Inflation and Supply Shocks in Spain: A Regional Approach

This paper analyses the effects of supply shocks on the Spanish inflation rate. Our goal is to determine if there is a homogeneous behaviour across regions with regard to that issue or if, on the contrary, there are regions more inflationary than others. In this sense, this paper tries to throw some light on the causes of the recent increase in the Spanish inflation rate and the relation of this fact with the evolution of oil prices. The methodology applied is based on the seminal paper of Ball and Mankiw (1995). Those authors assume that a good proxy for supply shocks is the third moment of the distribution of changes in relative prices, and show that for no trend inflation regimes the presence of nominal rigidities, like menu costs, implies a positive relationship between inflation and skewness -i.e., the supply shocks-, that is magnified by the variance of the distribution. In order to achieve these goals, we have chosen the 1993-2005 period, given that it fulfils the features required to apply the methodology above mentioned. The data used are the monthly consumer price indexes of each region, disaggregated in 57 categories. As a first stage, we have checked that the skewness of the distribution of changes in relative prices is a good proxy for supply shocks. After that, the relationship between inflation and the higher moments of the distribution is estimated. Moreover, control variables as interest rates and unemployment rates have been introduced. The analysis has been carried out in two ways. On one hand, each region is analysed separately and, on the other hand, we have used panel data techniques in order to test homogeneity across regions. Our results point out that Spanish regions show a common pattern with regard to inflation behaviour and that they are vulnerable to supply shocks.

Matching random colored points with rectangles

Let S ¿ [0, 1]2 be a set of n points, randomly and uniformly selected. Let R ¿ B be a random partition, or coloring, of S in which each point of S is included in R uniformly at random with probability 1/2. We study the random number M(n) of points of S that are covered by the rectangles of a maximum strong matching of S with axis-aligned rectangles. The matching consists of closed rectangles that cover exactly two points of S of the same color. A matching is strong if all its rectangles are pairwise disjoint. We prove that almost surely M(n) = 0.83 n for n large enough. Our approach is based on modeling a deterministic greedy matching algorithm, that runs over the random point set, as a Markov chain.Postprint (published version

Random attractors for stochastic 2D-Navier-Stokes equations in some unbounded domains

We show that the stochastic flow generated by the Stochastic Navier-Stokes equations in a 2-dimensional Poincar\'e domain has a unique random attractor. This result complements a recent result by Brze\'zniak and Li [10] who showed that the flow is asymptotically compact and generalizes a recent result by Caraballo et al. [12] who proved existence of a unique pullback attractor for the time-dependent deterministic Navier-Stokes equations in a 2-dimensional Poincar\'e domain

Modelos matemáticos a partir del modelo nomológico–deductivo de la explicación científica

Mostraremos a continuación la posibilidad de generar modelos matemáticos simples a partir de la explicación de un hecho físico. El marco teórico de partida es el de la explicación científica con la estructura del modelo nomológico deductivo. El uso de modelos matemáticos en este marco genera herramientas didácticas de distinto tipo, en este articulo desarrollamos brevemente el diseño de proyectos de investigación para los alumnos. El docente puede generar y luego utilizar estos proyectos de distintos modos, por ejemplo, como actividad de cierre de un curso, o también para generar una discontinuidad en el transcurso de la cursada, como actividad en paralelo que ocupe algún momento de las clases, etc

Detection of Anomalous Microwave Emission in the Pleiades Reflection Nebula with WMAP and the COSMOSOMAS Experiment

We present evidence for anomalous microwave emission (AME) in the Pleiades reflection nebula, using data from the seven-year release of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and from the COSMOSOMAS experiment. The flux integrated in a 1-degree radius around R.A.=56.24^{\circ}, Dec.=23.78^{\circ} (J2000) is 2.15 +/- 0.12 Jy at 22.8 GHz, where AME is dominant. COSMOSOMAS data show no significant emission, but allow to set upper limits of 0.94 and 1.58 Jy (99.7% C.L.) respectively at 10.9 and 14.7 GHz, which are crucial to pin down the AME spectrum at these frequencies, and to discard any other emission mechanisms which could have an important contribution to the signal detected at 22.8 GHz. We estimate the expected level of free-free emission from an extinction-corrected H-alpha template, while the thermal dust emission is characterized from infrared DIRBE data and extrapolated to microwave frequencies. When we deduct the contribution from these two components at 22.8 GHz the residual flux, associated with AME, is 2.12 +/- 0.12 Jy (17.7-sigma). The spectral energy distribution from 10 to 60 GHz can be accurately fitted with a model of electric dipole emission from small spinning dust grains distributed in two separated phases of molecular and atomic gas, respectively. The dust emissivity, calculated by correlating the 22.8 GHz data with 100-micron data, is found to be 4.36+/-0.17 muK/MJy/sr, a value that is rather low compared with typical values in dust clouds. The physical properties of the Pleiades nebula indicate that this is indeed a much less opaque object than others were AME has usually been detected. This fact, together with the broad knowledge of the stellar content of this region, provides an excellent testbed for AME characterization in physical conditions different from those generally explored up to now.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. 12 pages, 8 figure

Impact of noise on a dynamical system: prediction and uncertainties from a swarm-optimized neural network

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) was developed for the time series prediction. The hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was applied on Mackey--Glass chaotic time series in the short-term $x(t+6)$. The performance prediction was evaluated and compared with another studies available in the literature. Also, we presented properties of the dynamical system via the study of chaotic behaviour obtained from the predicted time series. Next, the hybrid ANN+PSO algorithm was complemented with a Gaussian stochastic procedure (called {\it stochastic} hybrid ANN+PSO) in order to obtain a new estimator of the predictions, which also allowed us to compute uncertainties of predictions for noisy Mackey--Glass chaotic time series. Thus, we studied the impact of noise for several cases with a white noise level ($\sigma_{N}$) from 0.01 to 0.1.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure