The Study of Storm Surge Overbank Warning Assistant Decision Model for Fujian Province

本文为解决由于台风路径预报偏差而可能带来的风暴潮预警漏报、误报问题，提出一种基于假想台风增水数据库的风暴潮增水快速预报算法和基于台风路径预报概率圆的风暴潮集合预报、预警模式。首先建立了福建沿海风暴潮数值模型，并利用多年来的福建沿海实测潮位资料对该模型进行了检验，进而运用该模型研究了福建沿海风暴潮增水对台风参数改变的响应以及福建沿海风暴潮－天文潮非线性耦合效应。在此基础上研究建立了基于风暴潮增水数据库的查算方法，结合台风路径“概率圆”预报思路，提出了基于台风路径预报概率信息系统建立了福建省风暴潮漫堤预警辅助决策系统，为防灾减灾提供辅助决策支持。该系统已于2008年台风季节开始投入业务化试用。本文...Storm surge warning could be failure and misdeclared when the typhoon track forecasting deviate from the real track. A storm-surge computation method based on surge database and also an ensemble prediction model based on probability circle of typhoon track forecasting were studied to solute the problem. First of all, a one-way nested coupled storm surge numerical model was established and used to ...学位：理学硕士院系专业：海洋与环境学院环境科学与工程系_物理海洋学学号：2242006115228

基于潮汐表数据同化的天文潮数值预报模型及其模拟预报效果

[摘要]：潮汐表是利用长期潮汐观测结果经调和分析实现的主要港湾潮汐预报结果, 具有较高的预报 精度, 而通常的天文潮数值预报目前还难以达到潮汐表的预报精度. 本研究在建立常规天文潮数值 预报模型的基础上, 建立了基于潮汐表数据同化的天文潮数值预报模型, 并分别采用这2种模型预 报福建沿岸海域的天文潮. 其结果表明同化模型的预报结果无论是在潮时还是在潮高均明显优于 常规模型; 同化模型能显著地改善所研究的沿岸海域90个水位点中至少45个水位点的潮汐预报 结果, 而其他水位点的预报结果也有不同程度地改善.国家863 计划重大资助项目( 2006AA09A302-6

Numerical Experiments of Storm Surges Along Fujian Coast

福建沿岸风暴潮灾害严重,为研发具有快速预警能力的福建沿岸风暴潮漫堤预警辅助决策系统,建立了福建沿岸台风暴潮数值模型,并对31个历史台风引起的福建沿岸风暴潮进行了后报模拟,结果与实际较为吻合.进而分别就台风前期近中心最大风速、前期中心移动速度和前期中心移动方向对后期增水的影响进行了数值实验.结果表明:在预报的台风参数的可能变化幅度范围内,前期台风参数对后期增水的影响较小.实验获得的最大绝对差值均远小于一般的风暴潮后报误差.Storm surges induce heavily disaster along the Fujian coast.In order to develop a fast storm surge warning system for Fujian,a one-way nested coupled storm surge numerical model was established and used to simulate the storm surges induced by 31 typhoon landfalls along the Fujian coast.The results were satisfactory and numerical experiments were then performed to study the variability of storm surges induced by the cyclone parameters and which were different from those 6/12 hours before landing.Parameters such as the maximum wind speed,typhoon track,and typhoon velocity were considered in these experiments.The experiments demonstrate that these typhoon parameters,which varied in their possible ranges when they were forecasted,induced little effect on storm surges when typhoons land.And the maximum Absolute discrepant is far smaller than the error of general storm surge prediction.国家863计划重大项目(2006AA09A302-6)资

Effect of the 2010 Chile Ocean Tsunami on Seas Surrounding Taiwan

2010年2月27日南美洲智利中部近岸发生强震并引发海啸.利用海啸期间台湾周边海域验潮站的潮位资料,分析了此次海啸对台湾周边海域的影响,海啸波通过太平洋于震后25.5H到达台湾周边海域,最大波高达44CM.进而从理论上讨论了海啸传播时间和波高变化的简单计算方法,并引入了波高衰减因子.结果表明,该简单计算方法能快速且较准确地计算出海啸波的传播时间,引入的波高衰减因子,可在一定程度上为台湾周边海域海啸的方便快捷的预警提供参考.A great earthquake occurred off the central coast of Chile,South America,on February 27,2010,and produced tsunami.The data recorded by tide gauges surrounding Taiwan were analyzed in the study.After 25.5 hours of the earthquake,the tsunami wave arrived at tide gauges through the Pacific Ocean,and the maximum wave height recorded was 44 cm.Then a theoretical method was discussed to calculate the tsunami wave propagation time,otherwise wave height attenuation factor was used to measure the wave height.The results showed that the theoretical method could calculate the propagation time quickly and accurately,and the wave height attenuation factor provides a convenient and efficient reference on tsunami warning for seas surrounding Taiwan.海洋公益性行业科研专研经费项目(200905013-7

Numerical Experiments of the Influence of Tide on Waves in Taiwan Strait

引用第三代海浪模型SWAn(SIMulATIOn WAVES nEArSHOrE),首先模拟了台湾海峡冬季大风过程所致的海浪,模拟结果与浮标实测波高吻合较好;进而就潮流对海浪的影响进行了数值实验.在不同风速下,模拟了有潮流影响和无潮流影响下的有效波高,结果表明:潮流对海浪有效波高的影响呈现明显的潮周期振荡性质,对同一潮流场,波高振荡的振幅随有效波高的增大而增大,且拟合了波高振荡的平均振幅A与有效波高HS的关系,定量描述潮流对海浪的影响.The third-generation wave model SWAN(simulation waves nearshore) was used to simulate the waves under wind field measured in Taiwan Strait.The simulation results are in good agreement with buoy measured effective wave heights.Then the numerical experiments of the influence of tide on waves were studied.Under the different wind speed,the model SWAN was used to simulate the effective wave heights with and without the tide.The simulation results were compared and found that:first,the effects of tide on the waves showed significant tidal oscillations;for the same tidal field,tidal oscillation amplitude increased with the increasing of the wave height;and the relationship between the amplitude of the wave height a and the effective wave height Hs was conducted to describe the influence of tide on waves quantitatively.海洋公益性行业科研专项经费项

C反应蛋白和嗜酸性粒细胞百分比在青年输血不良反应危险因素分析中的作用

目的探讨青年患者发生输血不良事件的危险因素及与外周血C反应蛋白（CRP）及嗜酸性粒细胞百分比（EO%）的关系。方法收集2019年1月-2020年12月发生输血不良反应的66例青年患者资料，做为观察组；对照组则随机选取未发生输血反应，且入院年月、科室、疾病、血制品类型、性别与观察组分别对应的66例青年患者。分析两组患者年龄、输血史、过敏史、输血前静脉血CRP及EO%水平，绘制受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线评价输血前静脉血CRP与EO%对输血不良反应预测的效能，并使用回归分析对危险因素进一步验证。结果与对照组患者相比，观察组发生非溶血性发热反应（FNHTR）患者输血前CRP更高；观察组发生过敏性输血反应（ATR）患者输血前CRP更高，有输血史者占比更高，输血前EO%更低，差异有统计学意义（P＜0. 05）。输入不同血液品种对发生ATR和FNHTR具有差异性（P＜0. 05）。输血前CRP对诊断 FNHTR的ROC曲线下面积0.889，最佳截断值18.05 mg/L（P＜0. 05）；输血前CRP对诊断 ATR 的ROC 曲线下面积0.749，最佳截断值为17.6 mg/L（P＜0. 05）。结论输血前C反应蛋白水平是青年患者发生 FNHTR和ATR的独立危险因素，对输血不良反应的发生具有诊断价值；EO%对输血不良反应的预测价值不足

A tide-storm surge-wave coupled inundation warning system for Fujian coast

基于SWAN模式和MATLAB GUI软件建立了福建沿岸天文潮-风暴潮-台风浪耦合漫堤预警系统。该系统包含天文潮-风暴潮-台风浪耦合计算模式和海堤预警显示两部分:天文潮-风暴潮-海浪耦合水位计算采用自主研发的FETSWCM模式(Finite Element Tide-Storm Surge-Wave Coupled Model),台风浪计算采用SWAN模式(Simulation WAve Nearshore),耦合计算时FETSWCM为SWAN提供风场、水位场及流场,SWAN为FETSWCM提供波浪辐射应力;海堤预警显示基于MATLAB GUI软件交互界面,根据模式计算波浪爬高所及高程结果(天文潮-风暴潮耦合水位与波浪爬高的和)对福建沿岸海堤进行可视化预警报。使用该系统进行两场台风过程福建省沿岸的漫堤后报检验,结果表明:1312号台风过程7条海堤及1319号台风过程东山县8条海堤漫堤预警准确率为87%。A visualized inundation warning system which coupled tide, storm surge and wave was established for the Fujian coast based on FORTRAN and MATLAB GUI. The water raise height coupled tide, storm surge and wave was simulated by FETSWCM, and the wave height was simulated by SWAN. In each step, FETSWCM and SWAN shared wind, water level, current and radiation stress gradient. The warning height is based on the above simulations. The warning of the seawalls along Fujian Coast can display by MATLAB GUI. The warning of typhoon TRAMI and USAGI for 15 seawalls along Fujian Coast were successful with the accuracy of 87%.国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2013BAB04B01

