Planning in Decentralized POMDPs with Predictive Policy Representations

We discuss the problem of policy representation in stochastic and partially observable systems, and address the case where the policy is a hidden parameter of the planning problem. We propose an adaptation of the Predictive State Representations (PSRs) to this problem by introducing tests (sequences of actions and observations) on policies. The new model, called the Predictive Policy Representations (PPRs), is potentially more compact than the other representations, such as decision trees or Finite-State Controllers (FSCs). In this paper, we show how PPRs can be used to improve the performances of a point-based algorithm for DEC-POMDP

A demand-driven approach for a multi-agent system in Supply Chain Management

This paper presents the architecture of a multi-agent decision support system for Supply Chain Management (SCM) which has been designed to compete in the TAC SCM game. The behaviour of the system is demand-driven and the agents plan, predict, and react dynamically to changes in the market. The main strength of the system lies in the ability of the Demand agent to predict customer winning bid prices - the highest prices the agent can offer customers and still obtain their orders. This paper investigates the effect of the ability to predict customer order prices on the overall performance of the system. Four strategies are proposed and compared for predicting such prices. The experimental results reveal which strategies are better and show that there is a correlation between the accuracy of the models' predictions and the overall system performance: the more accurate the prediction of customer order prices, the higher the profit. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

User Centered Cognitive Maps

Two kinds of influence graphs are commonly used in artificial intelligence to modelize influence networks: bayesian networks [Naïm et al., 2004] and cognitive maps [Tolman, 1948]. Influence graphs provide mechanisms to highlight the influence between concepts. Cognitive maps represent a concept by a text and an influence by an arc to which a value is associated

Factors shaping prayer frequency among 9- to 11-year-olds

This paper begins by reviewing the evidence from international research concerning the personal and social correlates of prayer frequency during childhood and adolescence. Overall these data continue to support the view that young people who pray not only report higher levels of personal wellbeing but also report higher levels of pro-social attitudes. These findings raise a research question of particular relevance within church schools regarding the factors that predict higher levels of prayer activity among students. The Student Voice Project offers data that can illuminate this research question. Among the 3,101 9- to 11-year old students who participated in the project 11% prayed daily, 9% at least once a week, 32% sometimes, 11% once or twice a year, and 37% never. The present paper tests the power of four sets of predictor variables to account for individual differences in prayer frequency among these students: personal factors (age and sex), psychological factors (using the three dimensional model of personality proposed by Eysenck), church attendance (self, mother, and father), and family discussion about prayer (mother, father, and grandparents). Multiple regression analyses identified the discussion of prayer with the mother as the single most important predictor. These findings locate the development of the practice of prayer within the home, even more than within the church

Social Media, Gender and the Mediatisation of War: Exploring the German Armed Forces’ Visual Representation of the Afghanistan Operation on Facebook

Studies on the mediatisation of war point to attempts of governments to regulate the visual perspective of their involvements in armed conflict – the most notable example being the practice of ‘embedded reporting’ in Iraq and Afghanistan. This paper focuses on a different strategy of visual meaning-making, namely, the publication of images on social media by armed forces themselves. Specifically, we argue that the mediatisation of war literature could profit from an increased engagement with feminist research, both within Critical Security/Critical Military Studies and within Science and Technology Studies that highlight the close connection between masculinity, technology and control. The article examines the German military mission in Afghanistan as represented on the German armed forces’ official Facebook page. Germany constitutes an interesting, and largely neglected, case for the growing literature on the mediatisation of war: its strong antimilitarist political culture makes the representation of war particularly delicate. The paper examines specific representational patterns of Germany’s involvement in Afghanistan and discusses the implications which arise from what is placed inside the frame of visibility and what remains out of its view

Les Représentations Prédictives des États et des Politiques

Nous proposons dans cet article une nouvelle approche pour représenter les politiques (stratégies) dans les environnements stochastiques et partiellement observables. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux systèmes multi-agents, où chaque agent connaît uniquement ses propres politiques, et doit choisir la meilleure parmi elles selon son état de croyance sur les politiques du reste des agents. Notre modèle utilise moins de paramètres que les méthodes de représentation usuelles, telles que les arbres de décision ou les contrôleurs d’états finis stochastiques, permettant ainsi une accélération des algorithmes de planification. Nous montrons aussi comment ce modèle peut être utilisé efficacement dans le cas de la planification multiagents coopérative et sans communication, les résultats empiriques sont comparés avec le modèle DEC-POMDP (Decentralized Partially Observable Markov Decision Process)