The Identification of Fiscal Policy Shocks, Monetary Policy Rules and Capacity Excess ——Three essays on China's macroeconomic policies

本文考察了当前中国宏观经济学研究中的三个主题，即财政政策冲击的识别、货币规则的比较和产能过剩的经济学解释。 第二章考察了中国财政政策冲击效应的识别问题，与货币政策冲击识别相比，财政政策的识别也同样重要，然而，国内对其的研究并不充分。鉴于此，本文在结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型中选用符号约束对中国财政政策冲击来识别，利用中国1997年第1季度至2012年第4季度数据进行实证分析发现，名义货币供给和利率等经济变量与产出、消费等真实经济变量的联系并不紧密；财政政策冲击对名义变量的效应不显著，政府支出对实际产出的冲击短期内不显著，但在长期内存在负效应；在短期内中国政府支出对实际投资存在“挤出效应”。...This dissertation has investigated three topics of macro-economic issues in China, which are: the identification of fiscal policy shocks, estimating and comparing China’s monetary policy rules and the study on China’s capacity excess, respectively. In the second chapter we study the identification of fiscal policy shocks in China. We chose sign restrictions to identify the fiscal policy shocks of...学位：经济学博士院系专业：王亚南经济研究院_金融学学号：2772008015048

台湾广播联播网与战略联盟研究

本文着眼于台湾广播产业生态环境,梳理台湾广播市场在导入竞争机制后联播网的发展概况;并总览台湾广播产业布局,对立足于资源互补与共享的台湾电台战略联盟进行剖析,力图全面呈现台湾广播产业的发展图景。国家社科基金重大委托项目“‘一国两制’新闻学研究”(项目编号:08@ZH019)的研究成

Development and the Breakthrough Path of China Taiwan's Digital Publishing Industry

检视台湾出版业数字化转型的历程与现状,指出台湾数字出版产业面临产业链缺乏有效整合以及商业运营模式不健全等困境,在重申内容对于数字出版重要性的同时,提出为适应数字时代深层范式的转变,台湾数字出版产业应树立“以信息服务为中心“的理念,以受众为导向,产制多元化的数字内容产品,并寻求产业链条的深度整合。Examine the progress of Taiwan digital publishing industry point out that it has been suffering from the lack of effective integration of industrial chain and the business model is not good enough.In order to adapt to the deep paradigm shift in the digital age,Taiwan's digital publishing should establish an "information servicecentered" philosophy while reaffirming the importance of content for digital publishing and be more audience-oriented, so as to create a wide range of digital content and products, and to deepen the integration of the industrial chain

Estimating and Comparing China's Monetary Policy Rules within a DSGE Model

本文在dSgE模型框架下用贝叶斯方法对中国货币政策的利率规则和数量规则进行了估计,并比较了不同货币规则模型对数据的解释和预测能力,提供了货币规则随中国货币政策调控机制改革演化的证据。本文发现数量规则比利率规则在整体上更能解释中国的货币政策,但是利率规则的解释能力随着利率市场化改革的深入而逐渐提高,此外在利率规则中加入货币因素能显著提高模型对数据的解释和预测能力。We estimate and compare the quantity rule to the price rule of China's monetary policy within a DSGE model using the Bayesian approach.We find evidences that the capacity of different rules in explaining China's monetary policy is evolving according to the reform progress in financial market regime.Before 1998 when the People's Bank of China abandoned the traditional central-planning system of allocating funding to stateowned enterprises,the quantity rule performs better than the price rule to explain China's monetary policy.After 1998,the price rule explains China's monetary policy more efficiently during the whole sample from 1994 to 2010 and each subsample.However,a hybrid rule of adding quantity factor in the interest rate rule performs better than both the quantity rule and interest rate rule.国家自然科学基金青年项目(70903053); 青年—面上连续项目(71273007)的资

Analysis of the clinical examples of gastralgia treated by the Tujia famous doctor professor XIANG Guo-ding with cold herbs combining warm herbs as the principal treatment

