Planning as a learning process : a strategy for planning land use programmes at local level with special reference to the uplands of Java

IntroductionThe challenge for land use management in the nineties is to initiate a people- centered development process which creates opportunities for local people to make their own choices about which development strategy to follow. This need is felt in particular for upland areas where government initiated blue- print programmes for land use management have a record of failure. The major reason is that these programmes are often not adjusted to cope with the complexity and diversity of the uplands. Land use management encompasses both short-term and longterm benefits and is confronted with rapid changes. The differing role of private, state and communal lands in combination with a complex system of control and utilization makes land use management difficult to fully understand. This study responds with the development of an alternative strategy for planning sustainable land use programmes at local level and has the following objectives:- to develop a strategic model for people-centered planning of sustainable land use programmes;- to develop a flexible planning method that can serve as land use management tool at local level;- to test the feasibility of the strategy for the uplands of East Java, Indonesia.Strategic modelThe two major principles of the strategic model are:- Programmes are planned and implemented through a learning process in a local and organizational dimension. The local dimension includes a learning process of planning, implementing and monitoring of small scale programmes. The planning process is short, but planned interventions are regularly adjusted based on new insights and changing conditions. In the organizational dimension the learning process proceeds through three different phases of trial, development and expansion. In this dimension, the government can learn how to manage the strategy of implementing local level planning and how to change attitudes, norms and organizational competence of organizations in order to do so. This dimension embraces local, regional and national governments.- Three major variables have to be considered in programme planning: land use system; interventions and organizations. Sustainable land use programmes are only possible if a good fit between these variables is achieved.In the strategic model these two principles are combined; a fit between the variables is achieved through a learning process. Because achieving a fit between the three variables is a complicated matter, it requires a phased approach which consists of the following three steps: a trial phase, a development phase and an expansion phase. In the trial phase, the focus is on achieving a fit between interventions and land use system in the local dimension. This is achieved through the implementation of trial cases in local level planning in which villagers, field workers of organizations and local leaders become acquainted with this new approach of planning sustainable land use programmes at a local level. In the development phase, attention is focused on achieving a fit between organizations and land use system. Through the development of human resources and extension processes the skills and attitudes of those involved may gradually change to become more people-oriented. In the expansion phase the focus is on achieving a fit between interventions and organization. In this phase the planning approach is accepted and applied at a national level. Changes in government structures and procedures, such as decentralization and strengthening of local leadership need to be achieved. By dividing the process into phases, the complex problems associated with planning sustainable land use become manageable, and step by step the ultimate goal of achieving a fit between all three variables can be reached.Planning methodIn order to reach an optimal fit between the three variables of the strategic model in the trial phase, a planning method should be applied to collect and analyse data that can be transformed into the design of effective programmes. No 'off-the-peg' planning method is available, instead a combination of existing approaches, methods and techniques is needed.Three development approaches can be distinguished to this end: planning of land use development; extension approaches and project management approaches. Generally speaking, each approach covers a different side of the strategic model. Land use development focuses on achieving a fit between interventions and land use system; extension processes can be used in achieving a fit between land use system and organizations; and the fit between interventions and organizations can be accomplished with the help of project management techniques.For planning land use development in the trial phase a number of current methods and techniques are discussed. These are Farming System Analysis, Land Evaluation, Agroecosystem Analysis, Landscape Planning, Rapid Rural Appraisal and Gender Analysis. The criteria set by the strategic model determine which aspects of these present planning methods and techniques are useful for the development of a new planning method. None of these methods and techniques as such are ideal as an operational planning method for realizing the first phase