedure establishes responsibilities and process for preparation, review, approval, revision/cancellation, and distribution of work plans for scientific investigation activities, including modeling, scientific laboratory and field testing activities, scientific analyses, and other science related documents and technical products. Plans for other activities may be completed in accordance with the requirements of this procedure, as directed by management

Defining the gap between research and practice in public relations programme evaluation - towards a new research agenda

The current situation in public relations programme evaluation is neatly summarized by McCoy who commented that 'probably the most common buzzwords in public relations in the last ten years have been evaluation and accountability' (McCoy 2005, 3). This paper examines the academic and practitioner-based literature and research on programme evaluation and it detects different priorities and approaches that may partly explain why the debate on acceptable and agreed evaluation methods continues. It analyses those differences and proposes a research agenda to bridge the gap and move the debate forward