胃脘痛是消化系统临床常见的中医病证,其病因错综复杂,如治不得法,可致病情反复,变证较多。土家族名老中医向国鼎教授针对胃脘痛的常见病因病机,遵循“同病异治“等中医辨证论治法则,认为治疗消化系统疾患用药切忌偏寒偏热,寒温互用为宜,临证中常以百合与乌药、黄连与吴茱萸、肉桂与黄连等寒温相配药对为主并随证化裁来治疗胃脘痛,取得明显疗效。文章通过选取其晚年的3则典型临证验案,将其采用寒温药并用为主治疗胃脘痛的经验介绍如下。Gastralgia is the clinical common disease or symptom of stomach with anfractuous etiological factor.If gastralgia isn't treated accurately,the pathogenetic condition may be repeated and the other symptoms may occur.Professor XIANG Guo-ding is the Tujia well-known old doctor of traditional Chinese medicine in Hubei and Hunan national minority area.To aim directly at the common etiological factor and pathogenesis of gastralgia,he thinks that if treating gastralgia should follow the rule of 'same disease different treatments' based on Zheng differentiation-treatment,and the medication of traditional Chinese herbs should avoid excessively cold or heat and applying the cold property drug and warm property drug together was best.So he uses the Lilii bulbus and Linderae radix,Coptidis rhizoma and Euodiae fructus,Cinnamomi cortex and Coptidis rhizoma Couple-drugs as the principal drug to treat gastralgia and often obtains good curative effect.In view of the professor XIANG Guo-ding's realization to the gastralgia,the article chosed his three typical clinical cases of treating gastralgia in old age.The experience was introduced to be as follows

Evaluation on difference of therapeutic efficacy of Jiawei Xiaoyao Granules and Pills in treatment of emotional disorder during perimenopause based on Greene Climacteric Scale

目的:在前期加味逍遥丸治疗围绝经期情绪障碍具有比较优势的基础上,基于grEEnE量表探讨其颗粒剂和丸剂不同剂型间疗效差异。方法:经筛选后患有情绪障碍的围绝经期女性75例随机等分为A、b、C3组,分别对应采用帕罗西汀、加味逍遥丸和加味逍遥颗粒剂治疗8周。所有患者在治疗前后各进行1次grEEnE及其子因子评定,并在观察期结束时进行TESS评定。结果:grEEnE总分差及其焦虑、抑郁因子分差:3种治疗方法均能改善,且相互间无显著差异;grEEnE性因子和血管因子分差:后二组均优于A组(P<0.01);TESS评分:与A组比较,b、C组均有统计学意义(P<0.01),评分均小于A组,且后二组间无显著差异。结论:加味逍遥的2种剂型间疗效无显著差异,考虑到帕罗西汀的不良反应,治疗该病加味逍遥的2种剂型都值得推荐。Objective: To investigate the difference in therapeutic efficacy between Jiawei Xiaoyao Granules and pills based on the preliminary research of treating emotional disorder during perimenopause with Jiawei Xiaoyao Pills and Greene Climacteric Scale.Methods: 75 female patients with emotional disorder during perimenopause were slected and randomly divided into 3 groups as group A, B and C.Patients in the 3 groups were treated with paroxetine, Jiawei Xiaoyao Pills and Jiawei Xiaoyao Granules respectively for 8 weeks.Greene and Greene factors assessment were carried out in all the patients before and after treatment, and the TESS assessment was carried out at the end of the observation period.Results: The three therapies all could improve the gap in total score of Greene and its factors as anxiety and depressed, and the difference among these three groups was no significant.The factors of Greene and gap in score of vascular factors of group B and C was better than that of group A(P<0.01).The difference in TESS score between group A and group B and C was significant(P<0.01), while the difference between group B and group C was not significant.Conclusion: The difference in curative effect between the two formulations was not significant.Because of the adverse reactions of paroxetine, in the treatment of emotional disorder during perimenopause, the two formulations of Jiawei Xiaoyao Powder were worth to be recommended.国家自然科学青年基金项目(No.81302960)~

关于住房按揭贷款风险评估研究的若干问题

田超岳，现为西南财经大学经济学院讲师，获乔治·华盛顿大学经济学博士学位。电子邮箱:[email protected]。中国人有强烈的拥有房屋的热情。根据中国社会科学院社会学研究所2016年《社会蓝皮书》的数据,2015年中国家庭住房自有率超过了95%,更有接近20%的家庭拥有两套以上的住房。大部分中国居民需要以借款形式来支付房屋的购买款。我们可以自然地理解中国房地产信贷市场会影响到大部分居民。在中国,以所购房产为抵押而取得购房贷款的形式在法律上叫做住房按揭贷款。金融实 务中,住房按揭贷款一定是抵押贷款,但住房抵押贷款的用途可能是购房,也可以是与住房毫无关系的活动

基于多个项目分解体系集成的数学模型与信息编码

分析了大型建设项目集成化管理中存在的问题,考虑到国家法律法规及部门规范等约束条件,建立了结构分解体系的划分准则数学模型和基于信息交互的多个项目结构分解体系的数学模型。在参考国内外各种项目编码原则的基础上,提出了统一的编码方案并进行了案例研究