台灣股市波動性長時間之探討

This paper discusses the changes of Taiwan stock market volatility and attempts to understand the relation between some variables and stock volatility. We find that the stock market volatility is the largest in the period between 1986 and 1990 and the standard error of Taiwan stock volatility after 1986 is higher than the standard error of Taiwan stock volatility before 1986 regardless of daily or month data. In the whole period, We find that Taiwan stock market exits volatility asymmetry. Because we want to know what moves the stock market volatility, we sort those variables by three aspects, such as macroeconomic, system and transaction. The empirical results show that authorizing the investment trust to establish and options trading, bring two parties together by computers, the changes of limits and the volume of stock market have effects upon the stock volatility. In the part of macroeconomic, we find the discount rate has the negative effect upon the stock volatility.本文以EGARCH模型探討台灣股市波動性的變化以及影響的相關因素，研究期間為民國61年至94年。從台灣股市波動性基本統計量中，發現台灣股市在民國75年至民國79年這段期間波動性最大，並且不管在日資料或月資料可以看出在民國75年之後，台灣股市標準差明顯高於民國75年以前。在所研究的整體期間內，台灣股市波動顯著存在不對稱性。 在影響因素則分別由交易面、制度面與總體經濟面，探討影響股市波動性的相關因素。實證結果發現：在開放投信、電腦撮合制度的實施、漲跌幅限制調整、開放選擇權交易與股市成交量對股市波動性有顯著影響。在總體經濟部分，發現貼現率對股市波動性有顯著的負影響。目 錄 頁 次 第一章緒論 第一節 研究動機.......................................1 第二節 台灣股市歷史回顧...............................1 第二章 文獻回顧.......................................4 第三章 研究設計 第一節 資料來源與處理 1.時間趨勢圖...............................9 2.資料檢定.................................9 第二節 模型測試、檢定與估計 1.條件平均數模型配置.......................11 2.波動性估計與條件變異數方程式建立.........12 第三節 完整模型建立...................................14 第四章 結論與建議 第一節 加權指數基本統計量特徵.........................17 第二節 台灣股市波動性的變化...........................17 第三節 各變數對股市波動性影響.........................18 第四節 結論...........................................20 第五節 後續研究建議...................................21 參考文獻..............................................45 參考書目..............................................50 表目錄 表一 : 台灣股市市值、成交值與流通在外股數.............22 表二：台灣股市基本統計量..............................24 表三：民國60年至94年月報酬率-最高與最低前20名.........25 表四：台灣股市與其他主要國家股市週轉率................26 表五：台灣股市交易人結構..............................26 表六：股票漲跌幅度調整................................27 表七：台灣期貨指數與摩根台指期貨契約差異..............29 表八 : 總體經濟變數基本統計量.........................30 表九：變數單根檢定....................................30 表十：條件平均數選取..................................30 表十一：GARCH(1,1)與EGARCH(1,1)比較表.................31 表十二 :子期間EGARCH模型比較..........................32 表十三 :兩段期間EGARCH模型比較........................33 表十四：制度面與交易面對股市波動影響..................34 表十五：總體經濟變數對股市波動影響....................35 表十六：未預期總體經濟變數對股市波動影響..............36 表十七:總體經濟變數與未預期總體經濟變數對股市波動影響.37 表十八：制度面、交易面與總體經濟變數對股市波動影響....38 表十九：兩段期間總體經濟變數對股市波動影響比較........39 圖目錄 圖一：台灣股市本益比..................................40 圖二：台灣股市月週轉率時間趨勢圖......................40 圖三:台灣股價指數時間趨勢圖...........................41 圖四:消費者物價指數趨勢圖.............................41 圖五:工業生產指數時間趨勢圖...........................42 圖六:貼現率時間趨勢圖.................................42 圖七:M1B貨幣供給量時間趨勢圖..........................43 圖八:新台幣對美元匯價時間趨勢圖.......................43 圖九:台灣股市月成交量時間趨勢圖.......................4

[[alternative]]Constructing an IFRS-based Pricing and Resources Management Decision System