A Review of Penalized Group Variable Selection Methods in High Dimensional Data

变量选择是统计建模的重要环节,选择合适的变量可以建立结构简单、含义明确、预测精准的稳健模型。在实际应用中,有些变量具有群组结构,本文概括了三类群组变量选择惩罚方法,包括处理高度相关变量、仅选择组变量、即选择组又选择单个变量的方法,着重比较了它们的统计性质和优缺点,总结了相关算法和调整参数选择的方法。最后文章归纳了相关应用情况,并讨论了最新发展方向和所面临的挑战。Variable selection is of great importance in statistical modeling.Suitable variables can make the model simple,meaningful and have favorite performance of prediction.Actually,there exist group structures among the predictors.This paper gives a review of three types of penalized group variable selection methods,including strongly correlated variable selection,group level selection and bi-level selection.We highlight their statistical properties,advantages and disadvantages.We also summarize the algorithms and tuning parameter selection.We discuss their applications,the further studies and the challenges in the end.国家社会科学基金(13&ZD148;13CTJ001); 国家自然科学基金(71471152); 国家统计局项目(2013LZ53;2012LD001

Typhoon Wind Field Model Based on the Radii of Wind Circle

首先用JElESnIAnSkI台风风场模型及美国联合台风警报中心(JTWC)整编的台风资料,计算10级和7级风圈半径,并与气象部门的发布值相比,发现两者存在较大误差.进而,在JElESnIAnSkI台风风场模型的基础上,提出一种基于最大风速半径、10级和7级风圈半径的台风风场模型,并比较两种台风风场模型的风速剖面.结果表明:该模型比包括被广泛应用的JElESnIAnSkI台风风场模型在内的前人提出的台风风场模型都更接近台风风场实况,其中10级和7级风圈半径与气象部门的发布值是一致的.The wind radii of level ten and level seven were calculated by Jelesnianski typhoon wind field model with typhoon data from Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC).The error was considerable when compared to the release value of meteorological department.Thus a new typhoon wind filed model,which was based on the radii of maximum、level ten and level seven wind speed was proposed referring to Jelesnianski model.Then the wind profiles of the two models were compared.The result showed that the typhoon wind field calculated by the new model was more closer to reality than by any other models include the Jelesnianski model,which was popular used.And the wind radii of level ten and level seven in the new model were the same to the release value of meteorological department.海洋公益性行业科研专项(200905013-7

The Simulation of Typhoon Waves in Taiwan Strait

采用第3代海浪模式SWAn(SIMulATIOn WAVES nEArSHOrE),在考虑了波浪折射、底摩擦、破碎、白浪、风能输入、非线性波波相互作用等物理过程的基础上,分别应用JElESnIAnSkI模型风场、藤田气压公式计算的梯度风场以及考虑台湾海峡和台湾岛地形影响的台风风场(陈德文台风风场)模型,数值模拟了0813号“森拉克“、0815号“蔷薇“和0908号“莫拉克“3场台风过程在台湾海峡产生的台风浪,并与浮标观测结果对比.结果表明,陈德文台风风场模型数值模拟的台风浪结果与实测符合较好,其中模拟结果的有效波高平均绝对误差为0.55M,有效波高峰值平均绝对误差为0.19M,说明其对台风浪的模拟尤其是灾害性台风浪的模拟是成功的.The third generation wave model SWAN(simulation waves nearshore)was applied to simulate the typhoon waves in Taiwan Strait,during the 0813 "Sinlaku",the 0815 "Jangmi",and the 0908 " Morakot".The model considered wave refraction,bottom friction,wave breaking,whitecapping,wind input,and nonlinear wave-wave interactions.Three kinds of wind models,Jelesnianski wind model,Fujita wind model,and the wind model that considered the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan′s topographic effects(Chen De Wen typhoon wind model),were adopted to derive the input wind velocities for SWAN wave model respectively.Compared with the buoy data,the significant wave height driven by Chen typhoon wind model showed relatively high consistence,with the mean absolute error of significant wave height and the peak significant wave height of 0.55mand 0.19mrespectively.This indicated that the simulation of typhoon waves in this study was successful.海洋公益性行业科研专项(200905013-7