Quantum phenomenology of conjunction fallacy

A quantum-like description of human decision process is developed, and a heuristic argument supporting the theory as sound phenomenology is given. It is shown to be capable of quantitatively explaining the conjunction fallacy in the same footing as the violation of sure-thing principle.Comment: LaTeX 8 pages, 2 figure

Investing in Prevention or Paying for Recovery - Attitudes to Cyber Risk

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Broadly speaking an individual can invest time and effort to avoid becoming victim to a cyber attack and/or they can invest resource in recovering from any attack. We introduce a new game called the pre-vention and recovery game to study this trade-off. We report results from the experimental lab that allow us to categorize different approaches to risk taking. We show that many individuals appear relatively risk loving in that they invest in recovery rather than prevention. We find little difference in behavior between a gain and loss framing

Reasons and Means to Model Preferences as Incomplete

Literature involving preferences of artificial agents or human beings often assume their preferences can be represented using a complete transitive binary relation. Much has been written however on different models of preferences. We review some of the reasons that have been put forward to justify more complex modeling, and review some of the techniques that have been proposed to obtain models of such preferences

A Description Logic of Typicality for Conceptual Combination

We propose a nonmonotonic Description Logic of typicality able to account for the phenomenon of combining prototypical concepts, an open problem in the fields of AI and cognitive modelling. Our logic extends the logic of typicality ALC + TR, based on the notion of rational closure, by inclusions p :: T(C) v D (“we have probability p that typical Cs are Ds”), coming from the distributed semantics of probabilistic Description Logics. Additionally, it embeds a set of cognitive heuristics for concept combination. We show that the complexity of reasoning in our logic is EXPTIME-complete as in ALC

Phase control and measurement in digital microscopy

The ongoing merger of the digital and optical components of the modern microscope is creating opportunities for new measurement techniques, along with new challenges for optical modelling. This thesis investigates several such opportunities and challenges which are particularly relevant to biomedical imaging. Fourier optics is used throughout the thesis as the underlying conceptual model, with a particular emphasis on three--dimensional Fourier optics. A new challenge for optical modelling provided by digital microscopy is the relaxation of traditional symmetry constraints on optical design. An extension of optical transfer function theory to deal with arbitrary lens pupil functions is presented in this thesis. This is used to chart the 3D vectorial structure of the spatial frequency spectrum of the intensity in the focal region of a high aperture lens when illuminated by linearly polarised beam. Wavefront coding has been used successfully in paraxial imaging systems to extend the depth of field. This is achieved by controlling the pupil phase with a cubic phase mask, and thereby balancing optical behaviour with digital processing. In this thesis I present a high aperture vectorial model for focusing with a cubic phase mask, and compare it with results calculated using the paraxial approximation. The effect of a refractive index change is also explored. High aperture measurements of the point spread function are reported, along with experimental confirmation of high aperture extended depth of field imaging of a biological specimen. Differential interference contrast is a popular method for imaging phase changes in otherwise transparent biological specimens. In this thesis I report on a new isotropic algorithm for retrieving the phase from differential interference contrast images of the phase gradient, using phase shifting, two directions of shear, and non--iterative Fourier phase integration incorporating a modified spiral phase transform. This method does not assume that the specimen has a constant amplitude. A simulation is presented which demonstrates good agreement between the retrieved phase and the phase of the simulated object, with excellent immunity to imaging noise

Classical Logical versus Quantum Conceptual Thought: Examples in Economics, Decision theory and Concept Theory

Inspired by a quantum mechanical formalism to model concepts and their disjunctions and conjunctions, we put forward in this paper a specific hypothesis. Namely that within human thought two superposed layers can be distinguished: (i) a layer given form by an underlying classical deterministic process, incorporating essentially logical thought and its indeterministic version modeled by classical probability theory; (ii) a layer given form under influence of the totality of the surrounding conceptual landscape, where the different concepts figure as individual entities rather than (logical) combinations of others, with measurable quantities such as 'typicality', 'membership', 'representativeness', 'similarity', 'applicability', 'preference' or 'utility' carrying the influences. We call the process in this second layer 'quantum conceptual thought', which is indeterministic in essence, and contains holistic aspects, but is equally well, although very differently, organized than logical thought. A substantial part of the 'quantum conceptual thought process' can be modeled by quantum mechanical probabilistic and mathematical structures. We consider examples of three specific domains of research where the effects of the presence of quantum conceptual thought and its deviations from classical logical thought have been noticed and studied, i.e. economics, decision theory, and concept theories and which provide experimental evidence for our hypothesis.Comment: 14 page

Experimental Evidence for Quantum Structure in Cognition

We proof a theorem that shows that a collection of experimental data of membership weights of items with respect to a pair of concepts and its conjunction cannot be modeled within a classical measure theoretic weight structure in case the experimental data contain the effect called overextension. Since the effect of overextension, analogue to the well-known guppy effect for concept combinations, is abundant in all experiments testing weights of items with respect to pairs of concepts and their conjunctions, our theorem constitutes a no-go theorem for classical measure structure for common data of membership weights of items with respect to concepts and their combinations. We put forward a simple geometric criterion that reveals the non classicality of the membership weight structure and use experimentally measured membership weights estimated by subjects in experiments to illustrate our geometrical criterion. The violation of the classical weight structure is similar to the violation of the well-known Bell inequalities studied in quantum mechanics, and hence suggests that the quantum formalism and hence the modeling by quantum membership weights can accomplish what classical membership weights cannot do.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

Probabilidade de acontecimentos envolvendo aspetos lógicos

In this article, we study the Probability's knowledge of prospective primary school teachers, when there are logical aspects involved in the formulation of events. Forty-six students participated in the study, from a University in Northern Portugal, who had to resolve a three-item task in the context of a formal evaluation: the first one, on the union probability (connective or), the second one, on the joint probability (connective and), and the third one, on the conditional probability, in which the conditioned event is, in turn, a joint probability (connective and). In terms of the main results of the study, it was found that the students showed a very limited performance, frequently changing the connectives and and or, the inclusive disjunction with the exclusive disjunction and in the disjunction considered as incompatible non-disjoint events.Neste artigo estuda-se o conhecimento de Probabilidades de futuros professores dos primeiros anos escolares, quando na formulação dos acontecimentos estão envolvidos aspetos lógicos. Participaram no estudo 46 alunos da Licenciatura em Educação Básica, de uma Universidade do Norte de Portugal, os quais resolveram uma tarefa, com três itens, em contexto de avaliação formal: o primeiro sobre a probabilidade da reunião (conetivo ), o segundo sobre a probabilidade conjunta (conetivo ) e o terceiro sobre a probabilidade condicionada, em que o acontecimento condicionado é, por sua vez, uma probabilidade conjunta (conetivo ). Em termos dos principais resultados do estudo, verificou-se que os alunos revelaram um desempenho muito limitado, trocando, frequentemente, os conetivos e , a disjunção inclusiva com a disjunção exclusiva e na disjunção consideraram como sendo incompatíveis acontecimentos não disjuntos.Este trabalho contou com o apoio de Fundos Nacionais através da FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia no âmbito do projeto PEst-OE/CED/UI1661/2014, do CIEd-UM e do projeto UID/Multi/04016/2016

A Quantum-Conceptual Explanation of Violations of Expected Utility in Economics

The expected utility hypothesis is one of the building blocks of classical economic theory and founded on Savage's Sure-Thing Principle. It has been put forward, e.g. by situations such as the Allais and Ellsberg paradoxes, that real-life situations can violate Savage's Sure-Thing Principle and hence also expected utility. We analyze how this violation is connected to the presence of the 'disjunction effect' of decision theory and use our earlier study of this effect in concept theory to put forward an explanation of the violation of Savage's Sure-Thing Principle, namely the presence of 'quantum conceptual thought' next to 'classical logical thought' within a double layer structure of human thought during the decision process. Quantum conceptual thought can be modeled mathematically by the quantum mechanical formalism, which we illustrate by modeling the Hawaii problem situation, a well-known example of the disjunction effect, and we show how the dynamics in the Hawaii problem situation is generated by the whole conceptual landscape surrounding the decision situation.Comment: 9 pages, no figure

Tversky loss function for image segmentation using 3D fully convolutional deep networks

Fully convolutional deep neural networks carry out excellent potential for fast and accurate image segmentation. One of the main challenges in training these networks is data imbalance, which is particularly problematic in medical imaging applications such as lesion segmentation where the number of lesion voxels is often much lower than the number of non-lesion voxels. Training with unbalanced data can lead to predictions that are severely biased towards high precision but low recall (sensitivity), which is undesired especially in medical applications where false negatives are much less tolerable than false positives. Several methods have been proposed to deal with this problem including balanced sampling, two step training, sample re-weighting, and similarity loss functions. In this paper, we propose a generalized loss function based on the Tversky index to address the issue of data imbalance and achieve much better trade-off between precision and recall in training 3D fully convolutional deep neural networks. Experimental results in multiple sclerosis lesion segmentation on magnetic resonance images show improved F2 score, Dice coefficient, and the area under the precision-recall curve in test data. Based on these results we suggest Tversky loss function as a generalized framework to effectively train deep neural networks