Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships

Entanglement by Path Identity

Quantum entanglement is one of the most prominent features of quantum mechanics and forms the basis of quantum information technologies. Here we present a novel method for the creation of quantum entanglement in multipartite and high-dimensional systems. The two ingredients are (i) superposition of photon pairs with different origins and (ii) aligning photons such that their paths are identical. We explain the experimentally feasible creation of various classes of multiphoton entanglement encoded in polarization as well as in high-dimensional Hilbert spaces-starting only from nonentangled photon pairs. For two photons, arbitrary high-dimensional entanglement can be created. The idea of generating entanglement by path identity could also apply to quantum entities other than photons. We discovered the technique by analyzing the output of a computer algorithm. This shows that computer designed quantum experiments can be inspirations for new techniques

Incorporating model uncertainty into optimal insurance contract design

In stochastic optimization models, the optimal solution heavily depends on the selected probability model for the scenarios. However, the scenario models are typically chosen on the basis of statistical estimates and are therefore subject to model error. We demonstrate here how the model uncertainty can be incorporated into the decision making process. We use a nonparametric approach for quantifying the model uncertainty and a minimax setup to find model-robust solutions. The method is illustrated by a risk management problem involving the optimal design of an insurance contract

Approach for national scale earthquake risk assessment: Case study from Nepal

The paper presents the approach for earthquake hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment for Nepal. The approach amalgamates various scientific streams, which are structured and integrated on GIS platform. The exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment are carried out for primary sectors including population, housing, education, hospital, industry, power and roadways. The risk assessment is carried out in two ways targeting emergency management agencies. One aspect of risk assessment represents expected number of sector units falling in specific grade of damage and the second aspect covers expected loss and impact on GDP due to large magnitude earthquake (i.e., Bihar-Nepal Earthquake 1934). The earthquake risk for the size of the 1934 event may mean losses exceeding 15 billion USD, can lead to large fiscal and economic impacts. Based on these findings the paper recommends DRR interventions at the national scale to tackle gaps in risk reduction, risk financing and risk governance

Catalogue and Toolbox of Risk Assessment and Management Tools

The ENHANCE project is concerned with analysing and working towards improved public-private partnerships for managing risks from natural hazards. An important issue for such partnerships is the methods, tools and processes available for assessing risk and risk management options. Risk analysis has long provided useful input to decision-making. At the same time, the field of risk analysis is in motion and an enhanced framing of risk analysis and risk management is being embraced following an iterative cycle organized around notions of learning, innovation and transformation. This broadened vision on risk analysis is a key issue for the ENHANCE project as well, which takes many and different perspectives on analysing, understanding, communicating and managing risk. This report lays out the status quo at the outset of the project regarding risk analytical tools, methods and data that are currently used by project partners in ENHANCE. The task overall develops a catalogue of existing risk assessment and management tools and methods to describe the concepts of iterative risk management and further sets up a toolbox, containing individual models and tools to be used by the case studies in their analyses. While work in the cases study, including methodological development, is in process, we find that ENHANCE partners and cases employ a multitude of models, tools and data ranging from impact analysis, different risk modelling techniques to various decision-support methods. A number of tools that encapsulate these methods are also available with the consortium. We suggest the tools and methods in use can be useful starting points for working towards a broader vision of iterative risk management. While the work so far, and this deliverable, have focussed on populating the technical stages of the risk analytical cycle (visually identified as the inner circle), we suggest in the next phase of ENHANCE, additional efforts should be dispensed to better understand adaptive management aspects associated with using these methods and tools, such as learning, innovation and transformation, which we exhibit visually in an outer circle. This report proceeds as follows: We start with laying out key elements of risk analysis and management in section 2, which also describes the new framing organized around the iterative risk-management concept. Methods for assessing risk and evaluating risk management are discussed in section 3. Then we consider methods, models and datasets that are in use in the ENHANCE case studies at the moment (section 4), before section 5 concludes. Finally and importantly, the annex lists more information on cases studies, for which detailed information was received from the project partners

Quantum indistinguishability by path identity and with undetected photons

Two processes of photon-pair creation can be arranged such that the paths of the emitted photons are identical. The path information is thereby not erased but rather never born in the first place due to this path identity. In addition to its implications for fundamental physics, this concept has recently led to a series of impactful discoveries in the fields of imaging, spectroscopy, and quantum information science. Here the idea of path identity is presented and a comprehensive review of recent developments is provided. Specifically, the concept of path identity is introduced based on three defining experimental ideas from the early 1990s. The three experiments have in common that they contain two photon-pair sources. The paths of one or both photons from the different sources overlap such that no measurement can recognize from which source they originate. A wide range of noteworthy quantum interference effects (at the single- or two-photon level), such as induced coherence, destructive interference of photon pairs, and entanglement generation, are subsequently described. Progress in the exploration of these ideas has stagnated and has gained momentum again only in the last few years. The focus of the review is the new development in the last few years that modified and generalized the ideas from the early 1990s. These developments are overviewed and explained under the same conceptual umbrella, which will help the community develop new applications and realize the foundational implications of this sleeping beauty

If Numbers Can Speak, Who Listens? Creating Engagement and Learning for Effective Uptake of DRR Investment in Developing Countries

Introduction: With a renewed emphasis on evidence-based risk sensitive investment promoted under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, technical demands for analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis (CBA) will likely increase in the foreseeable future. This begs a number of pragmatic questions such as whether or not sophisticated quantitative appraisal tools are effective in raising policy awareness and what alternatives are available. Method: This article briefly reviews current practices of analytical tools such as probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and identifies issues associated with its applications in small scale community based DRR interventions. Results: The article illustrate that while best scientific knowledge should inform policy and practice in principle, it should not create an unrealistic expectation that the state-of-the art methods must be used in all cases, especially for small scale DRR interventions in developing countries, where data and resource limitations and uncertainty are high, and complex interaction and feedback may exist between DRR investment, community response and longer-term development outcome. Discussion: Alternative and more participatory approaches for DRR appraisals are suggested which includes participatory serious games that are increasingly being used to raise awareness and identify pragmatic strategies for change that are needed to bring about successful uptake of DRR investment and implementation of DRR mainstreaming

A typology of community flood resilience

Flood risk is increasing worldwide and there is a growing need to better understand the co-benefits of investments in disaster resilience. Utilizing a multinational community flood resilience dataset, this paper takes a systems approach to understanding community-level flood resilience. Using a cluster analysis and bivariate correlation methods, we develop a typology of community flood resilience capacity based on community characteristics and five capitals (human, financial, natural, physical, and social). Our results reinforce the importance of context-specific policymaking and give recommendations of four distinct clusters to investigate the relationship between flood resilience and prevailing development conditions. We especially find that communities with higher interactions between their capital capacities tend to have higher flood resilience levels. Additionally, there are indications that stronger interactions between community capacities can help to induce multiple co-benefits when investing in disaster resilience. Our results also have important policy implications on the individual community level. For example, based on our results, we suggest that communities with lower flood resilience capacities and interactions can best build resilience on leveraging their relatively higher human capital capacities to strengthen the financial and social capitals. Negative effects might happen for urban communities when co-benefits of natural and physical capital are not fully integrated. The highest flood resilience capacity is found in communities with a well-balanced household income distribution which is likely a contributing factor to the importance of financial capital for this cluster. Our results emphasize the importance of an integrative approach to management when implementing systematic flood disaster resilience metrics and development measures