Old Tools, New Ways of Using Them: Harnessing Expert Opinions to Plan for Surprise in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems

Copyright © 2019 Gladstone-Gallagher, Hope, Bulmer, Clark, Stephenson, Mangan, Rullens, Siwicka, Thomas, Pilditch, Savage and Thrush. With globally accelerating rates of environmental disturbance, coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly prone to non-linear regime shifts that result in a loss of ecosystem function and services. A lack of early-detection methods, and an over reliance on limits-based approaches means that these tipping points manifest as surprises. Consequently, marine ecosystems are notoriously difficult to manage, and scientists, managers, and policy makers are paralyzed in a spiral of ecosystem degradation. This paralysis is caused by the inherent need to quantify the risk and uncertainty that surrounds every decision. While progress toward forecasting tipping points is ongoing and important, an interim approach is desperately needed to enable scientists to make recommendations that are credible and defensible in the face of deep uncertainty. We discuss how current tools for developing risk assessments and scenario planning, coupled with expert opinions, can be adapted to bridge gaps in quantitative data, enabling scientists and managers to prepare for many plausible futures. We argue that these tools are currently underutilized in a marine cumulative effects context but offer a way to inform decisions in the interim while predictive models and early warning signals remain imperfect. This approach will require redefining the way we think about managing for ecological surprise to include actions that not only limit drivers of tipping points but increase socio-ecological resilience to yield satisfactory outcomes under multiple possible futures that are inherently uncertain

Social-ecological connections across land, water, and sea demand a reprioritization of environmental management

Despite many sectors of society striving for sustainability in environmental management, humans often fail to identify and act on the connections and processes responsible for social-ecological tipping points. Part of the problem is the fracturing of environmental management and social-ecological research into ecosystem domains (land, freshwater, and sea), each with different scales and resolution of data acquisition and distinct management approaches. We present a perspective on the social-ecological connections across ecosystem domains that emphasize the need for management reprioritization to effectively connect these domains. We identify critical nexus points related to the drivers of tipping points, scales of governance, and the spatial and temporal dimensions of social-ecological processes. We combine real-world examples and a simple dynamic model to illustrate the implications of slow management responses to environmental impacts that traverse ecosystem domains. We end with guidance on management and research opportunities that arise from this cross-domain lens to foster greater opportunity to achieve environmental and sustainability goals.Peer reviewe

In silico modeling of the specific inhibitory potential of thiophene-2,3-dihydro-1,5-benzothiazepine against BChE in the formation of β-amyloid plaques associated with Alzheimer's disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alzheimer's disease, known to be associated with the gradual loss of memory, is characterized by low concentration of acetylcholine in the hippocampus and cortex part of the brain. Inhibition of acetylcholinesterase has successfully been used as a drug target to treat Alzheimer's disease but drug resistance shown by butyrylcholinesterase remains a matter of concern in treating Alzheimer's disease. Apart from the many other reasons for Alzheimer's disease, its association with the genesis of fibrils by β-amyloid plaques is closely related to the increased activity of butyrylcholinesterase. Although few data are available on the inhibition of butyrylcholinesterase, studies have shown that that butyrylcholinesterase is a genetically validated drug target and its selective inhibition reduces the formation of β-amyloid plaques.</p> <p>Rationale</p> <p>We previously reported the inhibition of cholinesterases by 2,3-dihydro-1, 5-benzothiazepines, and considered this class of compounds as promising inhibitors for the cure of Alzheimer's disease. One compound from the same series, when substituted with a hydroxy group at C-3 in ring A and 2-thienyl moiety as ring B, showed greater activity against butyrylcholinesterase than to acetylcholinesterase. To provide insight into the binding mode of this compound (Compound A), molecular docking in combination with molecular dynamics simulation of 5000 ps in an explicit solvent system was carried out for both cholinesterases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Molecular docking studies revealed that the potential of Compound A to inhibit cholinesterases was attributable to the cumulative effects of strong hydrogen bonds, cationic-π, π-π interactions and hydrophobic interactions. A comparison of the docking results of Compound A against both cholinesterases showed that amino acid residues in different sub-sites were engaged to stabilize the docked complex. The relatively high affinity of Compound A for butyrylcholinesterase was due to the additional hydrophobic interaction between the 2-thiophene moiety of Compound A and Ile69. The involvement of one catalytic triad residue (His438) of butyrylcholinesterase with the 3'-hydroxy group on ring A increases the selectivity of Compound A. C-C bond rotation around ring A also stabilizes and enhances the interaction of Compound A with butyrylcholinesterase. Furthermore, the classical network of hydrogen bonding interactions as formed by the catalytic triad of butyrylcholinesterase is disturbed by Compound A. This study may open a new avenue for structure-based drug design for Alzheimer's disease by considering the 3D-pharmacophoric features of the complex responsible for discriminating these two closely-related cholinesterases.</p

Kwasowość tłuszczu kakaowego jako funkcja jakości ziarna i warunków jego przerobu

It was found that bean humidity as well as the combined effect of mouldiness, share of small and violet beans, and fermentation coefficient have considerable bearing on the acidity of fat. During the processing of cocoa beans the acidity of fat changes, and the direction of these changes depends on the processing stage.Badano jakość surowego ziarna kakaowego (34 partie) pochodzącego z PPC,,Gryf" w Szczecinie oraz wpływ wybranych cech jakościowych tego ziarna (wilgotność, udziały ziarn zapleśniałych wewnętrznie, drobnych i fioletowych, współczynnik przefermentowania) na kwasowość tłuszczu kakaowego. Kwasowość tłuszczu w badanym ziarnie kakaowym znajdowała się w przedziale 0,57-1,75% kwasu oleinowego, natomiast średnie wartości dla analizowanych cech jakościowych wynosiły: wilgotność 5,56%, udział ziarn drobnych 13,47%, zapleśniałych wewnętrznie 1,63%, fioletowych 6,88% i współczynnik przefermentowania 1,02. Wyniki badań wykazały, że na kwasowość tłuszczu w surowym ziarnie kakaowym statystycznie istotny wpływ wywiera wilgotność oraz łącznie pozostałe cechy jakościowe. Zależności te obrazuje funkcja regresji: y = 0,17 x + 0,15, w której: y - kwasowość tłuszczu, x – wilgotność ziarna surowego. W trakcie przerobu ziarna kakaowego kwasowość tłuszczu w uzyskiwanych półproduktach zmienia się, co potwierdzają statystycznie istotne różnice przy poziomie istotności α = 0,05 między kwasowościami tłuszczu w ziarnie surowym i śrucie kakaowej oraz w śrucie i miazdze. Na etapie zolejania miazgi kakaowej zmiany kwasowości zmierzają do zbliżenia się do średniego poziomu, stwierdzonego w ziarnie surowym. O tendencji takiej świadczy brak statystycznie istotnych różnic w średniej kwasowości tłuszczu między ziarnem surowym i miazgą