Robust recursive algorithm for real-time co-correction model

利用遥测系统实时监测水情资料,由于遥测系统自身的原因以及水文要素测量的具体要求,数据常常携带异常误差.采用有异常误差的实测流量资料对实时校正模型进行参数辨识,要求算法既能抵御异常误差的影响,又具有较强的实时跟踪能力,以适应实时洪水预报的要求.在递推最小二乘算法的基础上,引入抗差理论,削弱异常值对参数估计的影响;引入遗忘因子,实时跟踪模型时变参数的变化.计算实例表明,带有遗忘因子的抗差递推最小二乘算法对异常误差不敏感,又具有较强的实时跟踪能力.Data observed by telemetric system often carries outliers resulting from instrument malfunctioning, false signal acquisition because of signal leak, collision and disturbance during signal transmission, and special measuring demand of hydrologic variable, in addition to unavoidable random errors. When the parameters of real-time co-correction model are estimated by the abnormal data, the algorithm must not only be able to resist the effect of the outliers, but also have ability for real-time tracing of the changes of parameters. In this paper, a robust recursive least-squares algorithm with a forgetting factor is produced based on the recursive least-squares algorithm. And an example is given to demonstrate that the algorithm is insensitive to the outliers and adapts to the time-varying parameter estimation.国家自然科学基金项目(40701178)资

流域用水系统协调发展分析

[摘要]：采用复合系统和协调发展理论与方法, 提出同步协调方程, 构建了流域各用水子系统间的协调发展评价方法, 并 将其运用于福建九龙江流域。结果表明: 九龙江流域在过去5年中, 用水系统协调发展程度较高, 同时存在波动。国家自然科学基金资助项目( 40701178

Incentive Mechanism of Community Participation in Management of Eco-tourism Resource-A Case Study on Eco-tourism in the East Coastal Region of Xiamen Island.

以厦门岛东海岸区 (黄厝 )生态旅游开发为例 ,提出在生态资源开发、管理过程中 ,实现社区公众有效参与、社区居民的生活水平得到提高的同时 ,达到生态保护目的的保障机制———生态旅游股份合作制。进而就厦门岛东海岸区生态旅游股份合作制运行框架进行了探讨。With the development of eco-tourism along the east coastal region of Xiamen Island as a case for study, a cooperative shares system is put forward for development of eco-tourism as a mechanism to guarantee effective community participation,to improve the living standard of the local residents and to protect the ecology in the processes of exploiting and managing the ecological resources.On such a basis,exploration is made on an operational framework of the cooperative shares system for development of eco-tourism in the east coastal region of Xiamen Island.加拿大国际发展署 (CIDA)资助 ;; 中、加、越 3国 7高校合作开展的CBCM项目(#UPCDTier1ProgramO1843-S5 330 5 )资

Studies on strategic environmental assessment for sustainable development in coastal zone.

战略环境评价(SEA)就是对政策、计划/规划及其各种替代方案的环境影响进行规范的、系统的、综合的分析和评价过程.以海岸带可持续发展为目标的SEA应遵循与战略决策过程紧密结合、综合、多元评价标准及公众参与4个基本原则进行厦门岛东部海岸发展规划的战略环境评价案例研究.：The strategic environmental assessment (SEA) is discussed and proved as an effective tool to realize the sustainable development in coastal zone in aspects of complex natural ecosystem, multiple human activities and disadvantages of project EIA in coastal zone. Four basic principles should be followed for developing the SEA in coastal zone, including close integration with decision-making, comprehension, multiple assessment criterion and public participation. These should be applied for assessing the planning of east coastal zone of Xiamen.加拿大国际发展署资助项目!(#UPCD Tier1 Program O1843-S53305

Urban Planning and Sustainable Development

城市可持续发展是人类全面实施可持续发展战略的一个重要方面 ,它有其特定的内涵。城市规划是实施城市可持续发展战略的有效工具 ,在城市规划中引入可持续发展理论是引导城市可持续发展的重要一环。以可持续发展为原则的城市规划应突出其未来导向性、环境导向性、社会导向性的特点 ,文章就其含义及实现途径进行了分析和探讨。Urban sustainable development is an important part of sustainable development strategy. The urban planning is an effective means to put into effect sustainable development strategy in city. It is also an important link to guide urban sustainable development when sustainable development theory was used in the urban planning. According to sustainable development principle, the urban planning should have characteristics of tendency towards future, towards eco-environmental protection and towards community.加拿大国际发展署 (CIDA)支持;; 中、加、越三方合作开展的公众基础的保护与管理项目资

Control Divisions of Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution at Watershed Scale Based on GIS and Models