of the strategic model. A synthesis of all useful features into a new land use planning method is proposed.For the trial phase the focus is on planning land use development while opportunities to develop extension processes and to influence project management are limited. Therefore plans should basically be tailored to the existing competence of organizations. Within these limitations some attention can be paid to extension processes and management techniques by introducing an additional step to land use planning, called programming which includes the preparation of a detailed design and a programme planning matrix.Planning environment on JavaThe environment for the planning of land use development programmes is diverse and complex in the uplands of East Java. Farmers react to the wide diversity in the land use system by developing a large number of different land use strategies. By contrast, government organizations use standardized programmes with uniform and mostly inflexible procedures for planning and implementation. Village development planning procedures exist, but do not yet function properly. Local organizations responsible for village development planning do not yet possess the skills and capability to develop such plans, and centrally organized sectoral agencies still dominate this 'bottom-up' planning process. The dominance of the central government can be explained by the incorporation of a number of socio-cultural features in their policy, such as the principles of 'sole authority', consensus, and harmony. The government uses these principles to encapsulate autonomous local organizations in the government administration, orienting the local leaders more to government rules and procedures than to the needs of the local population.This orientation towards government administration has two major implications for the current planning of interventions. Firstly, the interventions are adjusted to the competence of implementing organizations rather than letting the organizations develop their competence to implement the tasks of locally planned interventions. Secondly little more than lip-service is paid to the participation of villagers in planning.Notwithstanding these shortcomings in the present village development planning process, official government policy has some room for improvement. This may allow for a more balanced planning process new approach.Secondly, constraints which can be expected while applying the model on Java are described. The feasibility of the trial phase of the strategy is evaluated based on experiences with implementing the trial cases on Java. In this evaluation the question is raised as to what extent the results of local level planning on Java can respond to the research objectives as formulated at the start of this study. No experience has been gained as yet with implementing the development and expansion phase. One programme that provides some valuable lessons for the feasibility of the phased learning process of the strategic model is the Java Social Forestry Programme (JSFP). This programme has followed a comparable phasing strategy and has already reached the expansion phase.Conclusions and policy recommendationsThis evaluation results in a number of conclusions on conditions to be fulfilled for successful implementation of the strategy. To sum up:- although the strategy is aimed at the local level, it cannot be realized at local level only as it requires involvement of regional and national government organizations to deal with changing communication processes and organizational structure;- objectives in village development planning should be set realistically in the knowledge that short term results will always dominate long term benefits, tangible results will get higher priority than social changes, while top-down influences from sectoral agencies will prevail;- in addressing the organizational dimension a choice should be made between following an approach of 'decentralized trial cases' versus 'centrally guided bottom-up process'. Whichever strategy is chosen it needs careful management to avoid difficulties in institutionalization or a too rapid expansion respectively;- it is necessary for the government to be shown better results in terms of sustainable land use development programmes at local level implemented by highly committed villagers. Only then may they be motivated to accept such a participatory approach at the cost of losing some power or consensus;- implementing a participatory planning process is an initially slow process, to which government agencies need to be committed.These conditions are translated into a number of policy recommendations for donor agencies and governments pertaining to: long-term and continuous commitment; development of the management capacity and motivation of people involved; and strengthening the competence of a government organization for responsive governance.Experiences in Java have illustrated the importance of congruence between the design of land use interventions; the development of communication processes and the development of organizational competence. The whole range of actors involved who strive for sustainable land use - from villagers to programme managers - will have to contribute to achieving this fit. They will only be able so when they view PLANNING AS A LEARNING PROCESS

Mean Reversion in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the 20th Century

This paper analyzes mean reversion in international stock markets during the period 1900-2008, using annual data. Our panel of stock indexes in seventeen developed countries, covering a time span of more than a century, allows us to analyze in detail the dynamics of the mean-reversion process. In the period 1900-2008 it takes stock prices about 13.8 years, on average, to absorb half of a shock. However, using a rolling-window approach we establish large fluctuations in the speed of mean reversion over time. The highest mean reversion speed is found for the period including the Great Depression and the start of World War II. Furthermore, the early years of the Cold War and the period covering the Oil Crisis of 1973, the Energy Crisis of 1979 and Black Monday in 1987 are also characterized by relatively fast mean reversion. Overall, we document half-lives ranging from a minimum of 2.1 years to a maximum of 23.8 years. In a substantial number of time periods no significant mean reversion is found at all, which underlines the fact that the choice of data sample contributes substantially to the evidence in favor of mean reversion. Our results suggest that the speed at which stocks revert to their fundamental value is higher in periods of high economic uncertainty, caused by major economic and political events.mean reversion, market efficiency

A Common Origin for Quasar Extended Emission-Line Regions and Their Broad-Line Regions

We present a correlation between the presence of luminous extended emission-line regions (EELRs) and the metallicity of the broad-line regions (BLRs) of low-redshift quasars. The result is based on ground-based [O III] 5007 narrow-band imaging and Hubble Space Telescope UV spectra of 12 quasars at 0.20 < z < 0.45. Quasars showing luminous EELRs have low-metallicity BLRs (Z < 0.6 Z_Solar), while the remaining quasars show typical metal-rich gas (Z > Z_Solar). Previous studies have shown that EELRs themselves also have low metallicities (Z < 0.5 Z_Solar). The correlation between the occurrence of EELRs and the metallicity of the BLRs, strengthened by the sub-Solar metallicity in both regions, indicates a common external origin for the gas, almost certainly from the merger of a gas-rich galaxy. Our results provide the first direct observational evidence that the gas from a merger can indeed be driven down to the immediate vicinity (< 1 pc) of the central black hole.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters. 4 pages, 1 figure, 1 tabl

Ontwikkeling en implementatie van geïntegreerde bestrijding in zomerbloemen : toepassing van beschikbare producten en ontwikkeling van nieuwe natuurlijke vijanden

In 2008 en 2009 werden loslatingen verricht van de roofmijten Neoseiulus cucumeris en Amblyseius andersoni, soms aangevuld met Phytoseiulus persimilis, in de zomerbloemen rozenbottel, chrysant, Veronica, Alchemilla en Delphinium. Hierbij bleek dat roofmijten zich niet in alle gewassen in gelijke mate vestigen. In Alchemilla en Delphinium bleek al spontaan Neoseiulus cucumeris voor te kunnen komen. Als in deze gewassen nog geen roofmijten voorkomen, zal introductie van N. cucumeris zeker slagen, mits er geen breedwerkende middelen worden toegepast. Vooral Alchemilla bleek een goede roofmijtenplant te zijn. Behalve Neoseiulus cucumeris werden ook andere soorten gevonden. Roofmijten die in de handel zijn tegen spint, Phytoseiulus persimilis en Neoseiulus californicus, vestigen zich eveneens goed in dit gewas, in tegenstelling tot Amblyseius andersoni. Verder kunnen spontaan andere natuurlijke vijanden van plagen voorkomen: roofwantsen, gaasvliegen en galmuggen. Trips nam in beide jaren af gedurende de teelt of bleef op een laag niveau. Neoseiulus alpinus is een roofmijt, die eerder is verzameld van Alchemilla en in kweek genomen. Een loslating van deze roofmijt in Alchemilla slaagde in 2008 niet, maar in 2009 wel. In Delphinium was in 2008 vanaf het begin van de waarnemingen Neoseiulus cucumeris in het gewas aanwezig. Na introductie van Amblyseius andersoni werd ook deze soort teruggevonden. Spint kwam in 2008 niet tot ontwikkeling. Buiten de proef kwam plaatselijk cyclamenmijt voor. In 2009 werd in Delphinium zwavel verdampt tegen echte meeldauw. Er was geen goede vestiging van roofmijten in het gewas, ook niet van de roofmijt Phytoseiulus persimilis, waardoor chemische bestrijding van spint noodzakelijk was. In Veronica, chrysant en rozenbottel kwamen in vergelijking met Alchemilla en Delphinium minder roofmijten voor. Trips en spint waren in 2008 en 2009 geen probleem in Veronica, chrysant en rozenbottel. Op rozenbottel kwam zonder introductie Neoseiulus cucumeris voor. Andere soorten roofmijten, die soms spontaan optraden waren Neoseiulus reductus in Delphinium, Amblyseius graminis in Alchemilla en chrysant, en roofmijten die tot een andere groep (Bdelloidea) behoren, met name op chrysant en Veronica

Development after Displacement: Evaluating the Utility of OpenStreetMap Data for Monitoring Sustainable Development Goal Progress in Refugee Settlements

In 2015, 193 countries declared their commitment to “leave no one behind” in pursuit of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the world’s refugees have been routinely excluded from national censuses and representative surveys, and, as a result, have broadly been overlooked in SDG evaluations. In this study, we examine the potential of OpenStreetMap (OSM) data for monitoring SDG progress in refugee settlements. We collected all available OSM data in 28 refugee and 26 nearby non-refugee settlements in the major refugee-hosting country of Uganda. We created a novel SDG-OSM data model, measured the spatial and temporal coverages of SDG-relevant OSM data across refugee settlements, and compared these results to non-refugee settlements. We found 11 different SDGs represented across 92% (21,950) of OSM data in refugee settlements, compared to 78% (1919 nodes) in non-refugee settlements. However, most data were created three years after refugee arrival, and 81% of OSM data in refugee settlements were never edited, both of which limit the potential for long-term monitoring of SDG progress. In light of our findings, we offer suggestions for improving OSM-driven SDG monitoring in refugee settlements that have relevance for development and humanitarian practitioners and research communities alike

Influenza in long-term Dutch travelers in the tropics: symptoms and infections

Influenza is a common infection among travelers, and attack rates are well documented in short-term travelers and holiday makers. Little data exists on long-term, non-expatriate travelers. This was a prospective mono-centre study of immunocompetent, Dutch travelers aged ≥18 to 64 years. It was conducted at the Public Health Service travel clinic in Amsterdam from December 2008 to September 2011, and included all travelers intending to travel to a tropical or sub-tropical country. Among 602 Dutch long-term travelers to tropical regions, 82 % had protective influenza antibody titres pre-travel. The influenza attack rate of serologically confirmed infection during travel was 15 %, and of symptomatic infection was 6.3 % (fever alone) and 2 % (ILI), respectively. The attack rate in this study is similar to seasonal rates of infection in the general population. Influenza vaccination pre-travel is therefore most important for people at risk of medical complications due to influenz

Growth of children with Langerhans cell histiocytosis

Conclusion: GH deficiency is not a common manifestation of LCH in childhood and GH provocation tests are only indicated when there is a poor or decelerating growth rate. In our patients the number of organs involved and/or the treatment modality did not influence the growth in all but one. Diseases in childhood have an impact on growth. The influence of Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) on growth has never been studied well. Recently a patient with LCH was treated with human growth hormone (GH) because of severe GH deficiency due to LCH involvement of both the hypothalamus and pituitary. This led us to review our charts from 1971 onward for evaluation of the growth patterns in patients with LCH. Here the long-term growth of 22 patients with LCH is reported, the median follow up being 7 years and 1 month. The height data were converted into standard deviation scores (SDS). At diagnosis the mean SDS of patients with isolated LCH at diagnosis was 0.04 and -0.37 in patients with disseminated LCH. Of the total group, 12 patients did not show any influence from the LCH or therapy on their growth. The remaining 10 patients reached, after a minimum of 3 years, a percentile clearly higher than that at diagnosis. However all the ten above mentioned patients, either isolated or disseminated LCH, had a lesion in the facial side of the skull

Damped Lyman alpha Absorbing Galaxies At Low Redshifts z<1 From Hierarchical Galaxy Formation Models

We investigate Damped Ly-alpha absorbing galaxies (DLA galaxies) at low redshifts z<1 in the hierarchical structure formation scenario to clarify the nature of DLA galaxies because observational data of such galaxies mainly at low redshifts are currently available. We find that our model well reproduces distributions of fundamental properties of DLA galaxies such as luminosities, column densities, impact parameters obtained by optical and near-infrared imagings. Our results suggest that DLA systems primarily consist of low luminosity galaxies with small impact parameters (typical radius about 3 kpc, surface brightness from 22 to 27 mag arcsec^{-2}) similar to low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies. In addition, we investigate selection biases arising from the faintness and from the masking effect which prevents us from identifying a DLA galaxy hidden or contaminated by a point spread function of a background quasar. We find that the latter affects the distributions of DLA properties more seriously rather than the former, and that the observational data are well reproduced only when taking into account the masking effect. The missing rate of DLA galaxies by the masking effect attains 60-90 % in the sample at redshift 0<z<1 when an angular size limit is as small as 1 arcsec. Furthermore we find a tight correlation between HI mass and cross section of DLA galaxies, and also find that HI-rich galaxies with M(HI) \sim 10^{9} M_sun dominate DLA systems. These features are entirely consistent with those from the Arecibo Dual-Beam Survey which is a blind 21 cm survey. Finally we discuss star formation rates, and find that they are typically about 10^{-2} M_sun yr^{-1} as low as those in LSB galaxies.Comment: 21 pages, 13 figures, Accepted for publication in Astrophsical Journa

