An ensemble-based approach for pumping optimization in an island aquifer considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty

In coastal zones, a major objective of groundwater management is often to determine sustainable pumping rates which avoid well salinization. Understanding how model and climate uncertainties affect optimal management solutions is essential for providing groundwater managers with information about salinization risk and is facilitated by the use of optimization under uncertainty (OUU) methods. However, guidelines are missing for the widespread implementation of OUU in real-world coastal aquifers and for the incorporation of climate uncertainty into OUU approaches. An ensemble-based OUU approach was developed considering parameter, observation and climate uncertainty and was implemented in a real-world island aquifer in the Magdalen Islands (Quebec, Canada). A sharp-interface seawater intrusion model was developed using MODFLOW-SWI2 and a prior parameter ensemble was generated containing multiple equally plausible realizations. Ensemble-based history matching was conducted using an iterative ensemble smoother which yielded a posterior parameter ensemble conveying both parameter and observation uncertainty. Sea level and recharge ensembles were generated for the year 2050 and were then used to generate a predictive parameter ensemble conveying parameter, observation and climate uncertainty. Multi-objective OUU was then conducted, aiming to both maximize pumping rates and minimize the probability of well salinization. As a result, the optimal trade-off between pumping and the probability of salinization was quantified considering parameter, historical observation and future climate uncertainty simultaneously. The multi-objective, ensemble-based OUU led to optimal pumping rates that were very different from a previous deterministic OUU and close to the current and projected water demand for risk-averse stances. Incorporating climate uncertainty into the OUU was also critical since it reduced the maximum allowable pumping rates for users with a risk-averse stance. The workflow used tools adapted to very high-dimensional, nonlinear models and optimization problems to facilitate its implementation in a wide range of real-world settings.</p

Reporting of Stream-Aquifer Flow Distribution at the Regional Scale with a Distributed Process-Based Model

International audienceGroundwater withdrawals can reduce aquifer-to-stream flow and induce stream-to-aquifer flow. These effects involve potential threats over surface water and groundwater quantity and quality. As a result, the description of stream-aquifer flow in space and time is of high interest for water managers. In this study, the EauDyssée platform, an integrated groundwater/surface water model is extended to provide the distribution of stream-aquifer flow at the regional scale. The methodology is implemented over long periods (17 years) in the Seine river basin (76 375 km 2 , France) with a 6 481 km long simulated river network. The study scale is compatible with the scale of interest of water authorities, which is often larger than study scales of research projects. Net and gross stream-aquifer exchange flow are computed at the daily time step over the whole river network at a resolution of 1 km. Simula-tion results highlight that a major proportion of the main stream network (82 %) is supplied by groundwater. Groundwater withdrawals induce a reduction of net aquifer-to-stream flow (−19 %) at the basin scale and flow reversals in the vicinity of pumping locations. 140 Pryet et al. Such an integrated model provided at the appropriate regional scale is an essential tool provided to water managers for the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive

A statistical approach to interpret regional airborne electromagnetic surveys for hydrogeological characterization

International audienc

Rapport final du projet MODCHAR2 : Modélisation des pressions agricoles et de leur impact 2013-2015 - Evaluation environnementale et économique de scénarios agricoles par modélisation intégrée (IMAS) dans le bassin versant de la Charente

Non-point source pollution is a cause of major concern within the European Union. This is reflected in increasing public and political focus on a more sustainable use of pesticides, as well as a reduction in diffuse pollution. Climate change will likely to lead to an even more intensive use of pesticides in the future, affecting agriculture in many ways. At the same time, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and associated EU policies called for a ‘good’ ecological and chemical status to be achieved for water bodies by the end of 2015, currently delayed to 2021-2027 due to a lack of efficiency in policies and timescale of resilience for hydrosystems, especially groundwater systems. Water managers need appropriate and user-friendly tools to design agro-environmental policies. These tools should help them to evaluate the potential impacts of mitigation measures on water resources, more clearly define protected areas, and more efficiently distribute financial incentives to farmers who agree to implement alternative practices. At present, a number of reports point out that water managers do not use appropriate information from monitoring or models to make decisions and set environmental action plans. In this paper, we propose an integrated and collaborative approach to analyzing changes in land use, farming systems and practices, and to assess their effects on agricultural pressure and pesticide transfers to waters. The IMAS (Integrated Modelling of Agricultural Scenarios) framework draws on a range of data and expert knowledge available within areas where a pesticide action plan can be defined to restore the water quality: French ‘Grenelle law’ catchment areas, French Water Development and Management Plan areas etc. A so called ‘reference scenario’ represents the actual soil occupation and pesticide spraying practices used in both conventional and organic farming. A number of alternative scenarios are then defined in co-operation with stakeholders, including socio-economic conditions for developing alternative agricultural systems or targeting mitigation measures. Our integrated assessment of these scenarios combines the calculation of spatialized environmental indicators with integrated bio-economic modelling. The latter is achieved by a combined use of SWAT modelling with our own purpose-built land-use generator module (GenLU2) and an economic model developed using General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for cost-effectiveness assessment. This integrated approach is applied to two embedded catchment areas (total area of 360 000 hectares) within the Charente river basin (SW France). Our results show that it is possible to differentiate scenarios based on their effectiveness, represented by either evolution of pressure (agro-environmental indicators) or transport into waters (pesticide concentrations). By analyzing the implementation costs borne by farmers, it is possible to identify the most cost-effective scenarios at sub-basin and other aggregated levels (WFD hydrological entities, sensitive areas). Relevant results and indicators are fed into a specifically designed database. Data warehousing is used to provide analyses and outputs at all thematic, temporal or spatial aggregated levels, defined by the stakeholders (type of crops, herbicides, WFD areas, years), using Spatial On-Line Analytical Processing (SOLAP) tools. The aim of this approach is to allow public policy makers to make more informed and reasoned decisions when managing sensitive areas and/or implementing mitigation measures

Comparison of deep percolation rates below contrasting land covers with a joint canopy and soil model

[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [TR1_IRSTEA]ARCEAUInternational audienceA Rutter-type canopy interception model is combined with a 1-D physically-based soil water flow model to compare deep percolation rates below distinct land covers. The joint model allows the quantification of both evaporation and transpiration rates as well as deep percolation from vegetation and soil characteristics. Experimental observations are required to constitute the input and calibration datasets. An appropriate monitoring design is described which consists in meteorological monitoring together with throughfall and soil water tension measurements. The methodology is illustrated in Santa Cruz Island in the Galapagos Archipelago, which has been affected by significant land use changes. Two adjacent study plots are investigated: a secondary forest and a pasture. The results of the model reveal that evaporation of canopy interception is higher in the pasture due to the bigger canopy storage capacity, which promotes evaporation against canopy drainage. This is however compensated by higher transpiration in the secondary forest, due to the smaller surface resistance. As a consequence, total evapotranspiration is similar for the two plots and no marked difference in deep percolation can be observed. In both cases, deep percolation reaches ca. 2 m/year which corresponds to 80% of the incoming rainfall. This methodology not only allows the quantification of deep percolation, but can also be used to identify the controlling factors of deep percolation under contrasting land covers