本文为解决由于台风路径预报偏差而可能带来的风暴潮预警漏报、误报问题，提出一种基于假想台风增水数据库的风暴潮增水快速预报算法和基于台风路径预报概率圆的风暴潮集合预报、预警模式。首先建立了福建沿海风暴潮数值模型，并利用多年来的福建沿海实测潮位资料对该模型进行了检验，进而运用该模型研究了福建沿海风暴潮增水对台风参数改变的响应以及福建沿海风暴潮－天文潮非线性耦合效应。在此基础上研究建立了基于风暴潮增水数据库的查算方法，结合台风路径“概率圆”预报思路，提出了基于台风路径预报概率信息系统建立了福建省风暴潮漫堤预警辅助决策系统，为防灾减灾提供辅助决策支持。该系统已于2008年台风季节开始投入业务化试用。本文...Storm surge warning could be failure and misdeclared when the typhoon track forecasting deviate from the real track. A storm-surge computation method based on surge database and also an ensemble prediction model based on probability circle of typhoon track forecasting were studied to solute the problem. First of all, a one-way nested coupled storm surge numerical model was established and used to ...学位：理学硕士院系专业：海洋与环境学院环境科学与工程系_物理海洋学学号：2242006115228
