A retrospective time trend study of firearm and nonfirearm homicide in Cape Town from 1994 to 2013

Background. Gunshot injuries from interpersonal violence are a major cause of mortality. In South Africa (SA), the Firearms Control Act of 2000 sought to address firearm violence by removing illegally owned firearms from circulation, stricter regulation of legally owned firearms, and stricter licensing requirements. Over the last few years, varied implementation of the Act and police corruption have increased firearm availability.Objectives. To investigate whether changes in firearm availability in SA were associated with changes in firearm homicide rates.Methods. This was a retrospective time trend study (1994 - 2013) using postmortem data. Time trends of firearm and non-firearm homicide rates were analysed with generalised linear models. Distinct time periods for temporal trends were assigned based on a priori assumptions regarding changes in the availability of firearms.Results. Firearm and non-firearm homicide rates adjusted for age, sex and race exhibited different temporal trends. Non-firearm homicide rates either decreased or remained stable over the entire period. Firearm homicide increased at 13% annually from 1994 through 2000, and decreased by 15% from 2003 through 2006, corresponding with changes in firearm availability in 2001, 2003, 2007 and 2011. A 21% annual increase in firearm homicide after 2010 coincided with police fast-tracking new firearm licence applications. Cape Town’s coloured population experienced a significantly greater increase than other population groups following additional exposure to illegal firearms from 2007.Conclusions. The strong association between firearm availability and homicide, and the reversal of a decreasing firearm homicide trend during a period of lax enforcement, provide further support for the association between reduced firearm homicide and stricter regulation

Efficacy and Safety of Prophylactic Vaccines against Cervical HPV Infection and Diseases among Women: A Systematic Review & Meta-Analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess efficacy and safety of prophylactic HPV vaccines against cervical cancer precursor events in women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Randomized-controlled trials of HPV vaccines were identified from MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, conference abstracts and references of identified studies, and assessed by two independent reviewers. Efficacy data were synthesized using fixed-effect models, and evaluated for heterogeneity using I²statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seven unique trials enrolling 44,142 females were included. The fixed-effect Relative Risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were 0.04 (0.01-0.11) and 0.10 (0.03-0.38) for HPV-16 and HPV 18-related CIN2+ in the per-protocol populations (PPP). The corresponding RR was 0.47 (0.36-0.61) and 0.16 (0.08-0.34) in the intention-to-treat populations (ITT). Efficacy against CIN1+ was similar in scale in favor of vaccine. Overall vaccines were highly efficacious against 6-month persistent infection with HPV 16 and 18, both in the PPP cohort (RR: 0.06 [0.04-0.09] and 0.05 [0.03-0.09], respectively), and the ITT cohorts (RR: 0.15 [0.10-0.23] and 0.24 [0.14-0.42], respectively). There was limited prophylactic effect against CIN2+ and 6-month persistent infections associated with non-vaccine oncogenic HPV types. The risk of serious adverse events (RR: 1.00, 0.91-1.09) or vaccine-related serious adverse events (RR: 1.82; 0.79-4.20) did not differ significantly between vaccine and control groups. Data on abnormal pregnancy outcomes were underreported.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Prophylactic HPV vaccines are safe, well tolerated, and highly efficacious in preventing persistent infections and cervical diseases associated with vaccine-HPV types among young females. However, long-term efficacy and safety needs to be addressed in future trials.</p

Prevalence and Correlates of Hepatitis C Infection among Male Injection Drug Users in Detention, Tehran, Iran

For the benefit of planning for the future care and treatment of people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and to help guide prevention and control programs, data are needed on HCV seroprevalence and associated risk factors. We conducted a cross-sectional sero-behavioral survey of injection drug users (IDU) detained for mandatory rehabilitation during a police sweep of Tehran, Iran, in early 2006. During the study period, a consecutive sample comprising 454 of 499 (91.0%) men arrested and determined to be IDU by urine test and physical examination consented to a face-to-face interview and blood collection for HCV antibody testing. Overall, HCV prevalence was 80.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 76.2–83.6). Factors independently associated with HCV infection included history of incarceration (adjusted OR 4.35, 95% CI 1.88–10.08), age of first injection ≤25 years (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.09–6.82), and history of tattooing (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.05–5.17). HCV prevalence in this population of IDU upon intake to jail was extremely high and possibly approaching saturation. Findings support that incarceration is contributing to the increased spread of HCV infection in Iran and calls for urgent increased availability of HCV treatment, long-term preparation for the care of complications of chronic infection, and rapid scale-up of programs for the primary prevention of parenterally transmitted infections among drug users

Human papillomavirus prevalence, viral load and pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix in women initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cross-sectional study

Background Cervical cancer and infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are both important public health problems in South Africa (SA). The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions (SILs), high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), HPV viral load and HPV genotypes in HIV positive women initiating anti-retroviral (ARV) therapy. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted at an anti-retroviral (ARV) treatment clinic in Cape Town, SA in 2007. Cervical specimens were taken for cytological analysis and HPV testing. The Digene Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) test was used to detect HR-HPV. Relative light units (RLU) were used as a measure of HPV viral load. HPV types were determined using the Roche Linear Array HPV Genotyping test. Crude associations with abnormal cytology were tested and multiple logistic regression was used to determine independent risk factors for abnormal cytology. Results The median age of the 109 participants was 31 years, the median CD4 count was 125/mm3, 66.3% had an abnormal Pap smear, the HR-HPV prevalence was 78.9% (Digene), the median HPV viral load was 181.1 RLU (HC2 positive samples only) and 78.4% had multiple genotypes. Among women with abnormal smears the most prevalent HR-HPV types were HPV types 16, 58 and 51, all with a prevalence of 28.5%. On univariate analysis HR-HPV, multiple HPV types and HPV viral load were significantly associated with the presence of low and high-grade SILs (LSIL/HSIL). The multivariate logistic regression showed that HPV viral load was associated with an increased odds of LSIL/HSIL, odds ratio of 10.7 (95% CI 2.0 – 57.7) for those that were HC2 positive and had a viral load of ≤ 181.1 RLU (the median HPV viral load), and 33.8 (95% CI 6.4 – 178.9) for those that were HC2 positive with a HPV viral load > 181.1 RLU. Conclusion Women initiating ARVs have a high prevalence of abnormal Pap smears and HR-HPV. Our results underscore the need for locally relevant, rigorous screening protocols for the increasing numbers of women accessing ARV therapy so that the benefits of ARVs are not partially offset by an excess risk in cervical cancer

Transitional Probability-Based Model for HPV Clearance in HIV-1-Positive Adolescent Females

BACKGROUND: HIV-1-positive patients clear the human papillomavirus (HPV) infection less frequently than HIV-1-negative. Datasets for estimating HPV clearance probability often have irregular measurements of HPV status and risk factors. A new transitional probability-based model for estimation of probability of HPV clearance was developed to fully incorporate information on HIV-1-related clinical data, such as CD4 counts, HIV-1 viral load (VL), highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), and risk factors (measured quarterly), and HPV infection status (measured at 6-month intervals). METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: Data from 266 HIV-1-positive and 134 at-risk HIV-1-negative adolescent females from the Reaching for Excellence in Adolescent Care and Health (REACH) cohort were used in this study. First, the associations were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazard model, and the variables that demonstrated significant effects on HPV clearance were included in transitional probability models. The new model established the efficacy of CD4 cell counts as a main clearance predictor for all type-specific HPV phylogenetic groups. The 3-month probability of HPV clearance in HIV-1-infected patients significantly increased with increasing CD4 counts for HPV16/16-like (p<0.001), HPV18/18-like (p<0.001), HPV56/56-like (p = 0.05), and low-risk HPV (p<0.001) phylogenetic groups, with the lowest probability found for HPV16/16-like infections (21.60±1.81% at CD4 level 200 cells/mm(3), p<0.05; and 28.03±1.47% at CD4 level 500 cells/mm(3)). HIV-1 VL was a significant predictor for clearance of low-risk HPV infections (p<0.05). HAART (with protease inhibitor) was significant predictor of probability of HPV16 clearance (p<0.05). HPV16/16-like and HPV18/18-like groups showed heterogeneity (p<0.05) in terms of how CD4 counts, HIV VL, and HAART affected probability of clearance of each HPV infection. CONCLUSIONS: This new model predicts the 3-month probability of HPV infection clearance based on CD4 cell counts and other HIV-1-related clinical measurements

51 School Shootings and Mental Health in the United States

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: It is estimated that 357,000 children have experienced a school shooting since 1999, yet due to limitations in the firearm violence field broadly, the sequalae are not well understood. The objective of this work is to examine the mental health impacts of school shootings, providing insight into the lasting effects of firearm violence on our communities. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We will first conduct a quasi-experimental study using controlled interrupted time series with repeated cross-sectional data to assess school shootings’ impact on US mental health. School shooting data is from the K-12 School Shooting Database, and mental health data will be collected via the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Second, we will conduct focus groups with community organizations, school administrators, and the public. Interview guides will be developed to explore the mental health impacts of school shootings, to guide the quantitative results interpretation, and assess educational materials’ usefulness. Qualitative analysis will occur in NVivo software with codebook refinement through thematic analysis. Results will be triangulated through convergence coding. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: This research is situated within the context of the pervasive mental health challenges in the US, where mental illness poses significant health, social, and economic burdens. Thus, we anticipate finding an association between school shootings and decreased self-reported mental well-being among US adults. Literature suggests that there may be a stronger association among specific subgroups, such as parents with school-aged children or individuals living in close proximity to such incidents. We expect to find heterogeneity in the effect estimate based on school shooting attributes, such as the number of casualties. Through focus groups, we anticipate furthering our comprehension of the broad-ranging effects of school shootings on less quantifiable outcomes and the unique trajectories of recovery. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This project will contribute needed information on the impact of school shootings and mental health and assist in reducing the frequency and impact of school shootings. Furthermore, we aim to extend our findings beyond the scientific community, translating them into educational resources advocating for policy and public health interventions