采用GIS技术和USLE,SCS-CN,污染物流失经验模型及AnnAGNPS机理模型相结合,对农业集约化程度较高的南方中等尺度流域进行农业非点源污染控制区划.结果表明:利用GIS和经验模型回答了流域农业非点源污染氮磷来源与贡献,标识了农业非点源污染氮磷等污染物的关键源区,发挥了经验模型所需模型参数少、研究尺度较大、效率较高的优点,通过GIS的栅格数据空间分析功能,实现了流域非点源污染的分布式模拟,识别了NPS的关键源区.借助AnnAGNPS机理模型,在模型得以校验的前提下,模拟了非点源污染管理措施方案.以模型和GIS的定量结果为依据,对九龙江流域农业非点源污染控制进行了区划,共划分了水土流失控制区、生猪养殖+水土流失控制区、化肥施用+生猪养殖控制区、水土流失+化肥施用控制区及化肥施用+水土流失控制区5类控制单元. 【英文摘要】 GIS technology and USLE,SCS-CN,nutrient losses empirical equations and AnnAGNPS model were coupled to carry on control divisions of NPS in a mediumsized watershed,located in southeast of China,with relative strong intensive agricultural activities.The results show that the integration of GIS with empirical models can help analyze major sources and contributors of NPS,and identify the critical source areas of NPS.This can not only develop the advantages of empirical equations,e.g.requiring less model paramet...福建省科技重大攻关项目(2002H009

Watershed Level Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Discharge Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools

采用故障树及概率分析方法,对九龙江流域氮的流失风险进行定性与定量评价.通过建立故障树定性分析了九龙江流域氮流失的主要风险来源.结果表明,氮流失风险大小主要与肥料施用、畜禽养殖废物的处置及农田耕作有关.在GIS技术支持下,通过土地利用、土壤等数据的计算,结合田间调查结果与专家意见,确定故障树基本故障事件概率,继而对氮流失风险进行定量评价.最佳管理措施模拟评价结果表明,降低施肥水平,在养殖场周边建立植被过滤带,增加河岸林截留入河沉积物等措施可以有效降低氮流失风险,在九龙江流域可以考虑优先实施. 【英文摘要】 Probabilistic risk assessment(PRA) for the discharge of excess nitrogen was conducted for Jiulong River watershed,an agricultural watershed in Southeast China.Using fault tree analysis,the probability of occurrence for excessive nitrogen discharge to the river during a runoff event was qualitatively evaluated.It was showed that the risk of excess nitrogen discharge was mainly related to crop and livestock practices in the watershed.Under the support of GIS,land use,soil type,management practices and expert ...福建省“十五”重大科技攻关计划项目(2002H009

Patterns of Agricultural Sustainable Development in Haiyuan County

海原位于宁夏南部山区,农业在海原县国民经济中占有举足轻重的地位。本文分析了海原县农业生产的过去、现状及存在的问题,剖析了海原县光、温、水、土等农业资源,并以可持续发展为理论基础,对海原今后农业发展模式进行了初步探讨,提出了减少耕地面积,退耕还林还草,大力发展畜牧业,充分利用雨水资源,提高雨水集蓄节灌综合技术,建立集水型生态农业,发展精细农业的可持续发展对策。Haiyuan is located in southern of the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.Agriculture plays a key role on the local economy.In this paper,the pass & present agricultural conditions and existing agriculture problems in Haiyuan were presented.Local agricultural resources such as light,temperature,water and soils were analyzed.In addition,based upon the theory of sustainable development,discussions toward the patterns of agricultural sustainable development in Haiyuan County were carried on.The authors' opinions included as follows:①decreasing the cropland,synchronously increasing forestry & grasses and adequately developing stock raising;②making fully use of rainwater resource,improving the integrated technologies of rainwater' collection,storage,saving and irrigations;③establishing local ecological agriculture;④developing local precision agriculture

Review on Optimization of Water Pollution Loads Allocation

水污染负荷优化分配是总量控制的关键技术要点,分配的原则包括可持续性、公平性、技术可行性和方案可操作性。负荷总量分配方法可分为等比例分配法、费用最小分配法和按贡献率削减排放量分配法三类。包括各种线性规划、非线性规划和动态规划在内的数学规划模型都可应用于负荷总量分配,其中以线性规划模型应用最为广泛成熟,同时随机性、模糊性和多目标的考虑正成为新的发展趋势。如何兼顾公平和效率、将研究拓展到近岸海域及在负荷分配时考虑非点源将会是重要而有意义的

Environmental economic policy designed to control watershed agricultural non-point pollution——A case study from Jiulong River Watershed of Fujian Province

阐述了环境经济手段在我国农业非点源污染控制中应用的必要性和可行性。并结合福建省九龙江流域农业非点源污染的主要问题,提出“畜禽养殖税(费)、排污权交易,化肥和农药施用税(费)、补贴、促险,退耕补贴、水保押金,流域共同治理基金、排污配额交易”等环境经济手段及其应用形式,并分析论证了其实施后的费用效果和可行性。 【英文摘要】 The necessity and feasibility of special environmental economic policies to control agricultural non-point source pollution were briefly analyzed.Facing serious non-point pollution in Jiulong River,several kinds and formats of economic policies were put forward,i.e.feeding taxes,emission taxes,and tradable permits on livestock and poultry;taxes,charges,subsidies and insurance of using fertilizer and pesticide;subsidies of quitting cultivation and deposits for soil and water conservation;funds and tradable p...“十五”福建省重大科技攻关项目(2002H009);; 福建省发展与计划委员会项目(2003)资