The range and extent of the Vallesian Crisis (Late Miocene): new prospects based on the micromammal record from the Vallès-Penedès basin (Catalonia, Spain)

The Vallesian Crisis was initially recognized as a local event, which implied the extinction of certain rodent and artiodactyl genera coincidingwith the early/late Vallesian boundary (at 9.7 Ma). Following works increased the range and extent of this event to encompass allEurope and involve a great number of mammal taxa. Here, we analyze the Vallesian rodent and insectivore record of the Vallès-Penedèsbasin (Catalonia, Spain), where the crisis was first recognized. We show that the quality of the record before the crisis is comparativelymuch better than afterwards so diversity appears inflated and extinction rates are overrated. Accordingly, we used inferred taxon rangesand rarefaction to calculate new diversity measures independent of sample size. These measures virtually eliminate the Vallesian Crisis,showing that diversity somewhat decreased during the earliest late Vallesian and soon recovered afterwards. This is because it cannot bediscarded that several rare taxa, customarily said to have disappeared during the crisis, are in fact present. Amongst the rodents and insectivores,these taxa include genera that are generally rare and show a discontinuous record during the early Vallesian. These are presumedspecialists adapted to humid forested environments such as flying squirrels, beavers or certain dormice, most of them being only recordedwhen the sample size is large enough. Alternatively, these genera may have been associated to very specific habitats which, for an unknownreason, are not sampled during the late Vallesian. Our results cast serious doubts on the very existence of the Vallesian Crisis suggesting thatrather than an abrupt event a series of extinctions occurred during a longer time span. It has not been evaluated whether the same patternis observed in the case of large mammals and in other areas. However, our results show that biases introduced by the quality of the recordneed to be taken into account when assessing the extent of the event.La Crisis Vallesiense fue inicialmente definida como un fenómeno local que implicó la desaparición de ciertos géneros de roedores y artio­dáctilos coincidiendo con el límite entre Vallesiense inferior y superior (hace 9.7 Ma). Trabajos posteriores ampliaron el ámbito y alcance de este evento hasta incluir toda Europa e implicar un gran número de taxones de mamíferos. En este trabajo analizamos el registro Vallesiense de roedores e insectívoros de la cuenca del Vallès-Penedès (Cataluña, España), donde la crisis fue reconocida por primera vez. Se muestra que la calidad del registro fósil con anterioridad a la crisis es comparativamente mucho mejor que la de después de modo que se magnifica la diversidad y se exageran las tasas de extinción. Por lo tanto, se ha utilizado rarefacción y se han inferido rangos estratigráficos a fin de calcular nuevas medidas de diversidad independientes del tamaño de la muestra. Estas medidas eliminan virtualmente la Crisis Vallesiense, mostrando que la diversidad disminuyó a principios del Vallesiense superior para recuperarse poco después a finales de esta edad. Esto es debido a que no podemos descartar que diversos taxones poco abundantes, normalmente citados como víctimas de la crisis, estuvieran de hecho presentes. Entre los roedores e insectívoros dichos taxones incluyen géneros que son generalmente raros y que muestran un registro discontinuo durante el Vallesiense inferior. Se trata de supuestos especialistas adaptados a ambientes boscosos húmedos tales como ardillas voladoras, castores o ciertos lirones, la mayoría de los cuales sólo se encuentran cuando el tamaño de la muestra es lo suficientemente grande. Alternativamente, estos géneros podrían haber estado asociados a hábitats muy específicos que por algún motivo no están siendo muestrea­dos durante el Vallesiense superior. Nuestros resultados cuestionan seriamente la existencia de la Crisis Vallesiense y sugieren que en lugar de un evento abrupto podría tratarse de una serie de extinciones que habrían sucedido durante un período más largo. Queda pendiente de evaluación si el mismo patrón se observa en el caso de los grandes mamíferos y en otras áreas. No obstante nuestros resultados muestran que se deberían tomar en consideración las desviaciones introducidas por la calidad del registro al analizar el alcance de este evento