[[abstract]]我國自2013 年全面採用國際會計準則（International Financial Reporting Standard, IFRS）編製財務報告，為使中小企業產業具有與國際金融競爭力，適應國際基金融環境，建構以IFRS 為基礎之報價與資源管理決策系統，導入IFRS 將有助於國內組織之金融作業於國際金融體系接軌，主要應用決策支援系統概念建置本資訊系統，主要目的為協助中小企業管理人，使用IFRS 為基礎的資源管理系統，對於物料、產品及設備進行詳細控管，協助公司用戶掌控生產相關的資源配置；此外，在較完整的資源管理下，可對一般訂單與特殊訂單進行自動報價建議，確保用戶在能獲利的狀況下，更能提供較具競爭力的報價內容。[[abstract]]Since 2013, full adoption of International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) for financial reporting, to enable small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have with the international financial competitiveness and to adapt the international financial environment based construct to IFRS-based pricing and resource management decision system. The import of IFRS will help domestic organizations financial operating to be integrated with international financial system. In addition, the proposed decision support system mainly for the purpose of assisting SMEs managers to adopt IFRS-based pricing and resources management system and monitor the materials,products and equipment. The goal is to conduct a detailed monitoring and help corporate users to control production-related allocation of resources. Afterward, a more complete resource management, it can be the general orders and special orders automatically offer recommendations to ensure that users are able to gain the benefits. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to develop an IFRS-based pricing and resource management to support SMEs operations

西印度櫻桃灰黴病的首度報導

Gray mold of Jamaica cherry caused by Botrytis cinerea was first found in Taiwan during March to June of 2005. The typical symptom of gray mold showed abundant gray mycelia and conidia was observed on the infected fruit of Jamaica cherry after raining season. The pathogen was isolated from infected fruit and cultured on PDA for further fungal morphological observation and confirming its pathogenicity according to Koch's postulates. Results of morphological data and pathogenicity test showed that the gray mold of Jamaica cherry was caused by B. cinerea. 由Botrytis cinerea引起的西印度櫻桃灰黴病，於2005年3至6月間在台灣首次被發現。在梅雨季節的雨後，受感染的西印度櫻桃果實部位出現典型灰黴病病徵，病徵上覆蓋一層灰色黴狀物及孢子。由病組織上分離病原菌並培養於馬鈴薯葡萄糖洋菜培養基上，以觀察其型態特徵；另依柯霍氏法則(Koch's postulates)確定其病原性。由病原菌型態、病原性及對溫度的反應等結果證實西印度櫻桃灰黴病確由B. cinerea所引起

臺灣地區大專院校教師對學校評價的影響機制：學校屬性與教師分級的區隔作用 Taiwanese College Instructors’ Evaluation of Their Schools: The Differences Among School Attributes and Instructor Ranks

在高等教育經營環境日趨嚴苛的情形下，如何讓所屬教職員能認同於學校，並給予高評價，願意努力付出，增進學校榮譽，提高競爭力，當是高等教育經營管理重要的課題。然而，在如何促進大專院校教師對任教學校有高度正面評價的重要問題上，卻仍少有研究關注於不同職場屬性（如公／私立、綜合／科技），與教師分級制度所可能導致的差異性，並深入探討造成差異性的因素。基於此，本研究以臺灣高等教育整合資料庫的大專教師調查資料，對上述重要的研究議題進行分析。研究結果顯示：相較於私立技職院校，公立大學教師在教師聘用、專業發展、待遇福利，職場氛圍等工作環境之滿意度較低，而使其對所任教的學校評價較低。其次，公立技職教師，對於教師任用、專業發展、待遇福利等方面的滿意度都低於私立技職院校，因而對所任教學校的評價也就明顯較低。另外，教授與副教授對學校設備、人力資源、教師任用、專業發展、待遇福利與職場氛圍等，明顯比助理教授有較高的滿意度，因而對所任教的學校也就有較高的評價，而助理教授覺得學校較不夠友善，給的評價也就最低。 Managing higher education is becoming increasingly difficult. How to strengthen the identifications, evaluations, and dedications of faculties to the reputation and competitiveness of their institutions is a critical issue in managing higher education. Little research on how to promote the identification of college instructors with their institutions has focused on differences among job attributes (e.g., public/private, general/technological, and science) and instructor ranks as well as the factors contributing to the differences. This study attempted to answer these questions by using a sample of college instructors obtained from the Taiwan Integrated Postsecondary Education Database. The results showed that compared with instructors at private vocational colleges, instructors at public universities were less satisfied with employment, professional development, salary and benefits, and workplace atmosphere of their institutions and tended to assign relatively lower ratings to their schools. In addition, instructors at public vocational colleges were less satisfied with employment, professional development, and the salary and benefits of their institutions compared with their counterparts at private vocational colleges, which lead to the low rating of their institutions. Analysis of differences according to rank revealed that professors and associate professors were significantly more satisfied than assistant professors with their schools in the aspects of facilities, human resources, employment, professional development, salary and benefits, and workplace atmosphere. Thus, they assigned higher ratings to their schools. Associate professors tended to identify their schools as insufficiently friendly, and thus, their ratings of their schools were the lowest