福建沿岸风暴潮灾害严重,为研发具有快速预警能力的福建沿岸风暴潮漫堤预警辅助决策系统,建立了福建沿岸台风暴潮数值模型,并对31个历史台风引起的福建沿岸风暴潮进行了后报模拟,结果与实际较为吻合.进而分别就台风前期近中心最大风速、前期中心移动速度和前期中心移动方向对后期增水的影响进行了数值实验.结果表明:在预报的台风参数的可能变化幅度范围内,前期台风参数对后期增水的影响较小.实验获得的最大绝对差值均远小于一般的风暴潮后报误差.Storm surges induce heavily disaster along the Fujian coast.In order to develop a fast storm surge warning system for Fujian,a one-way nested coupled storm surge numerical model was established and used to simulate the storm surges induced by 31 typhoon landfalls along the Fujian coast.The results were satisfactory and numerical experiments were then performed to study the variability of storm surges induced by the cyclone parameters and which were different from those 6/12 hours before landing.Parameters such as the maximum wind speed,typhoon track,and typhoon velocity were considered in these experiments.The experiments demonstrate that these typhoon parameters,which varied in their possible ranges when they were forecasted,induced little effect on storm surges when typhoons land.And the maximum Absolute discrepant is far smaller than the error of general storm surge prediction.国家863计划重大项目(2006AA09A302-6)资
