Response of Marine‐Terminating Glaciers to Forcing: Time Scales, Sensitivities, Instabilities, and Stochastic Dynamics

Recent observations indicate that many marine‐terminating glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica are currently retreating and thinning, potentially due to long‐term trends in climate forcing. In this study, we describe a simple two‐stage model that accurately emulates the response to external forcing of marine‐terminating glaciers simulated in a spatially extended model. The simplicity of the model permits derivation of analytical expressions describing the marine‐terminating glacier response to forcing. We find that there are two time scales that characterize the stable glacier response to external forcing, a fast time scale of decades to centuries, and a slow time scale of millennia. These two time scales become unstable at different thresholds of bed slope, indicating that there are distinct slow and fast forms of the marine ice sheet instability. We derive simple expressions for the approximate magnitude and transient evolution of the stable glacier response to external forcing, which depend on the equilibrium glacier state and the strength of nonlinearity in forcing processes. The slow response rate of marine‐terminating glaciers indicates that current changes at some glaciers are set to continue and accelerate in coming centuries in response to past climate forcing and that the current extent of change at these glaciers is likely a small fraction of the future committed change caused by past climate forcing. Finally, we find that changing the amplitude of natural fluctuations in some nonlinear forcing processes, such as ice shelf calving, changes the equilibrium glacier state

Oscillatory subglacial drainage in the absence of surface melt

The presence of strong diurnal cycling in basal water pressure records obtained during the melt season is well established for many glaciers. The behaviour of the drainage system outside the melt season is less well understood. Here we present borehole observations from a surge-type valley glacier in the St Elias Mountains, Yukon Territory, Canada. Our data indicate the onset of strongly correlated multi-day oscillations in water pressure in multiple boreholes straddling a main drainage axis, starting several weeks after the disappearance of a dominant diurnal mode in August 2011 and persisting until at least January 2012, when multiple data loggers suffered power failure. Jökulhlaups provide a template for understanding spontaneous water pressure oscillations not driven by external supply variability. Using a subglacial drainage model, we show that water pressure oscillations can also be driven on a much smaller scale by the interaction between conduit growth and distributed water storage in smaller water pockets, basal crevasses and moulins, and that oscillations can be triggered when water supply drops below a critical value. We suggest this in combination with a steady background supply of water from ground water or englacial drainage as a possible explanation for the observed wintertime pressure oscillations

Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts

A parameterization for the motion of ice-shelf fronts on a Cartesian grid in finite-difference land-ice models is presented. The scheme prevents artificial thinning of the ice shelf at its edge, which occurs due to the finite resolution of the model. The intuitive numerical implementation diminishes numerical dispersion at the ice front and enables the application of physical boundary conditions to improve the calculation of stress and velocity fields throughout the ice-sheet-shelf system. Numerical properties of this subgrid modification are assessed in the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) for different geometries in one and two horizontal dimensions and are verified against an analytical solution in a flow-line setup

Parameterization for subgrid-scale motion of ice-shelf calving fronts

In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS

Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat

Recently observed large-scale disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves has moved their fronts closer towards grounded ice. In response, ice-sheet discharge into the ocean has accelerated, contributing to global sea-level rise and emphasizing the importance of calving-front dynamics. The position of the ice front strongly influences the stress field within the entire sheet-shelf-system and thereby the mass flow across the grounding line. While theories for an advance of the ice-front are readily available, no general rule exists for its retreat, making it difficult to incorporate the retreat in predictive models. Here we extract the first-order large-scale kinematic contribution to calving which is consistent with large-scale observation. We emphasize that the proposed equation does not constitute a comprehensive calving law but represents the first-order kinematic contribution which can and should be complemented by higher order contributions as well as the influence of potentially heterogeneous material properties of the ice. When applied as a calving law, the equation naturally incorporates the stabilizing effect of pinning points and inhibits ice shelf growth outside of embayments. It depends only on local ice properties which are, however, determined by the full topography of the ice shelf. In numerical simulations the parameterization reproduces multiple stable fronts as observed for the Larsen A and B Ice Shelves including abrupt transitions between them which may be caused by localized ice weaknesses. We also find multiple stable states of the Ross Ice Shelf at the gateway of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet with back stresses onto the sheet reduced by up to 90 % compared to the present state

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model

Response of Marine‐Terminating Glaciers to Forcing: Time Scales, Sensitivities, Instabilities, and Stochastic Dynamics

Recent observations indicate that many marine‐terminating glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica are currently retreating and thinning, potentially due to long‐term trends in climate forcing. In this study, we describe a simple two‐stage model that accurately emulates the response to external forcing of marine‐terminating glaciers simulated in a spatially extended model. The simplicity of the model permits derivation of analytical expressions describing the marine‐terminating glacier response to forcing. We find that there are two time scales that characterize the stable glacier response to external forcing, a fast time scale of decades to centuries, and a slow time scale of millennia. These two time scales become unstable at different thresholds of bed slope, indicating that there are distinct slow and fast forms of the marine ice sheet instability. We derive simple expressions for the approximate magnitude and transient evolution of the stable glacier response to external forcing, which depend on the equilibrium glacier state and the strength of nonlinearity in forcing processes. The slow response rate of marine‐terminating glaciers indicates that current changes at some glaciers are set to continue and accelerate in coming centuries in response to past climate forcing and that the current extent of change at these glaciers is likely a small fraction of the future committed change caused by past climate forcing. Finally, we find that changing the amplitude of natural fluctuations in some nonlinear forcing processes, such as ice shelf calving, changes the equilibrium glacier state

Loop assembly: a simple and open system for recursive fabrication of DNA circuits.

High efficiency methods for DNA assembly have enabled routine assembly of synthetic DNAs of increased size and complexity. However, these techniques require customisation, elaborate vector sets or serial manipulations for the different stages of assembly. We have developed Loop assembly based on a recursive approach to DNA fabrication. The system makes use of two Type IIS restriction endonucleases and corresponding vector sets for efficient and parallel assembly of large DNA circuits. Standardised level 0 parts can be assembled into circuits containing 1, 4, 16 or more genes by looping between the two vector sets. The vectors also contain modular sites for hybrid assembly using sequence overlap methods. Loop assembly enables efficient and versatile DNA fabrication for plant transformation. We show construction of plasmids up to 16 genes and 38 Kb with high efficiency (>80%). We have characterized Loop assembly on over 200 different DNA constructs and validated the fidelity of the method by high-throughput Illumina plasmid sequencing. Our method provides a simple generalised solution for DNA construction with standardised parts. The cloning system is provided under an OpenMTA license for unrestricted sharing and open access. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Support for the authors was provided by Becas Chile and the Cambridge Trust (to B.P.), University of Cambridge BBSRC DTP programme (to M.D.), and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [OpenPlant Grant No. BB/L014130/1] (to N.P., F.F. and J.H.). Laboratory automation, nextgeneration sequencing and library construction was delivered via the BBSRC National Capability in Genomics (BB/CCG1720/1) at Earlham Institute. F.F. acknowledges funding from CONICYT Fondecyt Iniciación 11140776. F.F. and R.A.G. acknowledge funding from Fondo de Desarrollo de Areas Prioritarias (FONDAP) Center for Genome Regulation (15090007) and Millennium Nucleus Center for Plant Systems and Synthetic Biology (NC130030)

A low-power data acquisition system for geomagnetic observatories and variometer stations

A modern geomagnetic observatory must provide data of high stability, continuity, and resolution. The INTERMAGNET network has therefore specified quantitative criteria to ensure a high quality standard of geomagnetic observatories. Here, we present a new data acquisition system which was designed to meet these criteria, in particular with respect to 1 Hz data. This system is based on a Raspberry Pi embedded PC and runs a C+ +  data acquisition software. As a result, the data acquisition system is modular, cheap, and flexible, and it can be operated in remote areas with limited power supply. In addition, the system is capable of near-real-time data transmission, using a reverse SSH tunnel to work with any network available. The system hardware was successfully tested at the Niemegk observatory for a period of 1 year and subsequently installed at the Tatuoca observatory in Brazil

Oscillatory subglacial drainage in the absence of surface melt

The presence of strong diurnal cycling in basal water pressure records obtained during the melt season is well established for many glaciers. The behaviour of the drainage system outside the melt season is less well understood. Here we present borehole observations from a surge-type valley glacier in the St Elias Mountains, Yukon Territory, Canada. Our data indicate the onset of strongly correlated multi-day oscillations in water pressure in multiple boreholes straddling a main drainage axis, starting several weeks after the disappearance of a dominant diurnal mode in August 2011 and persisting until at least January 2012, when multiple data loggers suffered power failure. Jökulhlaups provide a template for understanding spontaneous water pressure oscillations not driven by external supply variability. Using a subglacial drainage model, we show that water pressure oscillations can also be driven on a much smaller scale by the interaction between conduit growth and distributed water storage in smaller water pockets, basal crevasses and moulins, and that oscillations can be triggered when water supply drops below a critical value. We suggest this in combination with a steady background supply of water from ground water or englacial drainage as a possible explanation for the observed wintertime pressure oscillations